Recall Backers Assert Victory in Signature Drive

SACRAMENTO -- Leaders of a campaign to oust Gov. Gray Davis ended their signature drive Monday, saying they had gathered more than enough to put the Democratic governor’s fate in the hands of voters in what would be California’s first statewide recall election.

The signed petitions, which accuse Davis of “gross mismanagement,” must be verified by county election officials and certified by Secretary of State Kevin Shelley. If enough signatures are verified, state officials would set an election date either in the fall or next March, with voters deciding whether to remove Davis from office and at the same time selecting a replacement.

“We’re done,” said Dave Gilliard, director of Rescue California, a pro-recall group founded by U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Vista), the campaign’s main financier and the first declared candidate for governor in a potential recall election. “Today we have been calling in everyone from the field, stopping the paid signature campaign.”

That could set off a chain of legal and political contests, as candidates consider their options and opponents of the recall debate whether to challenge it in court. Already, some officials said, the recall threat is having a damaging impact on state finances.

“This is as historic a date for the recall movement as Proposition 13 was for the ballot initiative,” said Dan Schnur, a Republican political consultant. “Whether or not Davis is removed from office, this is going to be something that historians look back at as an expression of direct democracy in a way that’s never been accomplished. For some people, it’s a great day. For others, it’s a day that will live in infamy.”

Recall strategists said they were confident they had more than 1.2 million signatures, enough to force the election. But the decision to stop collecting more was seen as a risky move by some political analysts, because of the legal vagaries of signature-gathering for ballot initiatives and recall efforts.

“I’ve seen too many times where people think they’re going to get an issue on the ballot or even a candidate on the ballot, and it doesn’t happen,” said Darry Sragow, a Democratic consultant. “The fact that they’re stopping is curious. This is a business where the count is very unforgiving and there can be endless legal challenges.”

Democrats and Republicans, in fact, now expect Davis and his supporters to unleash a legal counterattack, contesting such issues as whether signature gatherers met the specified requirements or misrepresented their cause, analysts said. Workers for Rescue California were paid based on the number of valid signatures they obtained.

Evolving rapidly from a topic of discussion on conservative talk radio into a statewide campaign, the effort to remove Davis from office reached critical mass in recent weeks after an infusion of more than $800,000 from Issa.

“Without Darrell Issa writing the checks, we wouldn’t even be entertaining the notion that the recall would qualify,” said Sragow. “If the recall does qualify, then the fight begins. And it’s going to be an absolutely tumultuous time. What you’re doing is guaranteeing absolute chaos through 2004 if this happens.”

The only other declared candidate to replace Davis is Peter Camejo, the failed Green Party candidate for governor last November. Other Republicans believed to be considering a run include actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan and Bill Simon Jr., the losing Republican candidate against Davis in last year’s election. So far, prominent state Democrats have insisted that they will stand by the governor and not appear on the ballot.

Rescue California officials said they have 1.2 million signatures, and two other anti-Davis groups claim to have another 200,000 between them. Election experts say the 1.2-million mark is usually necessary to ensure that at least 897,158 signatures would be proved valid.

The signatures would be sent for verification to election officials in the counties where they were collected. By late August, those officials would pass the signatures to Shelley, who would declare whether the drive has met all legal requirements. If so, the Constitution would then compel Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to call for an election. If not, recall workers would have until Sept. 3 to collect more signatures, if they chose.

Davis faces an uphill fight as he attempts to retain his office: In a Los Angeles Times poll released last week, only 22% of voters gave the governor a favorable approval rating and 51% said they would cast ballots to unseat him if a recall election were held today.

As recall supporters claimed victory in the signature-gathering phase of the campaign, California’s top financial officials said the Republican-led effort was already damaging the state economy and deepening a budget impasse at the Capitol.

Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly -- both Democrats -- called on Republican Senate Leader Jim Brulte and other GOP lawmakers to find common ground with legislative Democrats.

Noting the lack of a state budget and the divisions between Democrats and Republicans over how to repair a $38-billion gap between state spending and tax collections, Angelides said there was evidence of an “unfortunate linking of the budget to the recall” by Republicans trying to embarrass Davis. Brulte “has an obligation to show that the recall and the budget are not linked to each other by stopping the budget stalemate and being willing to have the Republicans come to the table,” he said.

Brulte and GOP Assembly Leader Dave Cox (R-Fair Oaks) have denied any link between the recall and their refusal to vote for a budget that increases taxes. Both have publicly steered clear of the recall campaign, but other Republican lawmakers -- including Assemblyman John Campbell (R-Irvine), the budget chief of Assembly Republicans -- are openly supporting the effort to remove Davis.

There was little action on the budget front Monday, as Democrats rejected suggestions from Cox that lawmakers were on the verge of a deal.

“We’re this close,” Cox said at a Capitol news conference, his thumb an inch apart from his other fingers.

Other lawmakers quickly discounted the notion that a conclusion to the budget impasse was at hand.

“I don’t have a clue as to what he’s referring to,” said Assembly Speaker Herb J. Wesson Jr. (D-Culver City). “We’re still pretty far apart.”

The divide between Republicans and Democrats was clear on Sunday night, when the Assembly voted on a GOP budget plan that includes no new taxes.

While the GOP said taxes could be avoided with a mere 4.2% reduction in state spending -- amounting to $3.4 billion -- Democrats went into detail about what kind of cuts that would require. Among them: the equivalent of shutting down a large University of California and California State University campus, postponing kindergarten enrollment one year for 110,000 children and eliminating health care for hundreds of thousands of Californians.

“They say this is just a 4% cut,” Wesson said. “It’s more than that. This is the total elimination of programs. This is delaying for a year 4-year-olds going to kindergarten. This is the elimination of various services to foster children. This is serious.”

There does not seem to be much more momentum in the Senate, the more pragmatic house in the Capitol, where many involved in the budget process expect the final deal to be brokered. In the next few days, the Senate is expected to put on a show similar to what the Assembly went through Sunday, where Republicans would propose cuts that will likely be rejected by Democrats.

Wesson added his voice to those accusing Republicans of trying to use the budget debate as an opportunity to inflict further damage on Davis.

“I do believe there are individuals that would be willing to take California to hell to take out Gray Davis, and I’m appalled by that,” said Wesson.

In a statement, Brulte disputed that. “The Democrats’ inability to reduce spending is the reason we don’t have a budget,” the Republican leader said. “Their desire to overspend is the only obstacle.”

In their comments to reporters, Angelides and Westly said the recall was adding to Wall Street’s uneasiness toward California and could be a contributing factor to a downgrading in the state’s credit rating. That could cost California taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars in additional borrowing costs, they said.

Recall supporters, however, rejected suggestions that their effort was responsible for the budget quagmire or the state’s flagging economy.

“The budget impasse last year went until September and there was no recall, so that allegation is ridiculous,” said Gilliard. “As far as the state’s economy, recalling Gray Davis is the best thing we could do for the state economy right now.”

Both Moody’s Investor Services and Standard & Poor’s put California on notice last week that they are poised to downgrade the state if a balanced budget is not passed soon.

Such a downgrade could cost California taxpayers as much as $850 million on bonds that have been approved but not yet issued, Angelides said.

S&P; told investors the warning reflects “the state’s lack of progress in adopting a fiscal 2004 budget and the diminishing prospects that meaningful structural budget reform will result from an enacted budget.”

The S&P; report advised that “passage of a new budget may also be delayed due to the increasing likelihood that a recall petition for the governorship will make the ballot.”

But the recall wasn’t the only problem the bond raters at S&P; saw.

Their report also cited “the large number of relatively new and inexperienced legislators due to term limits; the drawing of legislative districts that have intensified partisan differences; intensified lobbying by various interest groups; the possibility of challenges to the state’s recent implementation of motor vehicle license fee tax rate increases; and the enormous magnitude of the state’s $38.2-billion projected accumulated budget gap, compared to fiscal 2003 total estimated general fund revenues of just $67.8 billion.”

Davis, meanwhile, has tried to keep the recall at a distance and spent Monday in Los Angeles, visiting Marvin Elementary School in the Fairfax District to host a discussion about proposed changes to the budget by Republicans.

During a round-table discussion that included Los Angeles Unified School District Supt. Roy Romer and members of the teachers union and the PTA, Davis denounced Republican proposals to delay the start of kindergarten.

Romer and others said they were concerned about the emotional impact of the GOP proposals.

“It is unconscionable for anyone to balance the budget on the backs of children,” said Marguerite LaMonte, a school board member.

Times staff writers Peter Nicholas in Sacramento and Kathleen Flynn in Los Angeles contributed to this report.

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(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Recall timeline

Petitioners seeking to recall Gov. Gray Davis believe they have enough registered voter signatures -- at least 897,158 -- to qualify for the ballot. A list of next steps:

* Petitioners give signatures to election officials in counties where signings occurred. Counting begins.

* Verification continues through July 16.

* By as early as July 23, results are sent to Secretary of State Kevin Shelley.

* As early as July 24, Shelley could certify the petitions if everything is in order. If it is not, certification could occur after a final reporting deadline Aug. 22.

* Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante must call a special election within 60 to 80 days of certification, unless there already is a statewide election within 180 days.

* Generally, if certification falls before Sept. 4, the election would be in the fall. If after Sept. 4, the election would probably be in March.

* Candidates to replace the governor must file for office at least 59 days before the election. Each must present 65 nomination signatures and pay $3,500, or they can avoid the fee by gathering at least 10,000 nomination signatures.

Source: California secretary of state, www.ss.ca.gov/ and click on

Recall Information.

Los Angeles Times