Dean’s Iowa TV Ads May Set Spending Record

Howard Dean apparently has bought more television advertising in Iowa than any previous presidential candidate, underscoring the advantage he gained by opting out of the public financing system.

Dean’s decision freed him from the system’s spending caps for each state during the primary season, and the former Vermont governor poured more than $2.4 million into television advertising in Iowa from June 1 through Jan. 9, according to a study conducted by TNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group.

His total is likely to exceed $2.7 million by Monday, when Iowa Democrats hold their caucuses. Although exact figures for previous campaigns aren’t available, many analysts agree that his spending is a record.

“I would challenge anyone to say it’s not the most,” said Bill Dal Col, the campaign manager for Republican Steve Forbes, whose Iowa advertising blitz during the 1996 campaign cost about half as much.

“It is very safe to say this is the most ever spent,” says Evan Tracey, the chief operating officer for CMAG, which tracks campaign advertising for The Times.

Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, who also decided against taking public money for his presidential bid, has spent the second most on Iowa TV ads -- $1.9 million.

The spending by Dean and Kerry is likely to increase the pressure on future presidential candidates to decline public money. That could lead to the further unraveling of the public financing system, which requires the candidates to limit their fundraising and abide by state spending limits in return for federal matching funds for the first $250 of each contribution.

“Every candidate ... in either party is going to have to make an assumption that they will have to go outside the system,” said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick of Los Angeles, who is advising the presidential campaign of Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri.

Among the other main Democratic contenders in Iowa, Gephardt’s TV advertising expense was $1.6 million as of Jan. 9; Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina had spent about $1.3 through then.

The total ad spending by these candidates was $7.2 million as of Jan. 9 -- surpassing the amount for all the 2000 presidential contenders in both parties.

Exact comparisons to 2000 cannot be made, because CMAG tracked purchases in fewer Iowa television markets. But in the two markets it tracked in both campaigns -- Des Moines and Omaha (which reaches communities in western Iowa) -- the 2004 Democratic candidates already have spent more than 2 1/2 times as much as the 2000 Democratic and Republican candidates.

Dean, the first Democrat to reject public financing, has said repeatedly he did so to enable him to compete financially later this year with President Bush, who in 2000 and again this year opted out of the system.

But Dean’s Democratic rivals say he made the move mainly to have an advantage over them. “Opting out was all about winning the nomination,” said David Axelrod, an Edwards advisor.

Joe Trippi, Dean’s campaign manager, rejected that charge, arguing that leaving the public financing system did not give an unfair edge in the Democratic race.

The spending limit in Iowa for candidates accepting public money is $1.3 million, but Trippi said that exemptions and loopholes in the rules would allow a campaign to spend as much as $3 million on television in the state without violating the cap. For instance, half the cost of an ad can be attributed to the campaign’s national fundraising account, not its state limit.

But the other campaigns say that even by maximizing such loopholes, candidates who accept public financing could not spend nearly as much on television as Dean has -- nor match his as-yet-undisclosed expenditures on staffing, phone banks and mailings.

Steve Murphy, Gephardt’s campaign manager, said the other candidates probably could legally spend $2.5 million on all their campaigning in Iowa -- the amount Dean has already spent on television.

Dean’s spending advantage on Iowa television hasn’t been as pronounced in recent weeks, the CMAG data show.

From Jan. 3 though Jan. 9, for instance, Dean spent $222,389 in the four major Iowa markets -- Des Moines, Davenport, Cedar Rapids and Omaha. He was outspent by Kerry ($238,296) and Gephardt ($294,531).

Edwards spent $163,954, while a long-shot in the race, Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich, bought $33,829 in Iowa television last week.

Dean’s biggest advantage in Iowa is that he bought more ads earlier than his opponents, helping establish him in a state where few voters knew him at the race’s outset.

“This will be the case study for whether early advertising works in Iowa,” Tracey said.

Privately, other campaigns suggest that Dean may be low on cash despite the $40 million he raised in 2003 -- far more than any of his rivals. But Trippi said the campaign has been selective about how much it spends in Iowa because Dean is competing in several states with early primaries or caucuses, while the other candidates are focusing their advertising dollars on only a few.

Indeed, CMAG statistics showed that Dean last week spent over $900,000 on television around the country, more than any of his rivals. He outspent the other candidates in New Hampshire (with Kerry a close second), and made large purchases in Arizona and South Carolina.