Tension Shadows Rematch in Ukraine

Citizens go to the polls here today for a repeat runoff election after a tumultuous presidential campaign marked by the poisoning of one candidate, an overturning of November results due to fraud, and a fierce struggle over whether Ukraine should turn toward the West or reinvigorate ties with Russia.

The rematch between Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko was set when the Supreme Court threw out last month’s balloting on the grounds that authorities had systematically inflated Yanukovich’s official total to give him a narrow victory. The court issued its ruling in the midst of what has been dubbed the “Orange Revolution” -- 17 days of massive protests by as many as 150,000 of Yushchenko’s supporters decked out in his campaign color.

Yanukovich, who is supported by Russia, has said that Ukraine will be dominated by foreigners if Yushchenko wins. The opposition candidate, who was poisoned in an alleged assassination attempt, has favored closer ties to the West; the United States and the European Union supported his demands for a rematch.

Polls show Yushchenko holding a comfortable lead.

In a fresh legal development Saturday, the nation’s Constitutional Court ruled that a provision in an anti-fraud electoral law approved by Parliament this month was unconstitutional as it unfairly restricted citizens’ rights. The provision limited the use of home voting to the most severely disabled.

The court called for steps to allow home voting today for all people unable to reach the polls because of disabilities or poor health, if they had requested it by 8 p.m. Saturday. The decision cannot be appealed.

The ruling endorsed all other aspects of the anti-fraud law. But by broadening home voting, it raised fresh practical and legal issues, given the logistical difficulties and short time available to implement it.

“The Constitutional Court gave a chance to cast ballots to all voters who cannot move independently ... and it made it clear that the elections will be legal,” the court’s head, Mykola Selivon told reporters. “Now, no one will be able to say that the future president is illegitimate or elected unconstitutionally.”

Passions remain high, however, with Yushchenko supporters still fearful of fraud and Yanukovich’s backers convinced that victory was taken unfairly from him last month.

Both sides have warned of the risk of post-election violence in this former Soviet republic of 48 million that lies on Russia’s western border.

“I think it will be a colossal mistake on the part of the current regime if even one drop of blood is shed in the coming days,” Yushchenko said Friday at a news conference.

He called on security forces and police “to prevent any conflict or manifestation of any aggression between rallies that Orange Revolution supporters and Yanukovich supporters will hold.”

Top law enforcement officials said they were prepared to do just that.

“State security will do everything to prevent attempts by certain groups to violate law, order and people’s constitutional rights,” said Ihor Smeshko, head of the country’s security service.

Widely viewed as a pro-Western democratic reformer, Yushchenko has vowed to crack down on corruption, seek closer ties with the United States and the EU, and complete the transformation to a market economy.

Yanukovich, whose power base is in the largely Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine, has emphasized economic ties with Russia and a slower pace of change. Citing strong economic growth and an increase in exports during his two years as prime minister, Yanukovich has said that the EU and the U.S. fear competition from Ukraine and are supporting Yushchenko in order to turn the country into a colony. He has also won support from older voters since a recent increase in pension payments.

“We won’t allow our elderly to be demeaned,” Yanukovich declared at a rally in the capital, Kiev, on Friday, the last day of campaigning. “We won’t allow anyone else to build our future for our own children. Together, we will win.”

About 12,000 foreign observers have been sent to Ukraine by various organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, to help ensure an honest election.

Today’s balloting is a repeat of a runoff round held on Nov. 21.

The first round, on Oct. 31, had 24 candidates. In that balloting, Yushchenko finished a fraction of a percentage point ahead of Yanukovich after a slow vote count, during which critics alleged that the Central Election Commission, packed with his supporters, was doing everything possible to find a way to declare the prime minister the winner. A largely revamped commission is in charge of today’s election.

After both rounds, foreign observers charged that regional and local administrative and electoral officials loyal to Yanukovich and to outgoing President Leonid D. Kuchma, as well as the electoral commission, had cooperated in systematic voting fraud.

The U.S. Embassy and several other Western embassies and foundations funded exit polling in each round to help judge whether the official count was honest.

Centrist parliamentary Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn said he believed Saturday’s ruling would “fully cut off possible lawsuits after the election.”

“Fears that the election can be scuttled today no longer exist,” Lytvyn said. “We should know the name of the new president if not on Monday, then Tuesday.”

Election authorities and the Yushchenko camp also portrayed the ruling as facilitating a legitimate election. Still, the decision failed to eliminate the possibility of legal challenges or street protests by the losing side.

Recent polls by respected Ukrainian polling agencies showed Yushchenko with a lead of more than 10%.

The bitterness of the campaign intensified when Yushchenko suddenly became ill in September and accused authorities of trying to assassinate him.

This month, his doctors at a private clinic in Vienna said tests confirmed that he was the victim of dioxin poisoning, which has disfigured his face with pockmarks, cysts and discolored skin. Dioxins are a class of toxic organic compounds usually produced during waste incineration or in manufacturing processes that use chlorine.

Yushchenko reportedly was poisoned with pure tetrachlorodibenzoparadioxin, one of the most hazardous dioxins. TCDD was an element in Agent Orange, a herbicide sprayed by U.S. troops during the Vietnam War to clear dense vegetation.

Yushchenko fell sick the day after having late-night food and drinks with Smeshko, the security chief, and others. He has implied that he believes there may be a foreign connection to the poisoning, but has offered few details of what he thinks happened. He has said a full investigation should wait until after the election.

“I believe this matter will not be difficult to solve,” Yushchenko said at his news conference Friday. “Today there is plenty of proof about how this poison got into Ukraine and how it got into the food.”

He gave no details.

During the campaign, Yushchenko and his supporters repeatedly referred to revelations that Yanukovich, as a youth, served prison time for robbery and assault, and they charged that he was a front man for powerful but corrupt business groups.

“I have honor,” Yushchenko said during a televised debate Monday, a comment that was ostensibly a rebuttal to charges of foreign contributions to his campaign. “These hands have never stolen anything, I have never taken anything that wasn’t mine. I’ve never been imprisoned,” he said, clearly trying to remind voters of Yanukovich’s long-ago run-ins with the law. “I lead an honest life.”

A biography distributed on behalf of Yanukovich says that “having suffered through a very tragic and tough childhood ... the prime minister acknowledges regrettable youthful indiscretions, resulting in criminal charges that were eventually overturned by a Ukrainian court.”

A court expunged his criminal record decades ago but opponents question the reasons for that action.

Kuchma, who is stepping down after 10 years in power, said in a nationally televised address Friday that both candidates had failed to place top priority on the nation’s interests.

“There is no treacherous foe on its threshold who could threaten the existence of the Ukrainian people, but peace has left our land of plenty,” Kuchma declared. “What has happened to us then? Both sides have been tempted to claim glory only for themselves and accuse their political rivals of all sins, both involuntary and fictitious.”

Whoever wins, Kuchma said, the two rivals must “find a force in themselves to give a hand of cooperation to each other. The Ukrainian people ... need this civil act.”

Much of the fraud in earlier voting was blamed on the loose control of absentee balloting and home voting.

After the anti-fraud law was passed, Yanukovich claimed that the restrictions would disenfranchise several million elderly voters who tend to be among his supporters. He could now be in a position to argue after the election that an 8 p.m. Saturday deadline to sign up for home voting was too brief, or that the logistics of bringing ballot boxes to voters today were unacceptable and too many people were unable to vote.

On the other hand, if Yushchenko were to win by as wide a margin as most polls project, arguments over home voting could become irrelevant.

Yushchenko has said he believes he has enough support to win even if today’s ballot is marred by fraud too.

“There’s no question in my mind I won the first round and the second round, so I believe I will win the third round,” he told reporters Friday. “Whatever cheating may still occur, it will not affect the political outcome of the election.”