Clinton’s debate performance complicates Biden’s path

Many Democrats who’ve been wondering “will he or won’t he?” now may have another question in mind about Vice President Joe Biden: Why would he?

Biden’s participation, or lack thereof, in the first Democratic presidential debate was one of the hottest topics of conversation heading into Tuesday. The sense of drama amid reports of an imminent decision led television networks to camp out in front of the vice president’s Delaware home in hopes of snagging an early hint.

But a funny thing happened after the five announced candidates finally assembled on stage at the Wynn Las Vegas: Biden’s name never came up once.

As the debate started Tuesday evening, Biden was hosting a high school reunion at his official residence. He planned to watch the event later, aides said.

At an event Wednesday, Biden gave little clue about his reaction to what he saw. “I thought everyone of those folks did well. Thanks,” he said in response to a shouted question from a reporter.

But if Biden reacted the way most commentators did, he likely perceived a forum that played to Hillary Rodham Clinton’s strengths. The most talked-about moment the day after the debate was when her chief challenger, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, backed Clinton up on her assertion that the controversy which has dogged her all summer was largely a partisan affair.

The American people are “sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,” he said.

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Clinton’s performance plays an important role in the political part of Biden’s calculations. As the vice president’s inner circle worked to plot out a campaign strategy he could follow if he ultimately decided to run, the most obvious variable has been just how strong her position would be heading into the fall.

But for a fiercely competitive politician like Biden, the debate also displayed moments that could nudge him toward a race. Most obviously, none of the potential challengers to Clinton have the sort of experience or stature the vice president would bring to a campaign.

The problem for Biden, as it has been all along, aides have said, is that his decision-making process is being guided not solely – or even primarily -- by political considerations. Instead, his decision is being shaped by the question of his family’s readiness to enter the fray so soon after another family tragedy, the death in May of the vice president’s son Beau after a battle with cancer.

According to a person familiar with Biden’s thinking, the vice president understood it would be better for him to decide before the start of October, before key events like the debate could overtake him. But as the calendar turned, the vice president had still not reached a final conclusion.

Now, a window that was already starting to close may have only gotten smaller.

The next big date on the political calendar comes Oct. 22, when Clinton is scheduled to testify before the House committee investigating the 2012 attacks on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya. That appearance, once viewed with concern in the former secretary of State’s camp, now also seems more likely to enhance her standing, at least among Democrats. Clinton herself is already dismissing the panel as “basically an arm of the Republican National Committee.”

If Biden were to decide to enter the race, he would be unlikely to make an announcement before that testimony, people close to him have said. Doing so might be perceived as undermining Clinton as she prepares to confront the Republicans.

Meantime, Clinton allies are now more openly saying that if Biden is waiting to see whether events could derail Clinton, he may need to reconsider.

Biden “has been through a tremendous tragedy. And we’ve been respectful about that. And I think he deserved the space and the time to think that through about whether that it was best for him to begin this new challenge to try to mount a presidential campaign,” Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell on Wednesday.

“But I think the time has come for a decision.”

Biden’s public schedule offers few clues as to how he might proceed. Tuesday was a typical day, as he joined President Obama for meetings at the White House. Wednesday, he is slated to sit down with Obama for their weekly one-on-one lunch.

For seven years, he has served at Obama’s right hand, with a coveted role as the president’s sounding board and “last guy in the room” before tough decisions were made. He argued this May that Democrats should run proudly on the administration’s record in 2016.

“Some say this amounts to a third term for the President Obama. I call it sticking with what works,” he said at the time.

The question now is whether Biden feels he needs to be the person to carry that flag.

For more on Campaign 2016, follow @MikeMemoli