Upfront Poker: Who’s holding and who’s bluffing.

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Let the posturing begin.

This year’s upfront -- that ritualistic mating dance between the networks and advertisers when the bulk of TV commercial time is sold for the coming TV season -- is the first one to unfold in the Great Recession. Things could get ugly in a hurry.

The bears are projecting that the 4.4 broadcast networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, and Fox ... plus CW) altogether take could be off as much as 20% from last year’s $9.2 billion to $7.5 billion in upfront ad sales. The more bullish are forecasting drops of only 10%.

With that in mind, we thought we’d take a crack at predicting strategies the networks will employ in trying to psych-out Madison Avenue.

NBC will come out first and undercut its rivals by selling as much ad inventory as it can as fast as it can.

Why? Because the Peacock network is about to land in fourth place in both total viewers and the coveted adults 18-49 demographic. It is also taking a huge risk with shifting Jay Leno to prime time. Being a so-called ‘first-mover’ in the upfront is about the only play NBC has since it doesn’t have really have a great story to sell. Five hours of Leno a week is a lot cheaper to produce than five hours of scripted dramas, so NBC can take in less ad revenue and Jeff Zucker can still spin it’s a win.

Taking the opposite tack will be CBS, which will end the season first in viewers and second in adults 18-49.

As the only network to see growth in both of those key categories, CBS will talk tough about holding the line on its pricing. We’re not saying they’ll be successful, but if history is any judge don’t be surprised if CEO Leslie Moonves threatens to hold back commercial inventory to sell later in the season in what is known as the ‘scatter market’ if the markdowns are too much for him to swallow. The network has played that card before. The risk in that is that if economy fails to recover in 2010, the network could find itself with a lot of commercial time to unload in an even softer market.

Fox, which will finish this season first among adults 18-49 and is trailing just behind CBS in viewers and ABC, is harder to predict ...

Fox usually tries to introduce some sort of gimmick, like it did last year by making a big deal on cutting back the number of commercials that would clog shows such as ‘Fringe.’ Viewers liked it, naturally, but the move didn’t make economic sense, and Fox scrapped it. Fox’s hold on the 18-49 audience should give sales chief Jon Nesvig an advantage in a tough market. His challenge will be selling a network that traditionally comes out of the gate slow because of baseball disrupting the fall schedule, making it tougher for new shows to get traction.

ABC’s sales chief Mike Shaw has been talking tough lately about the value of broadcast vs. cable. He borrowed a page from NBC’s old handbook -- back in the day when it dominated Thursday night -- and boasted to TV Week last month that ABC has 15% more viewers in households earning six-figure incomes than average for television. ABC also has a reputation for being aggressive when it comes to trying to hold the line on its pricing, so don’t be surprised if it also gambles on holding back commercial time to risk later in the scatter market.

CW’s big mission for the upfront is getting advertisers to buy into its niche of targeting women 18 to 34-years old. That may mean CW will find itself competing more against cable channels Lifetime and Oxygen for ad dollars than against the other broadcast networks, which target a broader swath of the audience.

-- Joe Flint

Photo of NBC’s Jeff Zucker by Mark Lennihan/AP