Tuesday Morning: “We Are Already In a Recession,” Says SoCal Housing Bear

This article was originally on a blog post platform and may be missing photos, graphics or links. See About archive blog posts.

As bracing as a cold shower, this interview with SoCal housing bear Schahrzad Berkland is worth reading -- notably for the assertion, ‘We are already in a recession.’ (Aside: corporate economists generally can’t be relied on tell you whether a recession is coming, or has arrived).

More from Berkland, the mind behind CaliforniaHousingForecast.com:
--SoCal housing prices ‘will fall in half. We’ll go back to 1999 prices.’
--High housing prices are already driving residents out of coastal California: ‘they are leaving high-priced cities in CA in droves. Last year, per the US Census Dept, 40,000 people left San Diego, 229,000 left LA, 42,000 left San Francisco.’
--’Nobody is going to give you the straight scoop on CA’s housing bubbles. Realtors and mortgage brokers need their commissions; journalists are English majors and don’t even have access to the MLS so they rely on realtor salesspeak; economists are paid by governments or investment banks so they have to keep quiet; and local municipalities try to promote growth of their region.’ (Full disclosure: I DID major in English in college)
--Home sales data is worthless: ‘By measuring only the sold homes, now we’ve shifted our data collection to the good homes. We don’t know the value of the bad homes, because they are not selling.’
--When will housing rebound? ‘Not before 2012. CA real estate cycles are 15 years long: 5 - 7 years up, 5 - 7 years down.’

Thanks for the link: Patrick.net
Thoughts? Comments? Email story tips to lalandblog@yahoo.com
Photo Credit: LATimes