NAR forecast: Wrong again

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In what now feels like a monthly ritual, the National Association of Realtors has once again cut its forecast of existing home sales for 2007, and has again predicted a recovery is just around the corner. Inman News:
‘Existing-home sales are expected to fall 6.8 percent this year to 6.04 million, compared with 6.48 million in 2006, and to rebound to 6.38 million in 2008. The forecast calls for new single-family home sales to reach 852,000 this year, compared with 1.05 million in 2006...’

NAR economist Lawrence Yun: “Mortgage disruptions will hold back sales over the short term, but long-term fundamentals are favorable. ... “With the population growing, the demand for homes isn’t going away – it’s just being delayed.”

Because the Realtors have revised their forecast several times this year, skepticism abounds. The Motley Fool’s Seth Jayson: ‘The old saw suggests that we can tell if a lawyer is lying by watching to see if his lips are moving. Lately, I’ve been thinking we need to update that joke by subbing in the Realtors.’

Thoughts? Comments?