Kate runs the numbers herself
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One of the great things about the Internet is that it makes information available to everyone -- if you care enough, you can become an expert. So Kate in the Valley isn’t just a house-hunter who blogs; she’s an expert on the areas where she wants to live. The chart above is Kate’s creation -- it shows home sales in all the neighborhoods she’s interested in, most of them peaking in August 2005. Kate’s latest:
It seems like everybody is talking about August sales volumes this week, yet I couldn’t find anything about the neighborhoods I search. It’s frustrating that Los Angeles is treated as a single homogeneous real-estate entity, which it clearly is not. So I did what any frustrated house hunter would do: ran the numbers myself. I ran searches by zip code at MelissaData.com, where they provide a list by month of the number of homes sold and the average price. Their information comes from the local county recorder’s office. I ran seven ZIP Codes representing the southern San Fernando Valley: 91604 (Studio City), 91423 (Sherman Oaks East); 91403 (Sherman Oaks West); 91436 (Encino West); 91306 (Encino East); 91356 (Tarzana); and 91364 (Woodland Hills).
What did I find? That about half of these ZIP Codes had peak August sales volumes in 2005 and the remaining ZIP Codes peaked in 2004 (not 2003 like the rest of Southern California). Which makes me think that if I want a house in these neighborhoods (and I do) it will take a little longer here than it might elsewhere in SoCal.
The biggest sales volume decline was in Tarzana, selling a whopping 98 homes in August 2005 and a mere 24 in August 2007 (down 75.5%). Encino West was not far behind, selling 92 homes in August 2005 and 30 in August 2007 ( down 67.39%). Studio City fared the best of the lot, selling 66 homes in Aug 2005 and 41 in August 2007 (down 38.88%).
I also looked at Melissa Data’s reported changes in August sale prices over the last six years. Almost all ZIP Codes peaked in August 2006. Surprisingly, the southwestern San Fernando Valley is showing a year-over-year sale price increase; Woodland Hills, Tarzana, and West Encino are all up from last August. The biggest year-over-year sale price decline was in Sherman Oaks West with a 13.22% price cut since August 2006, followed by Studio City with a 12.60% decrease for the same period. It will certainly be interesting to see what volumes are like during the holidays this year.
Graphic by Kate
Comments? Thoughts? Insights?