I see it! The bottom, I see it!

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Good morning. A couple of brave -- or misguided, or insightful -- guys think they can see the bottom of the housing market:

--White House Council Of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear tells CNBC, ‘Housing has been unfortunately a negative and that should stop probably in the next six months.’

--California’s beleaguered new-home market should begin a modest recovery this year, according to a forecast by the California Building Industry Association (CBIA). “By mid-2008 the housing industry will show signs of growth,” CBIA chief economist Alan Nevin predicts. “Continued population growth, a reduction of existing inventory and a return to normalcy in the credit markets are a recipe for a more positive 2008. As a result, we are projecting a slight increase in new home sales over last year.”

Sometimes I throw in my predictions and here is one, albeit a hedged prediction with an off-topic political component: Price declines will continue well beyond the middle of 2008. And whether the home-building industry bottoms in the summer or not, voters won’t notice -- they will go to the polls in November believing the housing slump is bad and not getting better -- somewhat like the 1992 presidential election, when voters went to the polls blaming Bush the elder for the recession (‘It’s the economy, stupid’), even though history would later show the recession had actually ended in March of 1991.

Your thoughts? Comments? Insights? E-mail story tips to peter.viles@latimes.com.
Hat tip: Housing Chronicles