Wall Street Roundup: 25% chance of doom. Lloyd’s losses.

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Gold: Trading now at $1,767 per ounce, down 1.0% from Wednesday. Dow Jones industrial average: Trading now at 10971.21, up 2.3% from Wednesday.

Another bounce. Promising unemployment data have sent stocks up again after Wednesday’s drubbing.

A 25% chance of doom. While many are speaking as if a new recession is a foregone conclusion, a new poll of economists suggests there is only a 1 in 4 chance of a new recession. That is still up from 1 in 5 two weeks ago.


Bank troubles. The six largest banks are now all trading on the stock market for less than their book value, or the value of their constituent parts and holdings.

Hedge fund winners. While hedge fund giant John Paulson is losing big in the current downturn, a few players, such as Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard, have found a way to profit.

Lloyd’s losses. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein lost $52 million in the last month due to the falling price of his bank’s stock; he is one of many bank CEOs to see their portfolios drop.

Citadel succumbs. Chicago hedge fund Citadel has been trying to build up a new investment bank; that effort now appears to be off, Bloomberg reports.

--Nathaniel Popper