Poll shows Molly Munger chipping away at Jerry Brown’s support


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Ever since the beginning of the campaign, Gov. Jerry Brown and his allies have worried that Molly Munger’s rival ballot measure would siphon away support for his tax plan. It appears they were right to be concerned, according to a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.

Support for Brown’s tax measure, Proposition 30, sank nine points to 46% in the last month amid a barrage of criticism from Munger, who is pushing Proposition 38.


Poll data show that fewer of Munger’s supporters are also willing to vote for Brown’s measure, falling 10 points to 75%. In a close election, that kind of drop can be decisive, said David Kanevsky of American Viewpoint, a Republican firm that worked on the poll.

“The legacy of Proposition 38 will be what happens to Proposition 30,’ he said. ‘If Proposition 30 loses by a very close margin, you could make a case that Proposition 38 helped kill it.”

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Democratic company, also worked on the poll, which surveyed 1,504 registered voters by telephone from Oct. 15 to Oct. 21. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.

Brown’s plan, Proposition 30, would increase the sales tax by a quarter-cent for four years and raise income taxes on the wealthy by one to three percentage points for seven years. The governor says it’s the only way to avoid billions of dollars in cuts to public schools this year.

Proposition 38, which Munger has bankrolled with tens of millions of dollars, would increase income taxes on most Californians on an ascending scale and spend the money on schools, early childhood education and debt payments.

Pollster Stan Greenberg said Brown can still pull out a victory on election day, Nov. 6.


“This is likely to turn back,’ he said.

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-- Chris Megerian in Sacramento