The Decline of Manny Ramirez
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Since July 31 Manny Ramirez has been brilliant -- and he hasn’t cost the Dodgers a dollar in salary.
But Ramirez, the free-agent-to-be, turns 37 in May and he wants a five-year mega-deal to stay with them. What should the Dodgers do?
I saved the Dodgers some time and figured out what Manny’s average annual offensive production will be starting next year, if he gets his wish and plays into his 40s. Expect these numbers:
Games At Bats Runs Hits Home runs RBI BB Batting average
110 378 60 110 23 81 61 .290
Compared with these annual numbers since Manny cracked the Indians’ lineup at age 22:
140 504 96 159 35 115 81 .315
Hold it, you’re asking, where’d you get that Ouija board?
It’s a mix of sabermetrics, basic math and common sense. I picked 10 Hall of Fame sluggers from the modern era who played into their 40s. Granted, these oldsters preceded the steroid era, but Manny hasn’t been linked to any performance-enhancing stuff, so it seemed a fair comparison. Then I calculated the decline in offensive production by these Hall of Famers after they turned 37, and applied that same rate of decline to Manny’s career averages so far.
Bottom line: the older the slugger, the smaller his power numbers.
If you doubt it, study this Hall of Fame lineup. It shows each player’s average offensive production per season after his 37th birthday:
Hank Aaron 120 402 61 110 27 76 63 .274
Ernie Banks 104 356 40 88 18 60 24 .247
Reggie Jackson 108 427 56 97 20 63 63 .227
Willie Mays 116 375 64 103 16 55 66 .274
Willie McCovey 103 322 32 79 14 55 39 .246
Eddie Murray 116 448 47 121 18 71 37 .272
Frank Robinson 94 299 48 76 16 50 55 .253
Willie Stargell 82 222 31 62 15 46 28 .279
Dave Winfield 101 369 51 102 15 56 40 .276
Carl Yastrzemski 127 449 59 129 16 72 60 .274
You still want to spend $100 million on Manny?
-- Barry Stavro
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