Opinion: More than corn growing there

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While polls indicate much of the rest of the country thinks it’s too early for 2008 presidential politics, new results from Iowa today show a deep citizen involvement -- and a real horse race among top Democrats.

A new ABC News/Washington Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers finds a virtual tie among John Edwards, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton with 27%, 26% and 26%, respectively. Bill Richardson trails at 11%, the only other Democrat in double digits. An ABC debate among Democrats in Iowa on Aug. 19 may help solidify a leader.

A similar ABC poll of Iowa Republican candidates will be released Sunday in conjunction with a GOP debate to be broadcast by ABC at 8 a.m. Pacific time.

The poll shows that with five months left to the January caucus, 40% of Iowa Democrats are following the race very closely, twice the national rate, and 89% are satisfied with the field of choices, well ahead of how GOP voters feel about their candidates.

Although Edwards (who in 2004 finished second to John Kerry) trails badly in third place in national polls, he’s perceived in Iowa to have worked hard campaigning, with some 69 events this year to Obama’s 60 events and Clinton’s 41.

Poll results indicate Edwards’ strong suits are empathy and local focus, and he ties with Obama on likability. For Clinton it’s the familiar electability, strength and experience, but not likability. Obama’s appeal comes from those who seek a new direction in politics, particularly younger voters. Among those interested in a new direction, Obama gets 37%, Edwards 31% and Clinton only 15%.

Clinton cleans up on the experience factor, drawing 50% there, to Edwards’ 15% and Obama’s measly 7%. But even her supporters don’t find her likable. And she trails both of them in trustworthiness and likability. As usual, the ability to turn out supporters on a cold January evening will be key; in the 2004 Democratic caucuses, barely 120,000 participated to give Kerry his big boost. Turnout is especially hard to generate among younger voters, Obama’s core.

-- Andrew Malcolm