Opinion: The lay of the (Republican) land

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The narrative of the Republican nomination battle has been a little disjointed. Would the social conservatives ever embrace Rudy Giuliani? Will John McCain board that Straight Talk Express one more time? Anyone want seconds on the potatoes and gravy? ... Oh, sorry, getting ahead of ourselves.

Actually, in a lot of ways the Republican campaign, even though it hasn’t generated the kind of base excitement as the Democratic campaign, could in the end prove to be more interesting. For the Democrats, the choice seems to be coming down to old versus new with a few folks hopping up and down yelling, ‘Hey, we’re running too!’

For the Republicans, depending on how the nomination plays out, we could see a significant shift in control within the party. The power that the social conservatives have wielded with such success over the last few election cycles could have run its course, and how the party votes will be the tea leaves for analysts to pore over.

The upshot: Giuliani would not likely have had much success running against George Bush in 2000. That he may be the candidate to beat now speaks volumes about the shift within the party -- and the changed political environment, post 9/11. It also underscores the failure, so far, of a socially conservative party to demonstrate wide appeal. Fred Thompson seemed to have that potential, but his strength remains rooted in the region he comes from -- the South.

Giuliani remains the national poll leader. Mitt Romney holds the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire, has surged to a tie in South Carolina and, while trailing in Nevada, can’t be counted out there, given the relatively high number of Mormons in the state. McCain hopes that, as in 2000, New Hampshire voters will flock to his banner. Mike Huckabee has been moving up in the polls, particularly in Iowa, and he seems to be gaining momentum within the Christian Right. Ron Paul has galvanized libertarians and some economic conservatives; the question is whether he can attract sufficient support to affect the nomination.

So there’s a lot of uncertainty there, which is what ultimately could make the GOP nomination battle the more interesting of the two. As you head to the dessert table for more pie, keep this in mind: Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, giving the pre-Feb. 5 media narrative a ‘Giuliani stumbles’ track going into Super Duper Tuesday. But with Giuliani enjoying strong backing in delegate-heavy states such as California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey, he would seem in good position to bounce back.

Unless, of course, a new theme develops -- that the rank-and-file Republicans, many of whom view another Clinton administration as a sign of the apocalypse, decide someone else would be in better position to beat her.

Which, of course, is why the candidates keep slogging away. It also spotlights one of the delicious ironies of American political life: Most voters are cynical and doubt anyone can make much of a difference while most politicians are optimists and believe they can make a difference.

It’s a wonder we speak the same language.

-- Scott Martelle