Opinion: N.H. poll shocker: Perry falls, Romney surges as does Jon Huntsman
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Well, here are a couple of -- no, make that several -- new wrinkles in the Republican presidential contest in New Hampshire:
With the next televised debate tonight in Florida on Fox News, a new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican voters shows Mitt Romney surging to a commanding 27-point lead over his closest GOP rival, who is not Rick Perry.
The Texas governor, whose mid-August entry saw him rush to the top of numerous national Republican polls, was pushed way down in the new Suffolk University Poll to fourth place deep into the single digits, barely ahead of the not-even-running Sarah Palin.
But here’s a surprising, potentially significant development for the New Hampshire contest. Jon Huntsman, who’s been swimming around the bottom of the field like a foraging flounder barely registering in most polls, has himself surged.
He’s moved all the way up to 10% and third place -- ahead of Perry.
According to the new Suffolk University/7News poll of 400, the field there now stacks up this way:
Romney at 41%, up five points since June; Ron Paul at 14% and Huntsman at 10%, both up six points since June; Perry 8%; Palin 6%; Michele Bachmann 5%; Newt Gingrich at 4%; and Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer both at 1%.
Romney’s lead is impressive, though not surprising. He lives in New Hampshire part time, was all over the state’s media as governor and a Senate candidate next door in Massachusetts and has made major investments there of time, staff and money.
Huntsman’s soft-spoken, laid-back campaign style, which flops during televised debates, suits New Hampshire sidewalks perfectly.
He seems to have all the time in the world to talk with this one fellow here and then his wife, who comes along. That goes over well in the state where personal conversations are not only expected but demanded of visiting primary pols.
It was about this time in 1999 that John McCain’s living-room-to-living-room efforts began to register ominously on the radar of his opponents. And then on a chilly January election day there, the first exit polls were so disturbing that George W. Bush’s strategist Karl Rove did not finish his breakfast.
McCain ended up taking New Hampshire that night from another Texan in cowboy boots by a humbling 15 points.
Romney scored an impressive 69% favorable in the Suffolk survey, compared to 56% unfavorable for Palin. He looks poised and presidential in these debates. But if Huntsman defeated Romney there 3 1/2 months from now or even came close, that could prove crippling for Romney’s second bid for his party’s nomination.
If Perry can do well in South Carolina and maybe snatch Iowa from Bachmann, that sets up a real potential showdown with Romney in Florida, where tonight’s 6 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time debate is co-sponsored by Google and the state party.
Nine Republicans will be on the Orlando stage, as ex-New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson qualified for a podium with a 1% standing in a set of polls.
Oh, and there’s a straw poll at tonight’s gathering too. Can you say Ron Paul?
-- Andrew Malcolm