Bangladesh Choice Called ‘Peace or Anarchy’

DHAKA, Bangladesh — A government-owned newspaper declared that today’s referendum here is a choice of “peace or anarchy.”

The martial-law government of Lt. Gen. Hussain Mohammed Ershad, president of Bangladesh since taking over in a bloodless military coup in 1982, contends that a vote for Ershad is a vote for peace.

In this poor and overpopulated country on the deltas of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers, Bangladesh’s nearly 50 million voters will be given an opportunity to vote for or against Ershad, 54, and what Western diplomats here call his “moderate martial-law government.” Ershad himself once described it as “martial law with a difference.”

Four Postponements

Ershad, the second military man to rule this country since it won independence from Pakistan in 1971, has promised to hold national elections and restore Bangladesh to a constitutional government after the referendum. Four times in the past two years, however, most recently three weeks ago, Ershad has postponed scheduled parliamentary elections after the numerous, fragmented opposition parties refused to participate.

In light of his renewed promise of a restored constitution and parliamentary elections, it is considered extremely unlikely that Ershad could lose today. A nearly identical referendum in 1977 for the martial-law ruler, Maj. Gen. Ziaur Rahman, who was assassinated in 1981, resulted in a reported 98% tally in his favor. Skeptics argue that, given political conditions here, there is little chance for an accurate vote count anyway.

General Strike Urged

The two main coalitions of opposition parties have urged a general strike on referendum day instead of participation in the voting. After announcing plans to hold the referendum, Ershad ordered the two opposition leaders placed under house arrest. He also ordered all five universities closed and a curfew in the cities.

Marches, demonstrations and pamphleteering against the referendum were banned. An estimated 500 anti-government political activists have been placed under “preventive detention.”

Observers here predict the vote will go off relatively peacefully. “There may be a few people killed but not many,” said independent politician and journalist Enayetullah Khan.

Similar to Pakistan’s

Today’s referendum is similar to one held in December by Pakistan’s President Zia ul-Haq, although less religious in tone. Zia linked the Pakistani election to his national religious policies in such a way that it appeared to be also a vote for Islam, the majority religion in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Ershad’s referendum, secular in its wording, simply asks voters to declare whether or not they “have confidence in the policies and programs enunciated and adopted by President Lt. Gen. Hussain Mohammed Ershad and also whether or not (they) agree to his continuance in office as president until the holding of elections under the suspended constitution.”

In a massive television and poster campaign, however, Ershad has declared the referendum a vote consistent with “Islamic principles.”

‘Guided Democracy’

As in Pakistan earlier, the style of the vote here follows the lines of the so-called “guided democracy” that is becoming increasingly popular in Third World countries as a transitional stage between martial law and functioning democracy.

Western diplomats, particularly those from the United States, have recently taken the position that these transitional, guided democracies are taking realistic steps toward restoring democracy.

“Ershad has said he views the referendum as a step in the direction of national elections,” said one diplomatic source here. “We like the sound of those words.”

Repulsed by the disorganized state of opposition parties here, even some of the country’s intellectuals see positive sides to the Ershad rule. “We are opposed to martial law but we want continuity,” said Enayetullah Khan, editor of the left-leaning Holiday magazine here and a member of an influential political family that includes the Bangladesh ambassador to the United States.

In this regard, Ershad has successfully portrayed the opposition as a corrupt and disruptive force. “They have not yet shown their willingness to establish democracy in a peaceful and disciplined manner,” Ershad said in his March 1 speech canceling elections scheduled for next month and announcing today’s referendum.

“Rather, their activities help create an atmosphere of uncertainty and indiscipline in national life, . . . frequent strikes, work stoppages, killings, hijackings, use of arms on campus, setting fire to student residence halls, violence, oppression of the peace-loving people by anti-social elements,” he said.

Although Ershad appears to have won some popular support for his policies here, some contend the price in human rights has been too great. “People don’t realize that many of the top politicians are being hunted,” said Hasna Ahmed, wife of a prominent Dhaka attorney and former deputy prime minister. “Every night the police come to our house asking for my husband. They say they want to arrest him. They have made it very difficult for us.”