Foes’ Gains Showed Koreans’ Dissatisfaction : Chun Seen Facing New Pressures

The recent National Assembly election has created new political pressures on President Chun Doo Hwan, who has learned that authoritarian suppression during his first five years in power produced no widespread support for him.

“It’s a situation very different from that of just a few months ago,” a foreign analyst commented. “Very serious risks are involved. The opposition’s resounding victory . . . exposed a breadth and depth of dissatisfaction that gave us all pause.”

Even Chun’s top lieutenants are talking about facing up to a new challenge.

Lee Jong Chan, Assembly floor leader of the ruling Democratic Justice Party, said the New Korea Democratic Party’s showing in urban voting “reflects the fact that people want political change . . . to fulfill their appetite for democratization of this country.”

Led in Seoul Vote

In Seoul, the New Korea Democratic Party won 16% more of the popular vote than the ruling party. The new opposition party was organized only 25 days before the Feb. 12 election and is made up largely of politicians who were barred from political activity until last November.

Still, Lee said in an interview, the nation’s voters last month gave the ruling party virtually the same percentage of the overall popular vote as they did four years ago. This, he said, “showed that they want continued political stability.”

Since the election, Chun has overhauled his Cabinet and the ruling party’s executive structure, bringing into the public eye moderate leaders with a reputation for flexibility. Yet battle lines have been drawn between hard-liners in Chun’s camp and confrontational elements in the opposition.

Lee Min Woo, president of the New Korea Democratic Party, threw down the gauntlet in an interview with the Japanese daily Sankei Shimbun, demanding that Chun “announce a blueprint for democratic reforms” by late summer of next year “and then quit.”

Lee Min Woo said that if the president fails to resign next year, he will be beset by “misfortune” or “a difficult situation.”

Demand Irritated Chun

Chun is reported to have been outraged.

The interview triggered an explosion in the ruling party, whose spokesmen condemned Lee Min Woo for attempting “to disrupt constitutional order and hinder a peaceful transfer of power in 1988.” Chun has promised to resign then, under a constitutional requirement that he step down after a seven-year term.

Ruling party officials finally decided to postpone a showdown on Lee Min Woo’s comments until the National Assembly reopens in mid-April.

Foreign analysts were nearly as alarmed by the interview as were Chun and his supporters. One called it a “worrisome indicator” of future trouble, a sign that the opposition may choose to confront Chun rather than seek reform through dialogue.

Hard-liners and moderates in both government and opposition are now lined up against each other, for the first time since Chun seized power in a military coup in May, 1980, and the outcome is unpredictable.

Chun to Visit U.S.

A showdown--in the form of charges in the press, in the National Assembly and in student demonstrations--could come as early as next month, on the eve of Chun’s scheduled visit to the United States. April 19, the anniversary of of the fall of the Syngman Rhee government in a student uprising in 1960, is regarded as an especially sensitive date.

After the election, Chun appointed a new team of moderate officials who quickly promised that there will be more dialogue and more democracy.

Named prime minister was Lho Shin Yong, who as director of the Agency for National Security Planning--the old Korean CIA--saw that plainclothes policemen were withdrawn last year from university campuses. Foreign political analysts consider him the most forceful prime minister since 1975.

Lho promised to “expand liberalization in every sector of society.”

The new head of the ruling Democratic Justice Party, replacing Kwon Ik Hyun, a reputed hard-liner, is Roh Tae Woo, former head of the Seoul Olympic Organizing Committee and the Korea Amateur Sports Assn. Roh and Chun were classmates at the Military Academy, and Roh was a key Chun supporter in the 1980 coup. Roh nonetheless is viewed as a moderate.

2 Liberal Moves

Lee Jong Chan, the ruling party floor leader, said Loh and Roh will push for reforms. Two liberal moves were made after the election:

--On March 6, Chun freed the last 14 of 567 political figures banned from political activity since 1980.

--The next day, Roh called for the release of 20 students on trial in Seoul on charges of breaking into the ruling party’s headquarters last Nov. 14. The court is expected to comply.

The removal of restrictions on the 14 political figures came much earlier than expected. Among those affected was Kim Dae Jung, the opposition’s candidate in the last free presidential election here, in 1971. Kim also was freed from house arrest, which had been imposed Feb. 8 when he returned to South Korea after two years of self-imposed exile in the United States.

Because of a suspended 20-year jail sentence for sedition, Kim is still prevented from seeking public office or joining a political party. But officials have hinted that Chun is prepared to remove that restriction if Kim behaves moderately.

Lee Jong Chan spelled out what appears to be Chun’s formula for future liberalization. The first step, he said, will be to open the ruling party “so that the people can criticize or encourage us.”

Analysts Skeptical

“Up to now, our policy-making, although formed through a democratic process, has not been open. That’s why we suffered the misunderstanding that our party was very rigid.”

Then, Lee Jong Chan said, using the National Assembly as a catalyst, there will be an effort to bring together divergent opinion to achieve reforms while ensuring stability.

Foreign analysts expressed skepticism that this strategy will succeed. They noted that Chun has named rigid hard-liners to key posts out of the public view. One foreign analyst said that a basic problem is that while Chun’s camp acknowledges the need for more liberalization, Chun and his associates have no articulate goal for democracy.