Statistics Fly as Vote Nears on Gun Control

Poring over the FBI’s newly released annual crime report, National Rifle Assn. officials recently came upon a little-noticed statistic: Murders involving firearms dropped 9% between 1974 and 1984--a decade, the NRA notes, in which “more than 20 million handguns and 35 million long guns were added to the collections of firearms owned by Americans.”

To Paul Blackman, research coordinator for the NRA Institute for Legislative Action, the decline in gun-related homicides--at a time when the number of firearms was rising--offers clear evidence that “handguns have absolutely nothing to do with” the frequency of murder.

New Round in Debate

Blackman’s interpretation of the FBI statistics, categorically rejected by NRA critics, reflects the approaching climax of a new battle over gun control--and a new round in the running national debate over the relationship between guns and crime.

Already approved by the Senate and nearing a vote in the House is legislation that could make it easier to purchase handguns. And anti-gun groups, while not conceding the merits of the NRA’s arguments, acknowledge that the gun lobby has gained the upper hand in the battle for public opinion.

Noting that the gun industry is suffering a sales slump, Michael Beard, president of the National Coalition to Ban Handguns, called the pending legislation “a relief bill for manufacturers.”

Josh Sugarmann, communications director of the National Coalition to Ban Handguns, pointed out that the NRA’s use of statistics masks an important fact: When handgun murders took their biggest plunge in a decade last year, the number of guns that were manufactured and imported to this country also fell sharply. “The decline (in murders) has paralleled the massive drop we’ve seen in handgun sales,” he said.

There is no way to know for sure how many handguns are now in American homes--estimates range from 35 million to 60 million, not counting an estimated 100 million rifles and shotguns. The increasingly widespread ownership of firearms has done nothing to still the dispute over gun control.

The downward trend of gun-related crimes illustrates the “irrelevancy of gun laws,” argued Blackman, who added: “Persons being able to carry concealed weapons seems to discourage street robbery.”

On the other hand, Barbara Lautman, communications director of Handgun Control Inc., argued that, “if having a whole lot of handguns around were a deterrent to crime, we would already have the safest country in the world.” Although handgun murders are falling, gun control advocates say, people continue to kill each other--and themselves--with handguns that are all too available.

Both sides agree that a variety of other factors--particularly the reduction in the number of males in the peak crime-committing years of 15 to 24--are contributing to the decline in the murder rate.

Age of Murder Suspects

Last year, for example, 34% of all those arrested for murder were aged 18 to 24. The two years--1979 and 1980--during which the U.S. population contained the most males in this age group were also the two years with the greatest numbers of handgun murders.

“The baby boom generation is growing out of its murder phase,” said the gun-control lobby’s Sugarmann. “So we’ve got a breathing space until the next baby boomlet starts killing.”

Also, anti-gun activists say, better law enforcement, more neighborhood crime-watch programs and a record-setting prison population have done a great deal to prevent murders. And they contend that the number would drop even further if tougher handgun laws were enacted.

Whether that will happen remains in question.

Vote to Weaken Laws

Before recessing, the Republican-controlled Senate voted 79 to 15 for a bill that would weaken, not strengthen, the nation’s gun control laws, which were enacted in 1968 in reaction to the assassinations of the civil rights leader, Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy (D-N.Y.). The bill would loosen restrictions on buying, selling and transporting firearms, including interstate transactions.

Favored by the NRA, it also would require federal officials to notify gun dealers in advance of routine compliance inspections.

Rep. Peter W. Rodino Jr. (D-N.J.), chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, has served notice that the Senate version of the bill will be “dead on arrival” in the Democratic-controlled House, where liberals are expected to press for a ban on interstate sales and a 15-day waiting period before purchases can be picked up, among other restrictions.

‘Revolt Is Ripe’

John Snyder, chief lobbyist for the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, accuses Rodino of setting himself up as “an anti-gun dictator,” a move he claims “has created a situation in which revolt is ripe” among House members. But he refuses to claim victory, saying: “As Yogi Berra says, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future.’ ”

The NRA, buoyed by the Senate victory, is on the offensive, armed with an aggressive pro-gun advertising campaign in which it spent $2.2 million last year alone. One ad shows a Columbus, Ohio, policewoman in a plaid jacket, smiling and holding a revolver. “Millions of women live alone and are concerned with their safety,” she says. “Many want to learn how to select and properly use a handgun strictly for self-protection.”

Critics say the NRA is trying to pump up lagging gun sales by appealing to a relatively untapped market of women through ads that exploit the “fear factor.” With the white male market already “saturated,” said Beard of the anti-handgun coalition, single white women have become “the new battleground” for sales.

‘We’re Not Selling’

John Aquilino, the NRA’s director of public education, said of this and other ads in the campaign: “We’re not selling or promoting anything. We’re introducing ourselves to the public.”

Gun manufacturers concede that their industry is in trouble but say neither the ad campaign nor the Senate bill represents a “bail-out.” They assert that the Senate-passed legislation reflects the will of the people and cite California voters’ resounding rejection in 1982 of tough gun-control legislation as an example of public opinion.

“The anti-firearms movement is not a popular movement,” said Andy Molchan, president of the National Assn. of Federally Licensed Firearms Dealers in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “It’s a movement of a frightened and elite group.”

Meanwhile, anti-gun activists are waging a relatively modest campaign of their own. “We’re trying to explain to dear ol’ mom that if she has a handgun in her drawer, she’s 118 times more likely to shoot someone in the family than a criminal,” said the anti-handgun coalition’s Beard.

Subway Shootings

In part, the renewed debate over gun control has been stimulated by the December, 1984, New York subway incident in which Bernhard Goetz shot four young men who he said were trying to get money from him.

The U.S. Conference of Mayors surveyed 25 cities, including Fresno and Santa Ana, to assess the effect of the incident on people’s fear of crime. It found a “growing number of people who feel the necessity for some form of self-protection.”

Laura Waxman, a spokeswoman for the mayors’ conference, said that many people acknowledged owning unregistered firearms. “People know it’s illegal,” she said, “but they’d rather face a judge than face an intruder unarmed.”

Such attitudes frustrate anti-handgun advocates. Hubert Williams, president of the Police Foundation, a Washington-based research organization, noted the “shattered lives” of people involved in handgun incidents and said: “All you have to do is spend a Friday night with any police officer in any city and you will see the need for stricter controls.”