Risk of Major Epidemics ‘Improbable,’ Health Experts Say; Lesser Illnesses Likely

Mexican and international health experts said Tuesday that the risk of major epidemics arising from last week’s earthquakes is “improbable.”

They said there is a great risk of increased gastrointestinal illnesses because of bad water, spoiled food and lack of sanitation facilities after the two quakes.

During a press conference, Pan American Health Organization officials accused government and private medical centers of doling out vaccinations for typhoid and tetanus unnecessarily in order to calm widespread fears of disease.

“Public pressure has forced them to adopt an erroneous policy,” said Jose Luis Zeballos, a doctor with the organization’s Washington, D.C., office on disaster-relief coordination. “We should not be using valuable resources in a massive campaign of vaccinations when they are not needed.”

Vaccinations Recommended

Many hospitals and health clinics around the capital have recommended that residents take the vaccinations or have offered the shots to anyone who sought them.

Last weekend, health workers were giving the shots to throngs of people at the Social Security baseball stadium as they arrived to search for missing relatives among bodies in the temporary morgue there.

Doctors said typhoid vaccines are only about 70% effective and require at least two shots given several weeks apart. They termed it unlikely that anyone would contract tetanus or typhoid, even if they came into direct contact with decomposing bodies.

Some residents have fled the capital, fearing outbreaks of disease.

Rumors of Epidemics

Noting a recent five-inch headline in a local newspaper that read “Peste “ (pestilence), Zeballos said, “Inevitably, after an earthquake there are rumors of an outbreak of epidemics. It is natural anxiety. . . . But in a situation like this of tension, collective psychosis and collective pain, you are playing with the mental health of the public.”

The municipality has reported at least 4,160 confirmed deaths in the earthquake that registered 7.8 on the Richter scale and the major aftershock 36 hours later that registered 7.3. Police have estimated that at least 1,000 more people may still be buried in the hundreds of collapsed buildings.

Authorities have been anxious to clear away the debris to reduce risk of infection.

Pablo Isaza, a Mexico City representative of the Pan American Health Organization, said there were no epidemics after the 1976 earthquake in Guatemala that left more than 22,000 dead, nor in Nicaragua after the 1972 earthquake that killed 5,000.

‘It Is a Falsehood’

“It is a falsehood that after a catastrophe there will necessarily be an epidemic. It is not true that just because there are decomposing bodies per se, it will produce an epidemic,” Isaza said.

Nurses and doctors interviewed at two hospitals in the capital confirmed that they have not seen any cases of typhoid or tetanus resulting from the quakes. Doctors said that even in the case of such an outbreak, it would not be seen for two to four more weeks while the diseases were incubating.

Isaza noted that death totals are difficult to obtain and that officials may not know the total for the quakes for many days. After the Guatemala quake, he said, officials initially spoke of 2,000 dead; two weeks later, the toll had risen to 22,000.

Health officials said they are most concerned about the public drinking bad water or eating spoiled food. Electricity still is out in about 10% to 20% of the city, and potable water is unavailable to about one-third of the residents.

Water-Boiling Urged

Officials are warning citizens to boil all water before drinking it and to report sales of any spoiled food. Zeballos said about 25% of the drinking-water system has “deteriorated” due to the quakes.

Officials said water service will not be completely restored for at least two weeks.

Health workers also expressed concern about the hundreds of rescue workers and homeless using the streets as a toilet. One doctor at the Military Hospital noted, “For a company of 100 soldiers, you need a new latrine every three days.”

Mexico City suffered a typhoid epidemic in 1970. Gastrointestinal problems already are common here.

A doctor at the Military Hospital said that health workers there are recording all cases of diarrhea and respiratory problems but that no increase has yet been noted. He said he has seen no cases of typhoid or tetanus recently.

‘Neurosis and Hysteria’

“The only epidemic here is of neurosis and hysteria,” said the doctor, who asked not to be identified.

Since the quake, he said, several people have come in with imagined illnesses. Once they were found to be physically healthy, they were referred to psychiatrists for treatment for trauma.

The doctor said the hospital also has received emergency cases of inexperienced volunteers who hurt themselves excavating fallen buildings and two cases of people who drank formaldehyde, thinking it was water.

Secretary of Health Guillermo Soberon said it is too early to assess the quakes’ long-term damage to the provision of medical services. He said 3,500 of 18,000 hospital beds were lost in the capital. However, hospitals--where most health workers have been working double shifts--are far from full.

According to doctors, many private clinics, offices and medical laboratories also were destroyed by the quakes.