Portugal Election Victor Faces Uncertain Future

For the young, well-dressed Social Democrats who clogged the lobby of a Lisbon hotel, chanting “Ca-va-co! Ca-va-co!” in the early hours of Monday, nothing seemed more sure than the power of their party’s victory in the Portuguese parliamentary elections.

Nor did any Portuguese politician seem more confident than their 46-year-old leader, Anibal Cavaco Silva, the probable next prime minister, as he flashed V-for-victory signs with his hands and marched in triumph from the party’s election night headquarters.

Yet, in the view of most analysts here, the victory of the Social Democrats--a party of the center-right in the Portuguese political spectrum--will probably offer Cavaco Silva little more than brief and uncertain power while leaving Portuguese politics in confusion.

The Social Democrats did not win Sunday’s election as much as the Socialist Party lost it, and the Socialists lost it because of a strange new party that seems to stand for little but faith in Antonio Ramalho Eanes, 50, the outgoing president who cannot succeed himself.

The new Eanes party--which calls itself the Democratic Renewal Party--cut into the Socialist vote so badly that the Socialist Party’s share of the electorate dropped from 36% two years ago to 21% Sunday. It is weaker than at any time since the 1974 revolution that overthrew the Portuguese dictatorship.

A Cloud of Imponderables

Three imponderables cloud the future of politics here: the destiny of Eanes’ new party, the presidential elections scheduled for January and the difficulty the Social Democrats are expected to have running the government with only a third of the members of the 250-seat Parliament, formally called the Assembly of the Republic.

With returns practically complete, the government provided these figures: Social Democrats, 29.8% of the vote and 85 assembly seats; Socialists, 20.8% and 55 seats; Eanes’ party, 18% and 45 seats; Communists, 15.6% and 37 seats; Christian Democrats, 9.7% and 20 seats. Eight seats were still to be decided by the complicated proportional representation system.

Although the new Eanes party obviously attracted many former Socialist voters, it is difficult to classify ideologically. Top party officials include leftists, former military officers, farmers and villagers.

The party offered them hope at a time when many Portuguese were chafing under the austerity program of Socialist Prime Minister Mario Soares. And, with Eanes himself directly in charge, it may have the potential to become a dominant political force here.

The election was a staggering blow to the presidential candidacy of the 60-year-old Soares, who had hoped to end his career in the prestigious and often-influential post of president. But the voters clearly repudiated him, and he begins the presidential campaign knowing that he has the support of only about one out of every five voters.

Heeding the message the voters sent Sunday, Soares resigned as caretaker prime minister Monday, turning the post over to Social Democrat Rui Machete while Cavaco Silva tries to put a new government together. The task may not be easy. None of the other parties seems willing to join his Social Democrats in a coalition and he may be able to govern as prime minister only if the other parties abstain from voting on his program.