GOP Strategists Hoping for Votes From Bird Foes

Gov. George Deukmejian helped raise $150,000 Wednesday night for the 1986 election campaigns of Assembly Republicans, whose strategists are hoping for a significant boost at the ballot box from voter opposition to California Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird.

“Bird could become the overriding issue by which voters judge all other candidates,” said Assembly Republican Floor Leader Pat Nolan of Glendale.

Bird, whose critics contend that she is too liberal and soft on crime, is up for confirmation on the November ballot. And Republican strategists believe that some of the hostility directed at her could rub off on liberal Democrats if they are forced to defend her. Thus far, however, Democratic candidates are trying to avoid being drawn into the Bird controversy.

But Democratic campaign strategist Richard Ross said of the GOP tactic: “I have never believed in the coattail effect. These are the same Republican strategists who told the newspapers in 1980 and 1984 that Ronald Reagan would sweep many Assembly Democrats down to defeat. It didn’t work then and it won’t work now.”

The fund-raising dinner Wednesday night was attended by more than 250 donors who paid $500 per plate to dine with the governor and GOP legislators at the Century Plaza--helping finance what is widely expected to be yet another record-setting election year for spending on California legislative campaigns.

Ticket buyers to the dinner included representatives of Union Oil, Atlantic Richfield, Occidental Petroleum, Coca-Cola and the savings and loan and insurance industries. To hedge their bets, some of these groups are also buying tickets to Democratic Assembly Speaker Willie Brown’s $550-a-plate fund-raiser Dec. 1 at the Century Plaza.

Deukmejian, in remarks to the donors, decried the “years of deficit and decline” that he claimed had occurred under the Democratic leadership of former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., and said he hopes “to make 1986 a banner year for Republicans.”

Assembly GOP Leader Nolan said in an interview that he not only is optimistic about holding all 33 current Republican seats, but also believes that the GOP can win several of the 47 Democratic seats.

Nolan has set a goal of raising $1.5 million for the campaigns of Republican Assembly candidates. In comparison, Speaker Brown hopes to raise $2 million for the campaigns of Democratic Assembly candidates.

Ross, who is Brown’s director of political operations and doubles as the Speaker’s chief of staff, predicted that the Republicans could lose “two or three seats.” All 80 Assembly seats are up for election.

In his scenario, Democrats would hold all their seats and pick up at least two Republican seats from among half a dozen that will be hotly contested. They include four “open” GOP seats because the incumbents are running for higher offices.

Those seats are occupied by GOP Assemblymen Don Rogers of Bakersfield, who is running for the state Senate; Don A. Sebastiani of Sonoma, a candidate for lieutenant governor; Phillip D. Wyman of Tehachapi, running for state controller, and Bob Naylor of Menlo Park, a U.S. Senate candidate.

Nolan, however, said he considered only the Sebastiani seat in danger.

He and other Republicans think 1986 could turn into a watershed year like 1978, when Proposition 13, the property-tax-cutting initiative, was approved by voters. The proposal was widely viewed as a critical factor in the net gain of seven GOP seats in the Assembly that year.

Nolan expresses confidence that the GOP will become the majority party in the Assembly by 1990. He said the long-range goal is for Republicans to win two or three seats in each of the 1986, 1988 and 1990 elections.

Republicans mounted aggressive but unsuccessful campaigns against five Democratic incumbents in the last elections and say they will target the same Democrats in 1986.

Bill Saracino, a campaign strategist and top assistant to Nolan, said: “Last year, we missed picking up five seats by a combined 22,000 votes. Those five seats constitute our primary targets.”

Three of the Democratic incumbents considered vulnerable by Republicans are:

- Assemblyman Richard Robinson in Orange County’s 72nd District. The Democratic incumbent, who has been linked to former fireworks manufacturer W. Patrick Moriarty, who has pleaded guilty to political corruption charges, beat Republican real estate broker Richard E. Longshore of Anaheim by a razor-thin 256-vote margin at the last election. Even so, Longshore has continued campaigning, and Republicans think he can win next year. The district includes Garden Grove, Robinson’s home base, Santa Ana, Anaheim and part of Westminster.

- The open seat of Assemblywoman Jean M. Duffy (D-Citrus Heights) in the 5th District, which includes parts of Sacramento and Placer counties. Duffy’s announcement that she is retiring is believed to have given a big boost to Republican businessman Tim Leslie, who lost to Duffy by only 1,300 votes last time.

- Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Sepulveda) in the northeast San Fernando Valley’s 39th District. Katz, a member of Speaker Brown’s inner circle, got a tougher battle than expected in the last election from Los Angeles Police Department Lt. Robert F. Thoreson, who ran an under-financed campaign. Thoreson, like Leslie and Longshore, also kept on campaigning.

The other two of the five targeted Democratic seats are those of Assemblymen Steve Clute of Riverside and Dan Hauser of Arcata. Clute, in Riverside County’s 68th District, is a perennial Republican goal. Hauser, who represents the 2nd District on the North Coast, could be in political trouble if Humboldt County Supervisor Danny Walsh decides to run against him again. The two waged a bitter battle last time.

Democrats hope to take some of the pressure off their incumbents by keeping Republicans busy defending open seats.

The Democrats’ best chance, according to strategists in both parties, may be in Sebastiani’s 8th District, which includes parts of Sonoma, Napa, Lake and Solano counties. Democrat Mary Jadiker, who ran a close race against Sebastiani last time is expected to try again. Sebastiani won by only a 4% margin.

In addition to the open seats, Democrats are also expected to try to regain southeast Los Angeles County’s 63rd District, held until 1984 by veteran Democrat Bruce Young. Assemblyman Wayne Grisham of Norwalk, a former GOP congressman, won the seat last year despite a big Democratic voter registration and a well-financed campaign mounted by local school board member Dianne Xitco. The district was 59.9% Democrat to 32.6% Republican as of last March.

Republicans also are anxiously awaiting the outcome of a Southern California Democratic primary race that has attracted considerable attention.

In the 46th Assembly District, which includes the Los Feliz and Silver Lake areas of Los Angeles, the business connections between Assembly Democratic Floor Leader Mike Roos and Moriarty, the former fireworks manufacturer, are shaping up into an issue for the upcoming June primary. Roos is expected to be challenged by Peter Scott, a lawyer who is a co-founder of the Municipal Election Committee of Los Angeles, one of the city’s most powerful gay political organizations.