The Times Poll : Americans Back Reagan but Limit Summit Hopes

The American people hold limited expectations for the first U.S.-Soviet summit conference in 6 1/2 years but have expressed strong confidence in President Reagan in his role as their bargaining agent, a Los Angeles Times Poll indicates.

By a substantial margin, those surveyed said they anticipated a successful outcome to the meetings Reagan will hold Tuesday and Wednesday with Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev--49% predicting success and 24% predicting failure, with the rest either unsure or doubting either result.

Thus, the nationwide survey--conducted by telephone from Nov. 1 to 7, before the President’s nationally televised address last Thursday evening--found a mood of cautious optimism, although the public’s definition of success for the meetings is modest.

That definition--that the meetings will give Reagan and Gorbachev a chance to “become better acquainted” or that they will lead to more talks--falls well short of such tangible progress as the signing of specific agreements.

And, while the survey found what I.A. Lewis, director of the Times Poll, characterized as “a deep-seated apprehension about dealing with the Soviet Union, and a lack of confidence that the Soviets will abide by arms control agreements,” it also found that a majority of Americans who have an opinion about Gorbachev have a favorable impression of him.

The poll found Americans nearly evenly divided over whether the Soviets want to reach an arms control agreement--a sharp change from March, 1982, when two out of three of those surveyed who had an opinion said they did not think the Soviet Union was interested in achieving such an accord. Over the same span, the percentage of Americans saying they believed that the United States was interested in such a pact grew from 52% to 77%.

However, 58% of those surveyed in the latest poll said they believed that the United States was not as close to peace as it was five years ago, when Reagan was elected to his first term, compared to 32% who said the nation was closer to peace and 10% who were unsure.

The sampling error of the telephone poll of 2,041 people was plus or minus 3%, meaning that results could vary by three percentage points in either direction if all Americans were surveyed in the same way.

The poll found wide support for U.S.-Soviet cultural exchanges, with Americans favoring them by a ratio of more than 8 to 1. In his speech Thursday night, Reagan said he would propose to Gorbachev “the broadest people-to-people exchanges in the history of American-Soviet relations,” involving culture, sports, education and the arts. The United States suspended the most recent cultural accord in 1979 to protest the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.

The poll found that Americans continue to think highly of Reagan, particularly for a President completing his fifth year in office, with 71% of the respondents reporting a favorable impression and 24% unfavorable.

His support has been bolstered, in recent months, by the release of the hostages kidnaped aboard TWA flight 847 and held in Beirut last June; by sympathy stemming from Reagan’s cancer surgery in July, and by his handling of the Achille Lauro cruise ship hijacking in October.

The approaching conference, which is viewed by poll respondents as “Reagan’s summit,” might also be serving to rally support for the President.

The Times Poll found that, by a margin of almost 3 to 1, those surveyed believed that if the summit is a success, Reagan would gain more praise, worldwide, than would Gorbachev. However, by a 2-1 margin, it was also believed that he would receive more blame if the summit is judged a failure.

Still, Reagan stands to gain little long-term popularity as a result of the summit if the pattern found after previous such meetings is repeated. Gallup Polls over the last 30 years have found only small shifts in popularity--a contradiction of the conventional wisdom that a President, appearing as a statesman, stands to gain by such a meeting.

Reflecting an apparent interest in moving ahead with arms negotiations, the Times Poll found mixed support for the Administration’s $1-trillion military buildup, with half indicating that it is a positive development “because it has brought about a resumption of arms control talks” and one-third considering it negative “because it has contributed to greater world instability.”

Although the public, by a 60%-35% margin, wants Reagan to take an aggressive stance at the summit, a majority expressed the belief that the United States’ objectives should be to reduce world tensions, rather than negotiating a stronger military position or influencing world public opinion.

In the area of U.S.-Soviet relations, the poll found that half of the population believes that there has been no change since Reagan’s election in 1980, 28% sense an improvement and 16% think that relations have grown worse.

Gorbachev’s elevation March 11 to the most powerful position in the Kremlin--that of general secretary of the Soviet Communist Party--has been accompanied by a new Soviet public relations effort aimed at the West. Despite that, slightly more than half of those surveyed said they did not think that U.S.-Soviet relations are likely to become more friendly. One-third predicted an improvement, and approximately 4 out of 10 said Gorbachev is more interested in peace with the West than his predecessors.

By almost a 5-1 margin, those surveyed said they believed that Reagan is more committed to nuclear arms control than Gorbachev, and twice as many believed that the President is better informed than Gorbachev about the issues that will be discussed at the summit, a sign that confidence in the President remains high.

Those polled were evenly split as to whether the Soviet Union wants to achieve an arms control agreement. Almost half of those polled adhere to the view that the Soviet Union is an “evil empire” that threatens this nation’s moral and religious values--a description once used by Reagan--and 66% believe that if the United States and the Soviets reach a nuclear arms agreement, the Soviets could not be trusted to comply. These views were most strongly held among those expressing the strongest religious beliefs and among the less-educated. Figures in these areas have remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 1/2 years.

Despite such skepticism, 46% think the United States should sign a nuclear arms pact, even if there is a 75% or less certainty that the Kremlin would not violate it.

PRE-SUMMIT COMPARISONS OF . . .

. . .LEADERS What is your impression of Ronald Reagan?

Favorable 71% Unfavorable 24%

Don’t know 2%

Not aware 3%

What is your impression of Mikhail Gorbachev?

Favorable 33%

Unfavorable 18%

Don’t know 12%

Not aware 37%

Compared with previous American presidents, would you say that Ronald Reagan is more interested in peace with Russia, or about the same, or less interested?

More interested 38%

Less interested 15%

Same 42% Don’t know 5%

Compared with previous Soviet leaders, would you say that Mikhail Gorbachev is more interested in peace with the West, or about the same, or less interested?

More interested 39% Less interested 8%

Same 37%

Don’t know 16%

. . . TRUST

If the United States and the Soviet Union were to reach agreement on nuclear weapons control, do you think the Americans could be trusted to keep their part of the bargain, or not?

Trusted 70% Not trusted 23%

Don’t know 7%

If the United States and the Soviet Union were to reach agreement on nuclear weapons control, do you think the Russians could be trusted to keep their part of the bargain, or not?

Trusted 24%

Not trusted 66% Don’t know 10%

. . .PEACE

Do you think the leaders of the United States really want to reach agreement on nuclear weapons or not--or haven’t you heard enough about that yet to say?

Want to 77% Don’t want to 13%

Don’t know 5%

Not aware 5%

Do you think the leaders of the Soviet Union really want to reach agreement on nuclear weapons or not--or haven’t you heard enough about that yet to say?

Want to 41% Don’t want to 39%

Don’t know 10%

Not aware 10%