Analysis : Agreement Seen as Bold Initiative by London and Dublin : Protestant Backlash in Ulster May Lack Target

Protestant backlash, which twice before in this century has scuttled potential breakthroughs in Northern Ireland, is likely to be severely blunted by the structure of the Anglo-Irish agreement signed Friday and the prevailing political climate in the troubled province.

In the wake of the accord, seen as a bold initiative by the governments in London and Dublin to reduce the level of Ulster’s sectarian violence, attention has shifted to the Protestant reaction.

Although the agreement is clearly written and lacking in the ambiguities so often a part of controversial international treaties, the document contains few specific details for the Protestants to focus on.

Emotional subjects--such as changes in the Ulster judiciary to include judges from the Irish Republic to the south, or restructuring the province’s security forces to make them more acceptable to the Roman Catholic minority--are couched in phrases such as a “commitment to consider,” a formulation that provides limitless flexibility to those charged with putting the agreement’s principles into effect.

Council a Flashpoint

The most obvious immediate target for Protestant protest is the joint British-Irish Intergovernmental Council, created by the agreement as the body where Dublin can propose political, legal and security measures for the north. As such, the council will symbolize the republic’s new presence in Ulster, a presence that hard-line Protestants fear is the first step to a united, Catholic-dominated Ireland.

However, terms of the agreement make even this a nebulous focal point. There is no mention where the council will have its offices, although British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher indicated that it would be in Belfast unless security concerns require otherwise. Furthermore, a statement attached to the agreement noted that neither the council’s meetings nor its agendas would be made public.

Leaders of Ulster’s majority Protestant community Saturday, meeting in an emergency session of the Northern Ireland Assembly, continued their vehement denunciation of the agreement.

The Rev. Ian Paisley, head of the Democratic Unionist Party, predicted that reaction to the accord would make Ulster ungovernable. He challenged Thatcher to conduct a referendum on the agreement, adding: “If the British government is determined to reject the ballot box to have a referendum, then they are making the choice of anarchy, not us.”

The Belfast daily News Letter, which reflects views of the Protestant community, labeled the agreement “a hodgepodge of intrigue, double-dealing, skulduggery and downright deceit.”

Protest May Be Costly

But behind this inflammatory rhetoric, there were signs that Protestant politicians may be hard-pressed to organize the kind of mass protests that brought down a carefully negotiated agreement that briefly gave the minority Catholics a share of political power in Northern Ireland in the early 1970s.

Earlier this century, Protestant threats of civil war made the British Parliament back away from granting independence to a united Ireland, a development that eventually led to the island’s division and the creation of Northern Ireland from the island’s six northern counties in 1921.

One tactic of opposition to the present agreement, calling for Protestant members of the Northern Ireland Assembly to resign their seats in protest, was delayed after members balked at losing salaries of about $15,000 a year.

These assemblymen have since agreed to boycott sessions rather than resign--and then only if an initial series of protest measures, including the resignation of their own political leaders from the British Parliament in London, fails to sway Thatcher’s government.

Record-high unemployment is also likely to make rank-and-file Protestants reluctant to go out on strike, as they did in 1974 when the jobless rate was at one of its lowest levels of the postwar period.

The prospect of confronting a tough prime minister in Thatcher, who has both a comfortable majority in Parliament and the bulk of British public opinion behind her, is an additional factor in dampening Protestant enthusiasm for a fight.

Support for Extremism

The size of the turnout at a mass rally called here for next Saturday by Protestant leaders to voice opposition to the agreement may be an initial test of such enthusiasm for combat.

Ironically, the central thrust of the Anglo-Irish accord is aimed at countering a recent alarming surge of support for political extremism within the Catholic community.

Baffling Contradictions

The possibility that Protestant resistance should threaten an agreement aimed at emasculating their most dreaded enemies, notably the outlawed Irish Republican Army, is only one of the many baffling contradictions of the centuries-old Irish religious conflict.

It is the idea of weaning moderate Catholic nationalists away from violence and extremism by giving them a greater stake in the new Ulster political framework that is so strongly opposed by Protestants. They see the accord as the beginning of the end to their long political monopoly over the province.

The totality of this monopoly has left Protestant leaders with no precedent for compromise, even on trivial matters.