L.A. to Top N.Y.’s Census in 15 Years

Los Angeles will top New York City in population by the turn of the century, making it the most populous metropolitan area in the nation, new government projections showed today.

The study by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis projects that the Los Angeles metropolitan area, as defined by Los Angeles County, will grow to a population of 8.87 million by the year 2000.

New York is expected to have 8.43 million people at that time. The analysis projects growth of 13.5% in Los Angeles between 1983 and 2000, and of only 1.7% for New York.

(The study contradicts a May, 1984, report by Rand Corp. demographers that said the population boom in both the city and county of Los Angeles was slowing down and another issued by the state in 1983 that the county would not be a major focus of an expected 30% growth in population statewide in the next 40 years.)

The new Bureau of Economic Analysis projections cover the 55 largest metropolitan areas in the nation--those expected to have a population of 1 million people or more in the year 2000.

Basic Areas Covered

The projections are prepared every five years by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and cover the basic Metropolitan Statistical Areas, formerly known as Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget.

The statistics differ somewhat from separate Census Bureau studies, which combine some metropolitan areas into larger “consolidated” statistical areas.

Census studies often refer to a consolidated New York area including the separate metro areas of Bergen, N.J.; Bridgeport, Conn.; Middlesex, N.J.; Jersey City, N.J.; Monmouth, N.J., Newark, N.J., and Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., in addition to the basic New York metropolitan area.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis considers the basic New York metro area to include New York City and Putnam, Westchester and Rockland counties.

L.A. County Basic Area

By the same token, the Census Bureau’s Los Angeles consolidated area includes the basic metropolitan areas of Los Angeles, Anaheim, Oxnard and Riverside. The basic metro area considered in the BEA study, however, is limited to Los Angeles County.

Rounding out the list of the nation’s five largest metropolitan areas in 2000 are Chicago, with 6.131 million people projected; Philadelphia, 4.914 million, and Detroit, 4.265 million.

The projections call for West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, Fla., to be the fastest-growing metropolitan area, jumping 61.3% to a population of 1.063 million by the year 2000.