No Clear Favorite for Cup in Soccer

Next year’s World Cup soccer finals in Mexico are shaping up as the most wide open since Sweden was host to the tournament 27 years ago.

None of the top six seeded nations has emerged as a clear favorite to lift the solid gold cup on June 29--and on current form at least half the 24 qualifiers are in with a chance of winning the tournament.

Even Joao Havelange, the president of FIFA, world soccer’s governing body, has stated publicly: “The World Cup next year is wide open. No one country could be counted as a favorite for victory. The tournament could be the most open for years, and therefore that much harder to win.”

The six top seeded players, nominated by FIFA last month, host Mexico, three-time champion Brazil, world champion Italy, European champion France, West Germany, beaten in the 1982 final, and losing semifinalist Poland.

The draw in Mexico City on Sunday, Dec. 15, is guaranteed to keep those nations apart in the early rounds--but their results during the last year do not guarantee that any of them will be meeting in the later stages.

Although Mexico, hosting the tournament for the second time in 16 years, seems to have a better team than in 1970, its recent form and soccer history suggests it will not join Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), West Germany (1974) and Argentina (1978) as winning hosts.

Italy, still guided by Enzo Bearzot, who coached it to victory in 1982, failed to qualify for the European championship last year, and has had a mixed bag of results playing friendlies in the last 12 months. No European country has yet succeeded in winning the World Cup when it has been played in South or Central America, although Italy reached the final in Mexico in 1970 when it lost 4-1 to Brazil.

Brazil, always considered a threat, qualified without any problems, but its current young team has a lot of ground to make up in the next six months to be considered a serious contender this time around.

European champion France had a topsy-turvy qualifying campaign, and will be relying on the same basic midfield axis of Michel Platini and Alain Giresse, who have done so well in the last four years. But neither man will be under 30 by the time the tournament starts.

West German Coach Franz Beckenbauer has the right basis of youth and experience in his squad. West Germany, which normally prepares everything meticulously, reached the semifinals in Mexico in 1970 when it lost a thrilling match, 4-3, to Italy after extra time.

But it has failed to win any of its past six matches and Beckenbauer, who captained his country to victory in 1974, needs to find a winning formula soon.

Polish Coach Anton Piechnicek has been experimenting lately, and recent results include a 1-0 win over Italy. But Poland, which finished third in two of the last three tournaments, still has that look of the bridesmaid and not the bride.

Argentina, one of six second seeded qualifiers--the others are England, Uruguay, Spain, Soviet Union and Northern Ireland--looks capable of maintaining a serious challenge in Mexico.

It will be anchored in midfield by Diego Maradona, the world’s most expensively priced player who has matured somewhat in the last four years in Europe and was voted “Player of the Year” in Italy recently for his performances with Napoli. If he is allowed to display some of his undoubted individual gifts, Argentina could excel in the Latin American atmosphere.

Almost every team competing in Mexico will have a common enemy--the tough climatic conditions in the country.

Most of the venues are thousands of feet above sea level, but even at Monterrey, the lowest venue, 1,700 feet above sea level, the temperature is even fiercer than those situated on the higher plateaus.

Added to that problem are the kickoff times, which controversially, as in 1970, have been fitted in to coincide with peak viewing hours in Europe.

The games will start either at noon in about 100-degree heat or at 4 p.m. with the heat only marginally less severe.

The remaining qualifiers are Bulgaria, Belgium, Denmark, Portugal, Hungary and Scotland from Europe, Paraguay, and the outsiders Morocco, Algeria, South Korea, Canada and Iraq, which has reached Mexico without playing one single match at home.

FIFA ordered Iraq to play all its home games on neutral territory because of its continuing war with Iran, and even though it is rated at 500-1 to win the tournament, it has pulled off a major achievement already.

Scotland became the 24th and final nation to qualify on Dec. 4 when it drew, 0-0, with Australia in Melbourne to clinch their playoff tie on a 2-0 aggregate.

That match was the 308th and last in an 18-month qualifying campaign that has stretched around all five continents and seen the elimination of countries with a fine World Cup pedigree like two-time runner-up Holland and Czechoslovakia, Austria, Yugoslavia, Peru, and Chile.

In their place, Portugal will be appearing for the first time since 1966, Paraguay for the first time since 1958 and South Korea for the first time since 1954.

Denmark, which qualified for the European championship for the first time last year and reached the semifinals, will be making its first appearance in the World Cup finals, as will Canada and Iraq.

The qualifying campaign began 19 months ago when Austria beat Cyprus, 2-1, in Nicosia on May 2, 1984, but the Austrians failed to last the course and Hungary clinched the berth at its expense with a 3-0 win in Vienna last April, fully 13 months before the big kickoff.

But some of Europe’s more fancied teams had a much tougher struggle. France needed a victory in its last match on Nov. 16 against Yugoslavia in Paris to ensure its qualification--and duly won 2-0 with two goals from Platini.

It was the third successive time that France had been in the position of having to win its final qualifying match at home to reach the finals. Each time it did so, each time Platini scored the decisive goal.

Portugal also had a perilous qualifying campaign, but finally won through in superb style in October when it became the first country ever to defeat West Germany in a qualifying match, a record that stretched back more than 50 years.

A 1-0 win at Stuttgart, thanks to an historic Carlos Manuel goal and a 2-1 defeat for Sweden on the same night in Czechoslovakia, swung it for the Portuguese, semifinalists in the European championship last year.

England, the 1966 world champion, was the only team in the European competition to remain unbeaten and made sure of its place in October with a 5-0 drubbing of Turkey.

A month later, Northern Ireland edged Romania for the second spot in Group Three with a scoreless draw in London against England, and that almost certainly means that goalkeeper Pat Jennings, who will be 41 during the tournament, will play in his second successive World Cup finals.

Jennings’ professional career began in 1963 and his was a fairy-tale story when Northern Ireland qualified for Spain four years ago. Now in semi-retirement, and keeping fit by playing reserve team soccer in London, Jennings is set to add to his 113 caps--a world record for a goalkeeper.

A FIFA observer watched the match in London to ensure England did not “help” its British neighbor qualify--but there was no FIFA observer watching for fair play for a match in which one British team knocked out another.

Spain, Scotland and Wales were involved in a tight struggle in Group Seven. On Sept. 10 Wales was within nine minutes of qualifying for Mexico, leading Scotland 1-0 at home.

But then Scotland was awarded a penalty that Davie Cooper converted--and effectively meant that for the second time in four years, Scotland had eliminated Wales.

That draw in Wrexham left Spain only to beat Iceland at home to qualify, Scotland had to knockout the part-timers from Australia--and Wales was out.

Scotland’s delight was dimmed by the death of Scottish coach Jock Stein, 62, who collapsed and died shortly after the draw in Wrexham.

The closest qualifying battle of all was fought out in Europe’s Group Six.

With more than half the games completed, all five countries--Denmark, the Soviet Union, Switzerland, the Republic of Ireland and Norway--had a fair chance of qualifying, but it was finally the Danes and the Soviets that won through.

Uruguay became the first nation to qualify for the finals after Italy and Mexico, winning three of its four group matches.

Argentina’s place was rarely in doubt and neither was Brazil’s, but Paraguay came in through the side door after winning the final playoff round against Chile.

Morocco and Algeria came through a marathon African qualifying zone and both will be making their second appearance in the finals. Morocco’s only other appearance was in Mexico in 1970, but it is doubtful whether it will improve on its record then when it drew once and lost twice in the opening round.

Algeria caused one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history in 1982 when it defeated West Germany 2-1, and was only denied a place in the next round after a “contrived” result between the Germans and the Austrians.

South Korea and Iraq wrapped up the two Asian places with final round victories over Japan and Syria respectively, while Canada’s qualification must set some kind of World Cup record.

Not only does it not have a national league, but also no professional teams in the accepted sense.