1986 IN RETROSPECT--SHOW BUSINESS AS USUAL

What a break. Just as I was about to sit down in front of my word processor to make a few predictions about what’s ahead for the film industry in 1986, a Federal Express deliveryman arrived at my door with a Christmas package.

The guy looked exactly like Henry Travers, the angel in “It’s a Wonderful Life,” and he had the same sort of . . . oh, spongy presence that made me wonder.

“I think you’ll find everything you need in here, sir,” he said, handing me a thick, heavy envelope. “I’d suggest you do it chronologically. Merry Christmas.”

Before I could ask what he meant by all that, he was gone. Vanished. He left me standing in the open doorway, listening to the sudden stirring of wind chimes, and wondering if this is what other writers refer to as “being visited by the muse.”

I opened the envelope and slowly withdrew its contents. Incredibly, it was a special Dec. 31, 1986, edition of the entertainment-industry trade paper Daily Variety, a review of the events of NEXT YEAR. I no longer had to worry about predicting the future; it was all laid out before me. Nothing to do but take notes.

The coming news was all there. Box-office grosses. Mergers. Firings and hirings. The best of columnist Army Archerd.

Eerily, there was even mention of this article--of this paragraph--which predicts that “Pee Wee’s Big Adventure” will sweep the Golden Globe Awards, and that one of 1986’s biggest movie hits will be “The Bugle-Bugle Girls: The Story of the Andrews Sisters,” starring Pia Zadora, Linda Ronstadt and Boy George.

Generally, the news of 1986 will look much like that of ’85. Box-office business will continue its downward swing as studios simultaneously try to combat and exploit home video while production bosses sift through stacks of hasty scripts looking for teen-theme summer hits that could stretch their careers all the way into next winter.

The one bright spot for serious film makers, genuine movie lovers and exhibitors who are about to have their popcorn machines repossessed will come in a fall survey showing that VCR owners are beginning to grumble that new arrivals in video stores aren’t much better than old arrivals on free TV.

As one renter will succinctly note, “Three bucks for ‘Weird Science’?”

Anyway, here are some of the stories that will make the headlines in Hollywood during 1986:

Jan. 8: The Ted Turner/Cabbage Patch Dolls buyout of MGM is off. According to sources close to the deal, Cabbage Patch pulled out when it learned that it could not adopt the Munchkins from “Wizard of Oz.” Turner says he’ll continue to look for a financial partner in his nearly yearlong attempt to put Leo the Lion on his payroll. “Tomorrow,” Turner said, quoting from his favorite MGM movie, “is another day.”

Jan. 17: Universal Pictures Chairman Frank Price, who has been rumored to be going to either Columbia or MGM, denies a report that he will soon jump to either Orion Pictures or Paramount. “I’m as happy as a clam at Universal,” Price says.

Feb. 3: Actor Sean Penn refuses to apologize for punching a photographer during an album jacket photo session for his wife, rock star Madonna, in a Manhattan studio. “How was I to know she hired him?” Penn snapped at reporters. “I walked in and here’s a guy stealing my wife’s soul with a camera. What would you do?” The photographer, Richard Avedon, says he will not press charges.

Feb. 10: Robert Wise, president of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, announces the first cancellation of an Oscar show since World War II. Wise says there were not enough nominees from preliminary voting to fill out the ballot in each category. Through her publicist, Sally Field objected, saying “How will I know if they still like me, if they really like me?”

March 7: Steven Spielberg begins production on “The Color Green,” the sequel to his slick adaptation of Alice Walker’s novel “The Color Purple.” In “Green,” Celie and Mister form a vaudeville act and take it to Broadway where they meet an agent with extraterrestrial powers who helps them get rich and buy a home in Westchester County.

March 21: The Reagan Administration, announcing its determination to balance the federal budget, has hired three veteran studio accountants as economic advisers. “What we need around here,” said one source close to the Administration, “is some creative bookkeeping.”

April 9: Gary Franklin gives his first 20 to a movie called “High Five,” a teen comedy dealing with drug abuse in a family of quintuplets. “It’s real good,” Franklin sharply observes.

April 24: The Motion Picture Assn. of America, under pressure to provide parents with more specific information about film content, announces the addition of 47 new movie ratings. Among them: PG-13/SA(M)/AWFN/F1 (may be too strong for children under age 13 because of Substance Abuse (Marijuana), Above the Waist Female Nudity, and one use of a real bad word). A 450-page ratings brief will soon be made available in theater lobbies.

May 20: Frank Price is rumored to be going to United Artists to replace Jerry Weintraub who just went to Disney to replace Michael Eisner who recently became an independent producer. “Not true,” says Price. “Universal is my home.”

June 3: Ticket prices in Westwood are raised to $7. “Movies are still the best buy in entertainment,” says one exhibitor, standing in front of a marquee featuring “Pee-wee Goes to Hawaii.”

July 23: Joan Collins, declaring that “a woman is only as old as a man feels,” announces that she will play the Sandra Dee role in a remake of “A Summer Place,” to be directed by Elia Kazan for Cannon Films. Rob Lowe will play the part that made Troy Donahue a household name in the ‘50s.

Aug. 6: Chevrolet, taking its cue from the Coca-Cola Co.’s experience with Columbia Pictures, announces that it is taking over Warner Bros. where it will immediately begin using movies to plug its products. “We have research that shows people will go to see a movie about Delco batteries,” a Chevy insider said. Frank Price denies reports that he will oversee the Chevy studio.

Sept. 16: Film critics Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert got into a fistfight while debating the merits of “Karate Kid II” during their taped review show “At the Movies.” Siskel, who doesn’t like the picture, was calling it a bold rip-off of the “Rocky” series when Ebert, who does like it, reached over and tweaked Siskel’s nose. The ensuing fight was not edited out of the show. “Their fans like it when they disagree,” said the program’s producer. Gary Franklin gave it a 10.

Oct. 2: Rupert Murdoch’s first movie at Fox, “Mom Found Stuffed in Refrigerator,” is the summer’s surprise box-office hit.

Oct. 23: Sylvester Stallone’s modest autobiography--”What It’s Like Being Me”--tops the New York Times best-seller list.

Nov. 5: Ted Turner announces that Midas Mufflers has pulled out of his latest MGM buyout plan. FTD Florists, he says, is extremely interested.

Nov. 19: Steven Spielberg agrees to an extraordinary cloning experiment, to be financed by the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television producers. If successful, Spielberg clones will be distributed to each of the major studios and TV networks, with leftover fertile cells going to the USC Film School.

Nov. 26: An inexpensive artificial popcorn, made from Styrofoam and soybean oil and available in such flavors as Sichuan pork and wild berry tofutti, is introduced at the Beverly Cineplex.

Dec. 8: Frank Price denies reports that he will head a new studio being formed by the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Co., which last week announced plans to produce movies with a lot of cigarettes in them. Price says “Universal has been good to me.”

Dec. 15: Rain forces cancellation of world premiere of Eddie Murphy’s “Dream Child.” Gary Franklin gives it a 10 anyway. “I laughed so hard, I woke myself up,” he says.