The Times Poll : Deukmejian Holds Only Slim Lead Over Bradley

Gov. George Deukmejian holds only a slim lead over Mayor Tom Bradley in this preliminary phase of their gubernatorial race--but he is still running far ahead of the pace he set four years ago when he beat Bradley for the governorship, The Times Poll has found.

Interviews with 1,263 registered California voters showed Deukmejian to be leading Bradley by six percentage points, 46%-40%, with 6% undecided and 8% saying they either would vote for somebody else or nobody at all. This six-point spread, when a 4% margin of error is considered, means that statistically the two may be running almost neck-and-neck.

Most of the political experts have handicapped the race as a near-cinch for Deukmejian. But there was ample evidence in this telephone survey, taken Jan. 29-Feb. 4, to illustrate that the governor cannot afford to take his reelection for granted and that Bradley basically is very popular with the voters.

The invaluable incumbency factor--coupled with the apparent lack of any widespread, overriding compulsion by Californians to yank their governor from office--is what largely has made Deukmejian the heavy favorite of political pros to win a second term.

And while on the surface, based on this latest poll, Deukmejian might seem to be positioned near the edge of a political precipice, his status should be viewed in relation to 1982, when he edged Bradley by a scant 1.2% of the vote.

At about this stage four years ago, Deukmejian--then the state attorney general--was trailing Mayor Bradley by 29 points in a Times poll. In September, 1982, after he had become the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Deukmejian still was lagging 18 points behind Democrat Bradley in a Times survey. He was nine points behind a month later. In fact, no major public poll taken by anybody ever had Deukmejian ahead of Bradley before election day.

Campaign Under Way

While neither man has officially announced his candidacy for a rematch, these formalities will be taken care of by the filing deadline of March 7, and both have been campaigning for months anyway. They have not especially excited the voters, the poll found.

Of those surveyed, only about half said they were certain to vote for their current favorite. The other half said they might switch to another candidate before the November election. This was true both of Deukmejian’s and Bradley’s supporters.

Bradley’s inability so far to find a big issue to use effectively against Deukmejian was illustrated by the responses of people who said they wanted to spend more tax money for education and toxic waste cleanup.

Split Down Middle

They split down the middle between the two candidates, despite the fact that Bradley has been attacking the governor on these two issues. The mayor’s potential for capitalizing heavily on them would seem to be minimized by the fact that the incumbent also wants to spend more money on schools and toxic waste, and has.

The poll also uncovered a potential pitfall for Bradley--the danger of his becoming widely perceived as a candidate who flip-flops on the issues for political expediency. Deukmejian has been fond of pointing out that the mayor supported an unsuccessful gun control initiative during the last gubernatorial election but recently announced he now would oppose any such measure.

Bradley also dropped his long opposition to an Occidental Oil Corp. proposal to drill on the coastline at Pacific Palisades and approved the project last year, angering local residents and environmentalists.

Negative Impact

When those surveyed in The Times Poll were asked whether Bradley’s changing his mind on such issues would make them more likely or less likely to vote for him, about half said it would make no difference. But 29% said they would be less likely to support the mayor, and only 11% said they would be more likely--a net negative impact of 18%.

Some opponents of the death penalty have objected to the vigor with which Bradley, who during his mayoral tenure had said little on the subject, suddenly began advocating capital punishment last year. But voters in this poll who supported the death penalty--and three-fourths of them did--favored Deukmejian by a 17-point spread.

Still, Bradley appears to have been politically wise in letting voters know that he favors capital punishment. Asked whether they would be more likely or less likely to vote for him because of this stand, the 42% who reported it would make a difference said, by 4-1, that they would be more likely to vote for the mayor.

Made Good Impressions

Both candidates actually have made very good impressions on the voters--particularly Bradley. Of those surveyed, 78% held a favorable impression of the mayor. Only 14% viewed him unfavorably.

Deukmejian’s rating was 65%-27% favorable. And even Democrats held a 55%-36% favorable impression of the Republican governor, illustrating that there is a minimum of negative feeling toward the incumbent on the part of California voters.

Voters, nevertheless, have a lot of positive attitudes about Bradley.

On the key but often intangible issue of trust, half those surveyed felt Deukmejian and Bradley are equally “trustworthy.” But those who felt there was a difference between the two picked Bradley as the most trustworthy by 3-2.

Voters believed Bradley and Deukmejian possess equal “qualities of leadership,” despite the governor’s heavy touting of his leadership--for example, persistently calling California under his Administration “the leadership state.”

Support for Deukmejian

Generally, Deukmejian draws support from people who want less government regulation of business, advocate prayer in public schools, oppose amnesty for aliens and favor spending cuts rather than tax increases to balance the federal budget.

Bradley is especially popular with people who approve of abortion, affirmative action, giving more benefits to poor people and increasing government control of handguns.

There is a gender gap at work in the governor’s contest. Men favored Deukmejian by 53%-36%, but women went with Bradley by 44%-40%.

Whites supported Deukmejian 52%-35%. Conversely, Latinos favored Bradley by the same proportion. And Blacks went lopsidedly for Bradley, who is black, by 83%-8%. Blacks traditionally vote heavily Democratic. Geographically, Deukmejian and Bradley ran dead-even in Los Angeles County. Deukmejian, a former legislator from Long Beach, has been campaigning extensively in the county in recent months in an effort to boost his popularity here.

Most for Deukmejian

Throughout the rest of Southern California, Deukmejian was favored narrowly by about 5-4. Northern Californians also backed the governor, by about 5-4.

By age, voters under 40--the so-called baby boomers--favored Bradley slightly. But people older than that sided with Deukmejian by more than 4-3.

Democrats supported Bradley by 56%-28%. But Republicans backed Deukmejian 75%-17%. Independents split almost evenly.

As would be expected, liberals overwhelmingly backed Bradley and conservatives lopsidedly supported Deukmejian. But middle-of-the-roaders, a much larger group than either, gave Deukmejian an 11-point advantage.

The value of Deukmejian’s incumbency was illustrated when the poll interviewers, without mentioning the name of any candidate, asked people for whom they would vote if the election were being held today. The governor out-polled his expected challenger by 2-1, but about half the voters did not--perhaps could not--name any gubernatorial candidate.

Next, the value of party identification for a Democratic candidate was shown by telling the remaining half of the people that Bradley is a Democrat and Deukmejian is a Republican, and then asking which one they would vote for. Bradley won that match-up 2-1. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California by about 5-3, and the natural inclination for many of them at this stage of the campaign is to support their party’s candidate.

The 46%-40% standing was arrived at after combining the above results and adding people who, when pressed, said they were “leaning” toward one of the candidates.

THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR

These Los Angeles Times Poll results on the governor’s race are based on telephone interviews with 1,263 registered California voters.

Voters were asked their impression of the major candidates:

No Net Candidate Opinion Favorable Unfavorable Favorable Deukmejian 5% 65% 27% +38 Bradley 8% 78% 14% +64

Voters were asked which candidate they would vote for if the election were held today: Deukmejian (R) . . . 46% Bradley (D) . . . 40% Other . . . 8% Undecided . . . 6%