Castro Signals Stronger Ties With Kremlin

Cuban President Fidel Castro’s designation of his brother, Raul, as heir to the reins of government portends a strengthening of the Soviet grip on the island, U.S. experts on Cuba agree.

“I doubt that Raul and the ‘Raulistas’ can be said to be just conduits for Soviet policy, but they have a professional relationship with Moscow to a far greater degree than Fidel has ever had,” said UCLA political scientist Eduardo Gonzalez. He noted that the younger brother has worked with the Soviets for many years as Cuba’s defense minister.

At last week’s Third Congress of Cuba’s Communist Party, not only did Fidel formally designate Raul as his heir, but party officials also elevated Raul’s wife to the Politburo and removed two of his potential rivals. And beyond that, the Cuban government has let it be known that Raul will gradually take charge of domestic policy while Fidel retains the foreign policy reins.

“The Soviets were influential in the changes, insisting on more efficiency in the economy,” said Jaime Suchlicki, director of the University of Miami’s Center for Inter-American Studies. Instead of Fidel’s testy independence, Suchlicki said, the Soviets can count on full cooperation from Raul.

More Reliable

Wayne S. Smith, who served as chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana from 1979 until 1982 and is now associated with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, agreed that Raul at the Cuban helm would prove a much more reliable partner for Moscow.

William LeoGrande, a political scientist at American University, took a similar view. “He has always been perceived as more orthodox than Fidel and thus could be expected to be more favorable toward the Soviet Union,” LeoGrande said.

LeoGrande foresees an internal battle between Raul and moderates who still hold important posts if Raul hews to the orthodox Soviet line, placing Marxist ideology first and disdaining closer relations with the United States. Chief of the moderates, he said, is Vice President Carlos Rafael Rodriguez, an advocate of improving relations with Washington who may have growing support among civilian bureaucrats.

Strongest Rival Removed

The removal of Ramiro Valdes Menendez from the Politburo was seen by the experts as particularly significant because he was the strongest potential obstacle to the Castro “dynasty.” Valdes, as interior minister, was in charge of internal security forces, next to the army the most powerful political entity in Cuba.

Gonzalez speculated that one of the new Politburo members, Abelardo Colome, while counted as a loyal backer of Raul, might eventually demand a share of power once Fidel is gone from the scene.

“Colome sees himself as a hero because of his leadership of the overseas military operations in Ethiopia and Angola,” the UCLA professor said.

Gonzalez said he had expected Raul’s new responsibilities to be made formal, perhaps by reviving the title of prime minister once held by Fidel or at least naming him president of the Council of Ministers, a post still held by Fidel. No matter what Raul’s title, none of the experts believes he can quickly cure the island’s basic economic problems, including the depressed price of sugar and inefficiencies in the agricultural and industrial sectors.