Shultz Cites Implications if Sandinistas Prevail

Secretary of State George P. Shultz, underscoring the Reagan Administration’s appeal for $100 million in aid to rebels in Nicaragua, warned Sunday that a Communist victory over the rebels would “have global repercussions for U.S. policy.”

“It would severely damage our credibility with adversaries who would test our mettle and with those around the world who rely on us for support in their battles against tyranny,” Shultz said in a text prepared for delivery here today before a meeting of the Veterans of Foreign Wars meeting.

“If democratic aspiration is snuffed out in Nicaragua, then where can we claim to nurture or protect it?” Shultz asked. “If an armed aggressor on our own doorstep is allowed to have its way . . . then how can our reputation for deterring aggression be credible in places farther removed?”

Following up on arguments by both President Reagan and himself last week for aid to the rebels, known as contras, Shultz compared the situation in Nicaragua with that which led last week to the ouster of Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos but with the difference that repression of political opponents is “far worse in Nicaragua.”

While democratic forces were able to displace Marcos, Shultz said, “in Nicaragua, once the Communist regime consolidates its power, the forces of democracy will have no such hope.” And without U.S. help to opponents of the regime, he argued, “hope for democracy in Nicaragua is doomed.”

The United States still hopes to work through diplomacy to get the Sandinista government to “reverse its military buildup, to send its foreign advisers home and to stop oppressing its citizens and subverting its neighbors,” Shultz said. But he said the Administration believes that “military help for the democratic resistance will give the Nicaraguan Communists an incentive to negotiate seriously.”

President Reagan is expected to give a new push to his drive for congressional approval of the aid package, which would authorize $70 million in military aid and $30 million for economic assistance when he receives contra leaders at the White House today. .