County’s Democrats Pin Upset Hopes on 4 Races With GOP

As the filing period for legislative and judicial offices closed Friday, Orange County Democratic leaders conceded that, as in the past, their party could expect to lose most races to Republican incumbents.

That should come as no surprise. As of Friday, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats by the widest margin in 15 years--53% to 36%.

And Thomas A. Fuentes, the county Republican Party chairman, predicted that if Republicans continue a voter registration drive that is currently netting them from 200 to 400 new Republicans a week, “I see assured wins for all of our incumbent representatives. . . . So long as the (Republican voter) registration numbers stay high, we don’t have to worry.”

Still, Orange County’s mainly young Democratic activists are hoping to steal some turf in at least four key races--one congressional race, two Assembly races and a supervisorial race--this year.

$100,000 Drive

And if they can’t win those seats, Democratic leaders said they would at least like to make the Republicans pay a heavy price to defend them. Last month county Democrats began a $100,000 drive--their first in eight years--aimed at registering Democratic voters and recruiting Democratic volunteers.

And instead of dividing their limited resources among all county races as Democrats did two years ago, they are focusing on the contests they think they can win.

“We aren’t going to do as we did last time where we really had a tremendous effort in every race,” said Bruce W. Sumner, chairman of the Democratic Central Committee of Orange County. “It’s not politically wise to spend money in a race that’s almost impossible.”

This time, instead of battling secure Republican incumbents like Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton), who won by a 76% margin in 1984, Orange County Democrats are focusing first on the 38th Congressional District seat now held by Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove).

Democrats and Republicans alike are predicting that the race will become “a street fight,” as one strategist described it.

‘An Uphill Battle’

Said John Hanna, a past president of the Democratic Associates of Orange County and a member of the Democratic Central Committee of Orange County: “It’s definitely an uphill battle. But the guns are going to be turning on the 38th.”

Dornan, who filed for reelection late Friday, is a fiery-tempered conservative with a national following. A former Santa Monica-area congressman, Dornan lost that seat in Democrat-controlled reapportionment in 1982. He found a new district in north-central Orange County, moving there in 1984 and unseating in the process Rep. Jerry M. Patterson, a liberal Democrat who had served five terms.

Angry at Patterson’s loss, local Democrats, working with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington, more than a year ago targeted Dornan for removal. They laid plans to raise money and in November recruited Superior Judge David O. Carter, a former homicide prosecutor, to run against Dornan.

But the effort to unseat Dornan has been slowed until after the Democratic primary in June. Last month, six-term Assemblyman Richard Robinson (D-Garden Grove) angered some Orange County’s Democratic leaders by also filing for the congressional seat. Robinson, who is backed by some old-line Orange County Democrats, returned his papers Friday. Carter, viewed as a “grass-roots candidate” submitted several thousand signatures in lieu of the filing fee two weeks ago.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will not give money to either Robinson or Carter until one formally becomes the party’s nominee.

The Major Battlegrounds

Three other Orange County races are shaping up as major partisan battlegrounds:

-In the 72nd Assembly District, Santa Ana Mayor Dan Griset is the Democratic contender for the Assembly seat vacated by Robinson.

The leading Republican is Richard E. Longshore, 59, an Anaheim real estate broker who is making his third bid for the seat. In contrast with previous years, when Longshore largely ran on his own, this year he has financial backing from Orange County’s prestigious Lincoln Club, a Republican fund-raising group, and from the Assembly Republican Political Action Committee (ARPAC).

Both groups have already donated at least $20,000 to Longshore’s campaign. In addition, strategists from the state Republican Party have targeted the 72nd for victory this year; for several months the party has been running a registration drive there, in which Republican clubs and others who register Republicans receive a “bounty” of $2 per voter.

-In the 71st Assembly District, two-term incumbent Doris Allen (R-Cypress), 48, has been challenged by Mark S. Rosen of Garden Grove, an attorney and Democratic activist. Rosen, 33, has been walking precincts and has recruited about 70 volunteers in his bid to unseat Allen.

Republican Party Chairman Fuentes said, however, said he was confident all Republican incumbents, Allen among them, would keep their seats.

-In the supervisorial race, two Republican mayors and Democratic ex-congressman Jerry Patterson are running for the 4th District seat. James H. Beam, mayor of Orange, and Don Roth, mayor of Anaheim, are competing against Patterson, a former Santa Ana mayor as well as five-term member of the House of Representatives.

For Patterson, the race is an effort to return to Orange County politics after the loss of his congressional seat to Dornan.

Because Patterson is in this supposedly nonpartisan race, Fuentes predicts Republicans will be more involved in it. “There is a growing concern among party leaders that Democrats will attempt to partisanize that race, . . . that Jerry Patterson will attempt to use that office as a building block for the revitalization” of the Democratic Party in Orange County, Fuentes said.

Another significant race is the sheriff’s race. Brad Gates, Orange County’s sheriff for the past 10 years, is opposed by Bobby D. Youngblood, an Orange County Municipal Court judge who has taken a leave to campaign, and Linda Lea Calligan, the only female patrol sergeant in the Orange County Sheriff’s Department.

Calligan, 38, is a 15-year veteran of the department. Youngblood has a $10-million civil rights lawsuit pending against Gates, asserting that the sheriff has spied on him for political reasons.