Not So Small Change

The California Lottery may not be a bonanza for all. Nearly two-thirds of 1,200 grocery chains surveyed by the California Grocers Assn. have reported a decline in food sales since the lottery began last fall. The average drop was 7%. The others reported sales increases averaging 5%.

Grocery sales are subject to many forces, including seasonal changes in the pattern of purchases. But the decline starting with the launching of the lottery seems to be more than coincidence.

One Northern California chain is dropping lottery tickets. Jerry Nielsen, general manager of Holiday Quality Foods, said that profits have declined 10% since it started selling them. Nielsen noted that ticket sales soared during the recent floods in that area when thousands of customers were forced from their homes and apparently had a lot of time on their hands. “We think it was a situation of people buying lottery tickets insteadof food,” he said.

Lottery officials questioned Nielsen’s conclusions, but the grocery association’s survey is disturbing. More study and analysis is needed.For instance, do lottery sales go up on days when welfare and Social Security checks are delivered? Perhaps the Lottery Commission should join in such investigations. Certainly lottery officials need to be candid about the potential social effects of ticket sales. Nothing is likely to discouragepoor people from spending money on the lottery when perhaps it should be going for school lunches for the kids. That is their choice. But at least California would know the true cost of this venture.