U.S. Reportedly Hopes to Strengthen Anti-Kadafi Faction in Military

In planning U.S. Navy maneuvers in the Gulf of Sidra, Reagan Administration officials calculated that an armed conflict with Libya could strengthen underground opposition to Col. Moammar Kadafi within the Libyan military, a senior Administration official said Tuesday.

Thus, while the Administration publicly has justified U.S. activities off the coast of Libya strictly in terms of preserving legal rights of free passage in international waters, behind the scenes the air and sea exercises also were seen as possible elements in achieving Kadafi’s ultimate downfall.

So far, U.S. officials and outside experts agree, the conflict has posed no threat to Kadafi--and probably has strengthened his position in the short run by giving him a dramatic chance to defend Libyan interests against a superpower.

Weakened in Long Run

If the attacks and counterattacks escalate, however, they could weaken Kadafi’s grip on the North African nation in the long run, according to assessments by U.S. intelligence specialists.

“One of the main issues that was considered in planning the last few weeks of the naval challenge . . . was what effect it would have on the military,” said the official, who participated in the planning but refused to be quoted by name.

“The general assessment was that a very small skirmish would strengthen Kadafi, because it wouldn’t cost enough to do substantial damage, and he would benefit from a windfall of (Libyan) nationalism,” he said. “Something really major, that really hit at the core of the military apparatus . . . could undermine him . . . (like) hitting airfields and ships in port.

‘The Big Gray Area’

“We’re in the big gray area in between,” the official said. “The senior officers (in Libya) don’t like what’s going on . . . but the rank and file will rally around the flag.”

He said Kadafi appeared to have pulled back from confronting the U.S. Navy to limit his losses. “He’s a real expert at two steps forward, one step back,” he said. “He wants to live to fight another day. . . . But some day, he’s going to charge when he should have retreated.”

The reaction of the Libyan military is of key importance, several Administration officials said, because U.S. intelligence analysts believe that disgruntled officers pose the only immediate threat to Kadafi’s rule.

Opposition groups within the military have attempted to overthrow Kadafi several times in the past few years, without success. Kadafi has ruthlessly eliminated would-be foes in the officer corps whenever they have been discovered, including a distant cousin who was executed last year for objecting to a military reorganization plan, officials said.

‘They’re Intimidated’

As a result, the senior official said, “it’s taken them a long time to get organized. They’re intimidated.”

Still, he said, the Administration hopes that Libya’s naval defeat in the Gulf of Sidra this week will increase opposition sentiment within the military in the long run. “It probably will intensify their sentiment (against Kadafi) but postpone their planning,” he said.

“We don’t expect an early demise,” another official said. “But the military has always been an interesting question mark.”

Several outside experts, however, questioned whether the battles would weaken Kadafi, even in the long run.

“I’ve heard that thesis, that it will encourage the military to stage a coup, but I don’t buy it,” said G. Henry M. Schuler of Georgetown University’s Center for Strategic and International Studies. “I think it’s counterproductive.”

Creating a Dilemma

“This sort of confrontation has historically undermined the position of the opposition,” said Lisa Anderson of Harvard University’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies. “It creates a dilemma for Libyan patriots who don’t like Kadafi but who like being pushed around by the United States even less.”

She added that while the military can afford to lose military hardware, casualties among military personnel are more serious. “Libya is really a very small society,” she said. “When Kadafi sent the army into Uganda and they had 150 killed, it was a turning point. Within a fairly short time, he had to withdraw.”

Civilian opposition in Libya has been limited, Anderson said, both by extensive repression and by the elimination of all public gathering places: “There are no cafes, no movie houses, no sports events. There is no place where people can legitimately meet.”

Secret Police Network

P. Edward Haley, director of the Keck Center for Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif., added: “The controls are so extensive that no weakening of his position could occur among the population. They’ve got an intelligence and secret police net that would break up any attempt against Kadafi before it could get started.”

Only “a small, closely held conspiracy,” perhaps from among his closest aides, is likely to topple Kadafi, Haley said.

When Kadafi has been confronted by military challenges in Uganda and Chad, Haley said, he “has repeatedly shown himself able to go up right to the line of overcommitment and pull back.”

“We’re very much acting on the outside edges of Libyan policy,” he said. “We can create sanctions for certain kinds of behavior . . . but it’s difficult to influence the behavior of the elite.”

No Grand Plan

Administration officials agree, saying that they have no grand plan for engineering Kadafi’s overthrow.

“But some day he’s going to make a mistake,” one said. “There’s no telling how many plots he survives a year. . . . If you tighten the screw a little bit more and a little bit more, you never know when it’s going to be enough.”

Even then, warned Georgetown’s Schuler, the ultimate successor to Kadafi may not be to Washington’s liking.

“Whoever it is won’t be any less anti-American,” he said. “All the United States could conceivably hope for . . . is someone who’s less adventurous.”