PACKER: : The Cardinals Will Be Fresher; The Blue Devils Need a Big Game From Dawkins and Henderson

What Dallas and the rest of the nation will be treated to tonight at Reunion Arena is a matchup of two of the nation’s very best teams. Duke has the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 games, and Louisville has won its last 16.

We haven’t had this type of momentum in a final since Larry Bird’s Indiana State team went against Magic Johnson’s Michigan State team in 1979, in terms of two teams playing so well at this time of year.

The two coaches are very similar, low-key type guys and excellent teachers. They recruit for their system, instead of taking players and creating a system. Denny Crum of Louisville obviously has more Final Four experience, but Mike Krzyzewski learned a lot being an assistant under Bob Knight in the Final Four and being an assistant in the Pan American Games.

Both coaches have to look at how much their teams have left to give. Crum is in a much better situation because he has superior athletes and more of them. And Louisville didn’t have to play a game where it had to leave everything on the court. We’re only talking about one day’s rest, which is not a lot of time to turn a team around.

Even though Duke has been in a lot of vicious battles this season--winning the Big Apple NIT, a tough ACC regular-season race and the ACC tournament--it did get a little blow by going to the easier East Regional. Krzyzewski’s team has to be sore and tired after a bruising game against Kansas in the semifinals. Louisville, however, seems to be gaining momentum and would appear to be a much fresher team going into the game.

Both coaches will have to recognize that early in the game, especially Krzyzewski, who will have to decide what he can do to keep his men fresh. I wouldn’t expect either team to blow the other off the floor.

Duke has been very good at wearing teams down in the second half. Of course, that has been Louisville’s trademark, as well. The Cardinals keep running that press on, and for a while it seems like the passing lanes are getting wider. But you get a little careless, and before you know it--boom, they’re there, and they blow it open. That’s the way UCLA played it in winning all those national championships, and Crum got his tutoring from John Wooden.

One thing to remember, though, is that Louisville’s press probably will be negated some against Duke because Johnny Dawkins and Tommy Amaker are very good against pressure and Mark Alarie catches the ball very well for a big man.

As far as styles, both teams like to play man-to-man, and both like to be very aggressive. Louisville has bigger guards, and that may present a problem for Duke, particularly Amaker. I would guess Louisville would take Jeff Hall and post him up inside. The Cardinals also switch on defense all over the court, but they may run into difficulties with a guy such as Dawkins. I don’t think Louisville has a defensive player who can stay with Dawkins when he penetrates, especially if he gets a mismatch on a switch.

Dawkins, by the way, is not only capable of having a big game, he must have a big game if Duke is going to win. And considering what Louisville does, Dawkins may very well have that big game.

On the front line, the teams appear to be very evenly matched. Alarie matches well with Billy Thompson. Herbert Crook has some size on David Henderson, but Henderson has the quickness. You would have to give the edge to Pervis Ellison over Jay Bilas at center, since Ellison has quite a bit of size over Bilas.

The Thompson-Alarie matchup may pit two of the best all-around players at that position in the college game. Thompson has been outstanding throughout the tournament, and although Alarie may not have the same kind of stats, he showed in the Kansas game that defensively he can play against anybody.

Thompson is averaging four points more in the tournament than he did in the regular season, and Louisville is going to him on almost every key situation, and he has delivered. But I don’t think he has played against a defender as good as Alarie. The Cardinals can get points from other people, but if Thompson were clamped down, that would put a lot of pressure on Ellison, a freshman, and Crook.

If Thompson gets the upper hand and it turns out that Alarie did spend himself guarding Danny Manning on Saturday, Duke is in a lot of trouble. If that happens, Alarie is going to have to work so hard on that end, he won’t be able to get the points the Blue Devils will need on the other end.

The key for Duke is getting some scoring out of Henderson. He was their big-play man early in the year, particularly in December when he had several 20-point games. You wouldn’t expect him to turn it around that quickly from his 3-for-12 field-goal shooting against Kansas, but he must get his shot back to keep Louisville from doubling on Dawkins.

I’m picking Louisville because that’s the fresher team. Duke has had a tremendous chemical balance this season, but that balance would have to be absolutely perfect for the Blue Devils to win. Duke would have to have Dawkins be outstanding offensively and at the same time have Henderson come out of his slump. That’s asking an awful lot. A lot more things can go wrong for Louisville where it can still adjust.