Primary Loses Zip as Most Incumbents Decide to Stay Put

Just five months ago, there promised to be a major shake-up in Orange County’s Sacramento delegation, as several veteran legislators had sights set on higher office.

But when the jockeying was over, incumbents were seeking reelection in all but one of the eight 1986 legislative races. And the June 3 primary, with most races uncontested, is regarded as ho-hum.

County Republican Chairman Tom Fuentes, who amused local politicos last December with the comment that he was “wearing out the knees” of his pajamas praying for precisely that situation, complained last week that it had turned into “possibly the most boring primary cycle” in county history.

On the Republican side, the 72nd Assembly District is the only contested primary.

Real estate broker Richard E. (Dick) Longshore, with solid backing from GOP leaders both locally and in Sacramento, is a clear favorite over lesser known George V. Heaney of Santa Ana, a worker’s compensation representative. Although Heaney won nearly 43% of the votes in a two-way primary battle with Longshore in 1982, Republican leaders have no doubt that Longshore will emerge the victor.

Among Democrats, four state legislative primaries are contested. But in most of those, even the candidates admit that the eventual winners will be launching quixotic efforts against entrenched incumbents in areas where Republican voters outnumber Democrats by wide margins.

Riding Gov. George Deukmejian’s coattails and holding a countywide registration edge nearing 175,000, Republicans predicted that all seven GOP incumbents will easily win reelection. County Democratic leaders say, however, that they expect to hold their own and, perhaps, score some gains.

The Democrats predict that Santa Ana Mayor Dan Griset, who is unopposed in the primary, will defeat the Longshore-Heaney winner in November to keep a Democrat in the 72nd Assembly seat that six-term Assemblyman Richard Robinson of Garden Grove has abandoned in his bid for Congress.

Democratic Party leaders also say they are “excited about chances” that Mark Rosen, a 34-year-old Garden Grove attorney who has been running an aggressive door-to-door campaign since last November, will upset Republican Assemblywoman Doris Allen of Cypress.

And, both state and local Democratic strategists say they have at least a “long shot . . . a crap shoot” at winning the 32nd state Senate District, where Stanton City Councilman Sal Sapien and Orange County Board of Education member Francis Hoffman are vying to take on Republican Sen. Edward R. Royce of Anaheim in his first reelection bid.

Royce Abandons Plan

The Democrats concede their chances were lessened, however, when Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton) at the last minute pulled out of the U.S. Senate race, causing Royce to abandon his plan to run for Congress. If it had been an open Assembly seat, Democrats were planning a major campaign in the central and north Orange County district, “but the dominoes didn’t fall,” said one top-level Senate Democratic aide.

Although they see little chance of defeating either Republican Assemblymen Ross Johnson of Fullerton or John R. Lewis of Orange, local Democratic Party leaders have taken a keen interest in primary contests to challenge the incumbents because two followers of Lyndon LaRouche--Marion E. Hundley of Yorba Linda and Peter Dimopoulos of Fullerton--are candidates in those races.

Political parties are not allowed to make endorsements in primaries. But Orange County Democratic leaders are making it no secret they are pulling for Jo Marie Lisa, a Los Angeles aerospace industry manager challenging Dimopoulos for the right to face Johnson, and Orange businessman Ray Anderson, who is running against Hundley in Lewis’ heavily Republican district.

“In the case of LaRouche people, we come as close as possible” to endorsements, said county Democratic Chairman Bruce W. Sumner, who himself is a write-in candidate in the 40th Congressional District, where LaRouche follower Art Hoffmann is the unopposed Democratic candidate on the ballot.

Not ‘Real Democrats’

Sumner said he doesn’t consider followers of LaRouche, a Leesburg, Va., writer who is said to have backed several thousand candidates around the country--including two upset victors in statewide primaries in Illinois last month--to be “real Democrats.”

But the key state legislative race in Orange County, all agree, will be the 72nd district, which includes Stanton and portions of Santa Ana, Garden Grove and Anaheim.

At the end of last week, Republicans, who have made recent gains with an aggressive registration drive, had 38.8% of the district’s 99,000 registered voters, while 50.4% said they were Democrats.

“I think we’ll win it,” said Sumner, “and I also think we have a good chance with Rosen.”

Rosen is running in the 71st Assembly District, where Allen is seeking a third term. Allen defeated former Democratic Assemblyman Chester B. (Chet) Wray in 1982 in the blue-collar district, which includes Buena Park, Cypress, La Palma and Los Alamitos, as well as parts of Anaheim, Westminster and Garden Grove. Rosen gives himself “a 50-50 shot at it.”

In the adjacent 72nd District, the major Orange County political battleground for the Legislature, statewide strategists for both major parties have made the district “a target,” where they will concentrate major campaign efforts, and most likely, large sums of money.

Race in the 72nd

“I think the only race at all (in Orange County) is going to be the 72nd,” said William Saracino, head of the Assembly Office of Minority Services and a top political lieutenant of Assembly GOP Leader Pat Nolan of Glendale.

GOP leaders say this may be the best chance ever for Longshore, who has run twice before and who lost to veteran Robinson by only 256 votes in 1984. Fuentes said Robinson’s decision not to seek reelection should help Longshore.

Griset will be an easier target than Robinson, said Fuentes, because of “Robinson’s proven $1-million fund-raising ability.”

But Longshore says the candidate doesn’t make any difference. And, Saracino said Longshore’s secret to success will be “to run as though he is one vote behind.”

“We are going to be spending whatever it takes to win,” said Saracino, who added that Republicans will match Democratic campaign efforts should the party decide to target other Orange County races.

But Saracino said he does not expect his Democratic foes to foolishly dilute their efforts by spending lots of money on several races.

Griset Race a Priority

“Everybody else (GOP incumbents) are just as safe as they can be,” Saracino said.

But Richard Ross, on leave from his job as Democratic Assembly Speaker Willie Brown’s chief of staff to work full time in political races, said state Democratic leaders have not ruled out an all-out effort on behalf of Rosen. But the Griset race is clearly the top priority, he added.

Ross said Rosen, who only became active in local politics in 1983 and 1984 when he campaigned for Santa Ana School District Trustee Sadie Reid and for Colorado Sen. Gary Hart in his presidential bid, has attracted more attention and excitement than any political newcomer he can remember.

“I wish I could bottle what he’s got,” Ross said. “We’ve been lobbied very, very hard by local people in Orange County. What we are doing in response to the total local commitment to this guy is looking real hard at the district, looking at Assemblywoman Allen’s record, looking at it every way except sideways.”

Democratic strategists also toyed with the idea of targeting the 69th Assembly District, where Assemblyman Nolan Frizzelle of Huntington Beach is seeking a fourth term. But Ross admitted this week the idea had been abandoned because Frizzelle’s published views defending the apartheid system in South Africa had not created as much local outrage as Democratic strategists had suspected, and because of “the atrocious (registration) numbers.”

Republicans have nearly a 33,000-voter registration edge in Frizzelle’s district, which includes Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach and portions of seven other cities.

A Bow to Priorities

Still, Democratic candidate Jack Baldwin, a 37-year-old Irvine computer retailer and motivational speaker, said Frizzelle, 64, is potentially vulnerable and he has “a definite shot” at upsetting him. Baldwin said he does not quarrel, however, with the Democratic strategy that has made Griset’s and Rosen’s races higher priorities.

“If there was a lot of money available” for a second all-out effort in Orange County, besides the race for Robinson’s seat, “I’d prefer that money go to Mark (Rosen). . . . I’d say he has a lot better chance than I do.”

In the 70th Assembly District, where Republicans enjoy a better than two to one registration edge--their best in the state--Assemblyman Gil Ferguson is expected to easily stave off the challenge of attorney Geoffrey S. Gray, who is unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Likewise, 58th District Assemblyman Dennis Brown of Signal Hill, who represents adjoining coastal areas of Orange and Los Angeles counties, was expecting little trouble from three Democratic challengers--Andrew Kincaid, a Long Beach real estate broker, Peggy Staggs, a community college instructor from Huntington Beach, and Los Angeles Port Administrator Michael O. Ferrall of Long Beach, who was once a state assemblyman in Wisconsin.

As of mid-March, Brown, seeking a fifth term, had a campaign war chest of $170,155, the fifth highest total of 225 Assembly candidates in the state, according to the state Fair Political Practices Commission. Ferrall, Staggs, and Kincaid combined had $100.