Talking Up War

Militant rhetoric has a way of becoming bellicose reality in international affairs when one side or the other begins to believe what it is saying or hearing. That’s the danger that now hangs over relations between Syria and Israel. No one has suggested that a new war between the two old adversaries is imminent. But ominous-sounding statements from both Damascus and Jerusalem and accompanying military movements have raised American concerns that something might be started that both sides would have reason to regret.

President Hafez Assad recently made a tough speech about using military force to regain the Golan Heights, lost by Syria in its 1967 war with Israel. At the same time Assad has moved Syria’s forces in Lebanon forward, putting them within artillery range of northern Israel. Meanwhile, evidence has appeared linking Syria to recent terrorist incidents in both Britain and West Germany, including the attempted bombing of an El Al Israeli airliner in London.

Israel’s customary response to terrorism is to send its war planes to bomb suspected terrorist bases. This possibility, in the present climate, has left the Reagan Administration concerned, and also showing signs of internal confusion. Thus while one high official says there’s no reason to doubt Syrian involvement in the El Al case, others caution that it’s too early to pass firm judgment. The message to Israel seems to be that it’s all right to be upset, but please don’t do anything about it.

If doing something means risking a major conflict then Israel, still feeling the wounds brought by its enormously costly misadventure in Lebanon, probably will avoid action. Neither does it seem likely that Syria is eager to pit its newly built-up up armed forces against Israel, since almost certainly it would again find itself the loser in any confrontation. The best explanation for what’s been going on may be that Assad, largely isolated in the Arab world because of Syria’s support for non-Arab Iran in its war against Iraq and beset at home by a collapsing economy and political rivalries within his regime, is trying to gain standing by a show of toughness against Israel. It’s an old gambit, but the longer such posturing goes on the greater the danger that it could get out of hand.