Iraq-Syria Rift May Be Near End : Jordan Mediating; Result Could Leave Iran, Libya Isolated

A series of mediation missions by Jordan appears close to healing a six-year rift between Iraq and Syria, according to Western diplomats and Jordanian officials.

Diplomatic analysts believe that a reconciliation between the two countries may result in a profound realignment in Middle East alliances as Syria moves gradually away from its friendship with Iran, which has been locked in a war with Iraq since September, 1980.

Among other things, the rapprochement would leave Iran and Libya, Syria’s one-time allies, even more isolated at a time when the Reagan Administration has been mounting a campaign against the three nations for their alleged role in supporting terrorism.

“There is a progressive shift in power taking place,” noted one diplomat.

Visit by Syria’s Assad

The reconciliation efforts apparently began with a visit by President Hafez Assad of Syria to Jordan on May 5. Since that time, King Hussein of Jordan has twice visited the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, and he flew to the Syrian capital last weekend.

On Tuesday night, Jordanian Prime Minister Zaid Rifai flew to Athens, where President Assad has been making a state visit, carrying the latest Iraqi response to the peace initiative. The two men met, but details of their talks were not publicized.

Rifai left Tuesday night after the meeting and Assad left Wednesday, having ended his first state visit to a Western country in eight years.

According to Jordanian officials, King Hussein has been trying to arrange the convening of an Arab summit meeting, which would be the first top-level conference since September, 1982. In the past, Syria has always been opposed to the meeting.

Main Points of Agenda

The officials said that Syria has now agreed to the holding of a conference of heads of state, and Rifai’s visit to Athens has advanced the process to the stage where the two sides were discussing the main points of an agenda and the draft of a resolution on the Iran-Iraq War.

Saudi Arabia, which has been scheduled to host the next Arab summit, has been quietly promoting the Iraqi-Syrian reconciliation with diplomacy and with its checkbook, according to diplomats in the region. An effort by Jordan to reconcile Syria and Egypt, also supported by Saudi Arabia, has failed, according to Jordanian officials.

Iraq and Syria are ostensibly ruled by different wings of the Arab Baath Socialist Party, but regional rivalries have largely kept the two countries at odds for decades.

Assad’s relations with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein began to sour in 1979, when the Iraqis announced the discovery of a plot to overthrow the government. Ties collapsed when Assad announced support for Iran after the outbreak of war in 1980. At the time, Syria closed the Iraqi pipeline that carried Iraq’s oil production through Syria to the Mediterranean. Iran began supplying Syria with oil.

In the past, diplomats believed that Baghdad was willing to patch up its relations with Damascus, but Syria had always refused to consider a reconciliation.

“What’s changed,” said one diplomat, “is Syria has a lot of problems. They may be feeling a little lonely in the region.”

Diplomats said the reasons behind changes in Syria’s attitude include:

--A new situation at the front in the Iran-Iraq War. After more than five years of warfare, Iran has succeeded in occupying a swath of Iraqi territory. Syria has been on record since 1982 as opposing any occupation of “Arab territory” in the war. Iraq is an Arab nation. Iran, although Muslim, is not.

--Iran has cut off most oil shipments to Syria because the Damascus regime cannot afford to pay its bills, now estimated at more than $2 billion.

--Syria’s economy is in a dire predicament, and an expansion of Saudi economic aid, which a Syrian official estimated at $600 million a year currently, is needed more than ever.

Diplomats said another factor that could heavily influence Assad is the feeling that Syria is increasingly drifting away from the Arab world mainstream. Since Assad has pretensions of being the preeminent Arab statesman, he may feel that now is the time to close Arab ranks, they said.

There is speculation that Assad and Saddam Hussein may hold a meeting before any Arab summit to cement their reconciliation, although Jordanian officials said first priority is being placed on arranging the summit.

There is also some talk about Syria reopening the Iraqi pipeline in exchange for taking some of the oil that flows through it. A complication in this plan may be that the Syrians have plans to use the pipeline themselves to carry their own oil--recently discovered at Deir al Zour in the east--to the Mediterranean.