Joins Battle With Cranston : Zschau Basks in Role of Winner

Republican U. S. Senate candidate Ed Zschau basked Wednesday in an extraordinary political success story. Six months ago he was virtually unknown in California and had a name that few could even pronounce.

Suddenly, the Los Altos congressman is in the national spotlight after taking the GOP Senate nomination with a campaign that ran strong statewide and disproved the wisdom that a Northern Californian cannot defeat an opponent who is much better known in the vote-rich south.

He also confounded experts who said that more conservative candidates do best when the voter turnout is low. On Tuesday, only 39.7% of the state’s 12 million registered voters went to the polls, the lowest recorded turnout in more than half a century.

The Republicans gave Zschau 37% of the vote in a crowded field. His closest rival, with 30%, was commentator Bruce Herschensohn, whose eloquence on the stump helped him capitalize on the name recognition that he gained in eight years on television in the huge Los Angeles media market.

Fight for the Center

Zschau’s fiscal conservatism and social moderation could enable him to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston for the all-important center of the California electorate, giving the Republicans a chance to pick up a seat in their battle to maintain control of the Senate.

Because of that, neither side wasted even a day before joining the battle. Cranston was on the attack within hours with a television commercial that accused Zschau of being weak on the cleanup of toxic waste and of being inconsistent in general.

Zschau is expected to come right back with his own commercials this week, some of which will sound the theme that he covered in his Wednesday press conference in Los Angeles.

“In this campaign Californians will be given a clear choice about the key issue. That issue is who can best provide the leadership for a better future and more opportunity for not only Californians but all Americans,” Zschau said.

“I put my confidence in the power of the free enterprise system and the entrepreneurial spirit to create jobs and opportunities,” continued Zschau, who founded a highly successful high-tech company before going to the House of Representatives in 1982.

“While I have been creating jobs, Alan Cranston has been creating more government,” Zschau charged. “He practices the politics of the past while I provide a vision for the future.”

It is on this plane of future versus past that Zschau wants the election to be fought. The 46-year-old congressman was depicted in his primary campaign television commercials as a dynamic young man with a lovely family and a varied background that he believes qualifies him to help the state cope with “a time of enormous change in our country.”

Not surprisingly, the 71-year-old Cranston plans to put a different twist on the future-past motif.

The bulk of his television ads, which ran briefly several weeks ago and started again Wednesday, depict him as a hard-working pro whose 18 years of representing California--and current position as the No. 2 Democratic leader in the Senate--give his constituents a steady rock in a time of rapid change.

Even Zschau says he believes Cranston has been effective.

“Cranston has been responsive to his constituency, and his staff has been effective,” Zschau said in an interview. “But I have demonstrated effectiveness in Congress as well, and I think I offer something else: I have a record of accomplishment in the private sector.”

Cranston was not so charitable toward Zschau in a Wednesday telephone interview from his Washington office.

“The basic issue is that someone should stick to basic principles,” said Cranston, alluding to the charge by some of Zschau’s GOP primary opponents that he was too inconsistent in his House votes. Zschau says he sometimes changes votes when the legislation is revised to eliminate the problems that he had with it.

But Cranston charged: “You are either for aid to the contras , or you’re against it. There has been no major change in that legislation.”

Cranston was referring to Zschau’s sudden shift this year from his consistent opposition to arming the contras fighting the Nicaraguan government.

Although Zschau argued persuasively that his change of heart was based on increased Soviet influence in Nicaragua, he acknowledged during the primary that his initial opposition to President Reagan’s request for arms would leave his right flank unprotected in a party where hard-line anti-communism and support for Reagan are still considered important--if not as important as some of Zschau’s GOP rivals thought.

Cranston has long opposed military aid to the contras, warning, among other things, that it could further escalate the conflict in Central America and eventually lead to the involvement of U.S. troops.

As for Zschau’s contention that he is the kind of Republican moderate who can challenge Cranston for the center, the senator retorted Wednesday:

“There is some question about who Ed Zschau really is. He seemed to be moderate when he was in the House, but when he decided to run for the Senate, he flip-flopped on some issues--not just the contras. . . . On the environment, he says he’s for it but voted against the Superfund and the Clean Water Act.”

That was the substance of Cranston’s negative television commercial on Zschau, which will begin running in much of California today.

The ad charges that Zschau “voted against tough laws to clean up toxic wastes.” Supporting materials handed out by the Cranston campaign cite Zschau’s votes against increased funding for toxic waste control and expanding opportunities for private citizens to take on polluters.

Zschau, touting his tight-fisted approach to the budget, says he is for a $7-billion Superfund--less than Cranston wants.

He added at his press conference: “I felt that Superfund legislation had a very specific objective and that was to clean up toxic spills. . . . But some of those amendments would actually have allocated Superfund monies to compensate victims, and I say that is counterproductive.”

At the press conference, Zschau repeatedly said he had been a leader in tackling the toxic waste problem. But when asked to give examples, he listed only his participation in various meetings, including a 1985 conference at Stanford University.

Interestingly, the Los Angeles Times exit poll found that Zschau did better than any of his GOP rivals among voters who felt that toxic waste is the most pressing issue of the day.

“There will be some distortions; there will be false advertising,” Zschau added. “I’ve been told that Sen. Cranston runs pretty tough campaigns.”

Indeed, Cranston, who has beaten three ultraconservative opponents in the past, acknowledged that Zschau represents his greatest challenge, in part because the former entrepreneur has become a favorite of the business community, many of whose members have supported Cranston in the past.

Zschau was endorsed by many of California’s corporate captains, from Philip M. Hawley and Donald Bren in the south to David Packard and Alden Yates in the north. They, along with such venture capitalists as B. Kipling Hagopian of Los Angeles, helped Zschau raise nearly $3 million for his primary win.

“This means he will have a lot of money, and I will have to raise a lot more money,” Cranston said. “But I will soon announce a list of my own business supporters.”

Zschau also has moderate positions on abortion and equal rights that are identical to Cranston’s and appeal to the bulk of the California electorate, according to polls.

But the senator added: “I welcome the opportunity to show that I don’t need right-wing opponents in order to win.”

Both the Los Angeles Times Poll and the California Poll found in mid-May that Zschau had become the toughest potential opponent for Cranston, although the senator still won in theoretical match-ups.

Zschau won the GOP nomination by handily beating Herschensohn in most of the 48 counties outside Southern California and by doing decently well in Los Angeles and Orange counties, an area dominated by Herschensohn and such well-known southerners as state Sen. Ed Davis of Valencia, Northridge Rep. Bobbi Fiedler and Los Angeles County Supervisor Mike Antonovich.

Los Angeles Times exit polls found that Zschau did surprisingly well with older voters, actually winning those over 65 by a 13-point margin. In a Republican primary, those voters are normally expected to side more with strong conservatives like Herschensohn.

The poll also found that conservatives were split about down the middle between Zschau and Herschensohn. Republicans classifying themselves as moderates or liberals went for Zschau 2 to 1.

The single strongest reason for voting for Zschau, the poll found, was his image as a winner--someone who could beat Cranston. His experience and leadership qualities also endeared him to GOP voters.

Zschau’s weakest points were his stands on issues, indicating that criticism of his mixed record of liberal, moderate and conservative votes on issues had some effect.

His rock-solid base was Northern California, where he overwhelmed Herschensohn with 50% of the vote to Herschensohn’s 9%.

Herschensohn dominated in the south, but not by as large a margin--41% to 27% for Zschau.

In a strategic blunder, the Herschensohn campaign never made a major effort for the northern vote. One Herschensohn campaign source said it had hoped Antonovich would pull out near the end, encouraging his southern conservative support to swing behind Herschensohn. But Antonovich, a former state GOP chairman, stayed in to the end, attacking Herschensohn and Zschau and finishing with 9% of the vote.

It was Zschau’s heavy use of television ads that enabled him to do what none of the others could do--mount a statewide campaign. Among other things, the ads emphasized Zschau’s support for a moratorium on offshore drilling, and campaign manager Ron Smith believes that that helped Zschau run strong in a key county, San Diego.

That was the only southern county Zschau won, but he did it handily, getting 40% of the vote to Herschensohn’s 19%. That helped offset the results in Los Angeles, where Herschensohn beat Zschau 49% to 20%, and in Orange County, where the commentator got 55% to Zschau’s 22%.

“We knew the environmental issue would be very appealing all along the coast in Southern California,” Smith said, “but it was especially geared to San Diego. We picked up an audience that is economically conservative and moderate on environmental issues.”

Zschau also racked up crucial gains in the San Joaquin Valley. Early on he signed up two wily, home-grown political consultants, John Hix and Lynn Joyner of Fresno, who helped him get out a message that carried the eight valley counties with an average of 43.9% of the vote.

“People in agriculture have a lot of problems, and Ed Zschau convinced them that he is a problem solver, that’s his background,” Hix said.

But fittingly it was in his home base of the San Francisco Peninsula and Silicon Valley that Zschau was the overwhelming choice. He got 70% of the vote in San Francisco County, 71% in Santa Clara and 58% in San Mateo.

It was there that Zschau first got the idea from high-tech businessmen and venture capitalists that he might be able to take the Senate nomination despite his lack of name recognition statewide.

Real estate developer Tom Ford raised $100,000 in one day just walking around a high-tech industrial park, many of whose tenants knew Zschau from his days as a lobbyist for lower capital gains taxes in the 1970s. Ironically, it was Cranston who played a key role in the Senate to help Zschau and others reduce the capital gains rate.

The success of that effort led Zschau into politics. He ran for the House of Representatives and won in 1982.

Early on, Zschau, former president of the company that he founded, System Industries, laid out the campaign strategy like a chief executive officer. No detail was left to chance, from raising the initial $1 million from high-tech sources, to spending enough on television in February and March to move up in the polls and impress business leaders in Southern California. They in turn joined the campaign and raised more for the expensive television ads.

Zschau pulled in many people new to politics, charming audiences with his message about the entrepreneurial spirit and with his campaign song, whose key line is, “They’ll be dancin’ when I’ve beaten Alan Cranston.”

Contributing to this article was Times staff writer Cathleen Decker.

SENATE VOTE BY COUNTY

Mike Ed Bobbi Bruce Art County Antonovich Davis Fiedler Herschensohn Laffer Alameda 2,307 3,069 1,875 5,329 1,4800 Alpine 11 38 12 17 8 Amador 304 208 398 322 85 Butte 777 907 1,039 871 205 Calaveras 408 241 514 228 113 Colusa 139 146 194 103 28 Contra Costa 2,125 2,485 2,244 5,271 1,534 Del Norte 193 304 106 252 41 El Dorado 1,108 857 1,264 1,203 348 Fresno 4,346 3,761 2,761 2,679 950 Glenn 267 314 296 269 49 Humboldt 1,228 1,325 586 1,193 231 Imperial 513 970 371 1,759 108 Inyo 217 336 196 1,216 53 Kern 6,479 4,369 3,207 8,173 1,294 Kings 606 650 326 271 93 Lake 348 399 449 347 169 Lassen 248 432 164 143 54 Los Angeles 64,465 24,749 38,853 236,148 8,381 Madera 540 574 460 506 170 Marin 1,067 910 647 1,678 1,195 Mariposa 159 245 186 247 69 Mendocino 231 690 251 529 199 Merced 486 526 435 565 184 Modoc 133 275 129 120 47 Mono 191 178 111 167 53 Monterey 1,336 1,533 739 1,642 834 Napa 451 802 522 795 390 Nevada 1,040 518 753 1,253 181 Orange 17,846 9,249 11,673 121,366 4,677 Placer 1,596 1,052 1,484 1,633 411 Plumas 148 248 157 220 57 Riverside 5,439 5,021 5,175 32,227 1,155 Sacramento 6,803 4,896 7,093 10,140 1,834 San Benito 239 172 131 306 70 San Bernardino 5,272 5,626 5,487 37,543 1,244 San Diego 16,885 19,597 17,318 35,643 6,588 San Francisco 990 956 643 1,710 660 San Joaquin 2,235 2,149 3,827 2,055 491 San Luis Obispo 2,919 2,319 933 4,634 435 San Mateo 1,080 1,168 890 3,050 1,170 Santa Barbara 3,747 3,398 2,527 7,969 1,454 Santa Clara 3,388 2,794 1,959 8,743 2,375 Santa Cruz 778 910 276 1,714 279 Shasta 1,306 1,742 1,428 1,415 410 Sierra 72 39 40 30 11 Siskiyou 527 815 406 418 136 Solano 952 1,113 911 1,398 501 Sonoma 1,586 1,609 969 2,265 1,025 Stanislaus 834 1,196 1,173 1,344 216 Sutter 318 392 675 646 158 Tehama 523 772 571 471 122 Trinity 208 249 247 193 53 Tulare 2,419 2,720 1,718 1,589 536 Tuolumne 307 308 575 379 182 Ventura 4,674 3,962 10,822 21,958 875 Yolo 789 663 997 813 274 Yuba 235 284 347 353 84

Robert Ed County Naylor Zschau Alameda 2,736 42,001 Alpine 7 35 Amador 131 1,386 Butte 796 4,337 Calaveras 176 1,591 Colusa 239 820 Contra Costa 3,166 40,599 Del Norte 131 574 El Dorado 410 4,392 Fresno 1,020 18,015 Glenn 187 1,066 Humboldt 952 3,262 Imperial 265 1,194 Inyo 30 510 Kern 818 9,261 Kings 135 2,260 Lake 159 2,351 Lassen 168 406 Los Angeles 3,065 97,001 Madera 145 2,451 Marin 698 14,510 Mariposa 59 815 Mendocino 489 3,339 Merced 141 3,498 Modoc 123 277 Mono 32 67 Monterey 1,669 10,835 Napa 547 6,470 Nevada 775 4,840 Orange 1,636 49,369 Placer 678 5,994 Plumas 58 727 Riverside 1,281 17,155 Sacramento 2,745 37,848 San Benito 151 1,269 San Bernardino 780 16,530 San Diego 5,390 75,856 San Francisco 1,222 18,953 San Joaquin 1,436 12,854 San Luis Obispo 1,043 5,644 San Mateo 10,560 29,495 Santa Barbara 826 9,731 Santa Clara 4,395 68,289 Santa Cruz 1,014 12,324 Shasta 627 4,438 Sierra 68 224 Siskiyou 398 1,142 Solano 719 9,072 Sonoma 1,223 18,741 Stanislaus 827 10,926 Sutter 571 2,197 Tehama 307 1,663 Trinity 152 447 Tulare 540 7,441 Tuolumne 165 2,448 Ventura 340 12,353 Yolo 408 5,518 Yuba 420 1,506