Hard Issues Await as Reagan, Congress Return to Work

Morning fog dulled even the sparkling coastline of Santa Barbara last week, but it was not unusual for White House spokesman Larry Speakes to remark that up at President Reagan’s mountainside ranch, the weather was sunny and warm.

The President, it seemed, was above the clouds as he tended to his ranch chores or rode the trails on horseback.

But today, after three weeks at his “Rancho del Cielo” nearly 30 miles northwest of Santa Barbara in the Santa Ynez Mountains, the President is returning to Washington, descending from the clear skies and easy pace of his ranch life into what even his allies anticipate will be a particularly contentious, and possibly crucial, two months that, along with the outcome of November’s congressional elections, could go a long way toward determining the success of his final two years in office.

Rush to Adjourn

As Reagan returns to Washington from his late summer vacation, so will members of the House and Senate, for what is likely to be a rough-and-tumble rush toward an early October, pre-election adjournment.

And therein lies the problem for Reagan and his aides, as they face politically difficult battles over their policies on defense, South Africa and trade, among other issues.

“The end of each session is chaos,” said a veteran Republican lobbyist. “You have to be on a defensive mode. You have to be able to dodge the bullets.”

The Reagan White House in its sixth year--and under the management of an almost entirely new staff after its first term--has shown little willingness to compromise and is unable to follow this advice, said the lobbyist, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Array of Issues

And in the bruising and brief congressional session getting under way this week, the President will be facing a wide array of sensitive issues--some of which could have an impact on Republican candidates as their party seeks to hold its control of the Senate.

For their part, Democrats are hoping that the coming weeks may be so crowded with problems that the President and his aides will be forced into politically costly mistakes.

“The more pressure you put on the White House now, the more the facade of a well-run White House begins to crack a bit,” said a Democratic Senate staff aide--a veteran of the Jimmy Carter White House who admitted to feelings of awe over Reagan’s effectiveness in dealing with Congress during his first term.

In addition, said the Republican lobbyist, the coming weeks offer the Democrats a chance to “set a record for the election and begin setting the stage for 1988.”

Defense, Trade Deficit

Back in Washington, Reagan’s agenda will be dictated more by Congress than by his own choice. It will include, among other issues, the defense authorization bill, economic sanctions imposed on South Africa and the trade deficit--all hotly contested issues that bring with them highly emotional debate.

The House version of the defense bill for fiscal 1987 would give Reagan $285 billion for military programs, and the Senate bill authorizes defense spending of $301 billion--each considerably less than Reagan’s request last winter for $320 billion.

The House measure also orders the President to comply with the terms of the unratified 1979 U.S.-Soviet treaty limiting the superpowers’ long-range nuclear weapons, and orders Reagan to adhere to a nuclear test moratorium--two arms control measures to which the White House vehemently objects.

The fight over the defense bill “is going to be a major crunch” for the President, a Democratic congressional aide said.

Apartheid Confrontation

Reagan’s decision to continue for a second year the relatively limited economic sanctions imposed on South Africa to pressure the white-minority government there into relaxing the policy of racial separation known as apartheid was announced while he was at the ranch. That decision probably set up a confrontation with the House and Senate, which have approved two bills ordering much tougher sanctions.

A senior White House official said Reagan is likely to veto any measure pushing him to apply greater pressure on South Africa, and the Senate Democratic aide said:

“The whole issue of sanctions will weigh on him. People don’t see South Africa as that big an issue. It is not a positive issue, but it can be a negative. A veto could backfire on some Republicans in some races.”

The trade deficit, which produces an impact felt in political districts made up of farmers as well as factory workers, and on consumers throughout the economy, reached $24.6 billion in the second quarter. The nation’s persistent trade woes have been linked to the feeble 0.6% rate of growth in the nation’s economy during the same period from April through June.

Pressure on Imports

This has led Reagan’s Republican allies to put increasing political pressure on the President to back measures limiting imports--a step to which he has long been philosophically opposed.

“His own agenda for the fall may be at odds with what the 22 Republican incumbents want. They may have a different idea than the President on what they need to focus on,” the Senate aide said. He said Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R-Kan.), for political reasons, “needs to have the Republican Senate do something about trade,” while avoiding the risk of a politically damaging presidential veto of legislation intended to limit imports and protect American jobs.

Such differences may arise as Reagan undertakes a heavy political campaign schedule marked by weekly journeys on behalf of Republican candidates, such as a visit he made to a fund-raising dinner for Senate candidate Ed Zschau on Sunday evening in Los Angeles and a similar stop in Denver today on behalf of Rep. Ken Kramer, the Republican Senate candidate in Colorado.

Tax Revision Effect

The President’s effectiveness on such trips probably will be increased by final passage of the sweeping revision of the nation’s income tax laws that Reagan has strongly backed--as have congressional Democrats and Republicans.

Similarly, a second summit conference of the President and Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev could help give a positive tone to the public image of Reagan’s conduct of international affairs, further adding to his clout with Congress despite his lame-duck status.

The state of U.S.-Soviet relations has been clouded by the detention in Moscow of American reporter Nicholas Daniloff, who has been charged with espionage, according to Soviet television. However, Reagan Administration officials have indicated that they do not want the incident to damage the chances for a meeting with Gorbachev.