The Key to AL Series Likely to Be Condition of Clemens’ Sore Elbow

Will Roger Clemens be able to pitch?

He says yes. And if that’s so, the Boston Red Sox match up well with the California Angels in a pitching-rich American League Championship Series. Without him, they’re in a lot of trouble.

Clemens, hit in the right elbow by a line drive during a tuneup start last Wednesday night, went 3-0 against the Angels this season. California won seven of 12 overall, and half the time a team was held to one run or less.

Game 1 will be Tuesday night in Boston--where they split six games--and it may not be definitely known until then what to expect from Clemens, who led the league with a 24-4 record, a 2.48 earned run average and 238 strikeouts.

“I’m not even thinking of changing our pitching plans at this time,” Red Sox Manager John McNamara said hours after the injury.

California Manager Gene Mauch and the Angels are looking to change their postseason luck. Neither Mauch, in his 25th year of managing, nor the Angels, in their 26th year of existence, have ever reached the World Series.

“I guess people are going to talk about that a lot,” Mauch said. His 1964 Philadelphia team collapsed and his 1982 California club fell apart in the playoffs.

If Mauch’s team loses this best-of-seven series, he’ll hear plenty more. So will Boston, which has not won a World Series since 1918.

The Red Sox hit for a higher average, but California hits more home runs and is much faster. The Angels outscored Boston 57-41 in head-to-head games, although Mauch has always liked playing for one run at a time and his teams, such as this version, usually lead the league in sacrifice bunts.

The matchups:

CATCHER

Rich Gedman of the Red Sox is the better hitter, about 30 points in average and a lot more power. Bob Boone of the Angels is better defensively.

Boston, which stole the fewest bases in the majors this season, stole none against Boone and the Angels; California swiped five against the Red Sox. In other words, Boston’s glaring weakness--a lack of speed--works in reverse to cancel Boone’s primary strength.

Give the edge to Gedman.

FIRST BASE

Rookie Wally Joyner gave the Angels the power at first base they never had with Rod Carew. Joyner and Boston veteran Bill Buckner each hit about 20 home runs with 100 RBIs, although Joyner’s average was slightly higher.

The biggest difference between them is defensive. Joyner’s legs are younger and he covers a lot more ground than the 36-year-old Buckner.

The edge to Joyner.

SECOND BASE

Marty Barrett does a lot of good things for Boston. He hits around .290 and has nearly 40 doubles. He also tends a neat second base. Still, he gets overshadowed on the Red Sox.

Bobby Grich, at age 37, has not gotten as much playing time as in the past. His .275 average is up, his 30 RBIs are down. People like to talk about how veterans help in the postseason, but Grich is batting only .172 in four previous playoff series.

An edge to Barrett.

SHORTSTOP

Dick Schofield, like his major league father, is not eye-poppingly exciting. But, he bats .250 with 13 home runs and helps the Angels turn a lot of double plays.

Spike (his real first name) Owen got a second life when he was traded from Seattle to Boston in time to be eligible for the playoffs. He is a fine fielder, a poor-to-mediocre hitter.

The edge to Schofield.

THIRD BASE

Wade Boggs of the Red Sox is leading the major leagues with a nearly .360 average, and 100-plus walks boost his on-base average to over .450. Years of taking 100 practice grounders before each game have turned him from a below-average fielder into a pretty good one.

Doug DeCinces of the Angels has hit 25 homers and is approaching 100 RBIs. His range is not what it was 10 years ago. He has been in two playoffs series, and hit over .300 in both of them.

The edge to Boggs.

LEFT FIELD

Jim Rice is having an MVP-type year for the Red Sox. He is batting .322 with 20 homers and 108 RBIs, and his experience in playing balls off the Green Monster helps.

Brian Downing has hit 20 home runs with more than 90 RBIs, along with nearly 90 walks. An average fielder.

A solid edge to Rice.

CENTER FIELD

The Angels’ Gary Pettis is among the best defensive players in the majors at his position. He hits .260 and leads the team with 47 stolen bases.

Boston’s Tony Armas enjoyed a slight resurgence in the second half of the season and wound up hitting over .260 with almost 60 RBIs.

Different strengths make them even.

RIGHT FIELD

Dwight Evans hit 26 home runs with nearly 100 RBIs. He also drew 90 walks, a valuable skill when hitting high in the Boston lineup. His defensive skills have always been among the best.

George Hendrick, who batted barely over .200 with four home runs as a 35-year-old last season, has done swell for the Angels in 1986. He hit .274 with 14 homers and 47 RBIs while platooning with left-handed Ruppert Jones, who hit only .229 but had 16 home runs.

Evans gets the edge.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Well, can Reggie do it again? Jackson, melancholy since the Angels told him he will not be re-signed for next year, is hitting .245 with 18 homers--three against Boston--and 58 RBIs, plus 90 walks. He is known as Mr. October, even though is career average for 10 playoff series is only .234. It’s in the World Series where he shines, with a .357 mark that includes 10 homers.

Don Baylor hit 31 home runs with 92 RBIs for the Red Sox. Baylor starred for the Angels in their 1982 AL playoff loss to Milwaukee, driving in 10 runs during five games.

Which Reggie will show up? Call it even for now.

PITCHING

The Angels led the league in pitching. The Red Sox finished third, but doing it in Fenway Park half the time makes their numbers more impressive.

Clemens is the key. If he is healthy, Boston’s penciled-in starters--Clemens, Bruce Hurst and Oil Can Boyd--match up well with the Angels’ Mike Witt, Kirk McCaskill, John Candelaria and Don Sutton.

Donnie Moore is the Angels’ veteran stopper. The right-hander has a 2.75 earned run average and left-handed short man Gary Lucas is at 2.98.

Calvin Schiraldi, promoted from the minors in midseason after overcoming arm problems, is Boston’s hot man in the clutch--a 1.31 ERA in 23 games. Bob Stanley has done better than his 6-6 record and 4.48 ERA might indicate.

With Clemens healthy, the Boston pitchers may rate a slight edge. Without him, the Red Sox are hurting.