Aims to Build Two-Party System : GOP Seeks to Capitalize on Dixie Electoral Gains

By DAVID TREADWELL

Oct. 9, 1986 12 AM PT

Times Staff Writer

ATLANTA —

During his campaign appearance here Wednesday on behalf of incumbent Republican Sen. Mack Mattingly, President Reagan stressed the importance of a Mattingly victory to the GOP’s hopes for retaining control of the U.S. Senate.

But Republicans in the South see Mattingly’s race, and other Senate and gubernatorial contests in the region, in another framework that is equally as important.

Winning such races at the top of state tickets, they say, is crucial to the GOP’s bottom-line ambition of building a true two-party system below the Mason-Dixon Line. Alabama Sen. Jeremiah Denton’s political coup in 1980, for example, in which he became the first Republican elected to a statewide office here since Reconstruction, sparked a revitalization of the state party apparatus and served as a powerful rallying point to attract new voters.

White Southerners increasingly identify with the GOP. In 1984, when Reagan swept the South in his reelection triumph, almost as many white Southerners considered themselves Republicans as those who considered themselves Democrats, according to a University of Michigan study.

But Democrats still dominate state and local politics in Dixie. Unless the GOP can solidify its gains by reelecting Mattingly, Denton and others, the party’s hopes for a genuine political realignment in the region could suffer a major setback.

“We built our initial grass-roots scene upon Denton’s election six years ago,” said Marty Connors, executive director of the Alabama Republican Party. “Returning him to office is the most important thing we have to do in 1986.”

This fall, there are seven Senate seats and an equal number of governorships up for grabs among the 11 states of the Old Confederacy. Republicans now hold four of the Senate seats: Denton, Mattingly, Paula Hawkins of Florida, and James T. Broyhill of North Carolina, all seeking reelection. Among the gubernatorial slots, the only incumbent Republican is two-term Gov. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who cannot succeed himself for a third consecutive term.

And, propelled by their belief in the “top-down” strategy of party building, Republicans are sparing no effort--and virtually no expense--in those contests. In Georgia and Alabama alone, Republicans are expected to spend a total of $6.5 million to retain the Senate seats, twice as much as Democrats are estimated to expend.

“A lot of people say you’ve got to build a party from the grass-roots up--and you do,” said James M. Henry, state GOP chairman in Tennessee. “But unless you’ve got those statewide figures at the top--the Howard Bakers, the Mack Mattinglys, the Jeremiah Dentons--it’s difficult for the people at the bottom.

“They can’t, for example, go to the governor and get some special attention for their city or their district. But when you start electing people at the statewide level, then it’s easier to build at the grass-roots.”

GOP Prospects Bright

To the dismay of Democrats, GOP prospects appear to be bright. Among the Senate races, only veteran Democratic vote-getters Dale Bumpers of Arkansas and Ernest F. Hollings of South Carolina are considered sure-fire winners.

The latest polls show Denton ahead of four-term Rep. Richard C. Shelby, 57% to 32%, and Mattingly ahead of nine-year House veteran Rep. Wyche Fowler Jr. by 53% to 35%.

In North Carolina, the Senate race between Broyhill and former Democratic Gov. Terry Sanford is virtually a dead heat, according to the most recent public opinion survey. Broyhill, a former congressman, was appointed to his Senate seat in mid-July by GOP Gov. James G. Martin to complete the term of Republican Sen. John P. East, who committed suicide the previous month.

In Louisiana, where a Senate seat is opening up with the retirement of longtime Democratic Sen. Russell B. Long, GOP Rep. W. Henson Moore is making a strong bid for the office against Democratic Rep. John B. Breaux.

Uphill Battle in Florida

In Florida, however, Hawkins faces an uphill battle against popular two-term Democratic Gov. Bob Graham. Hawkins, who like Denton rode to victory in 1980 on Reagan’s coattails, entered the contest as an underdog and still lags behind.

“I think the Republicans will basically hold on to what they’ve got on the Senate level this year,” said Hasting Wymans Jr., publisher of the Washington-based Southern Political Report newsletter. “They’ll probably lose Florida but gain Louisiana. They’re in very good shape.”

With no overarching national issues to focus on, the Senate contenders have generally been running on their past or present record in government and on the character of their opponent. In Georgia, for instance, television commercials by Mattingly contend that he has voted to strengthen Social Security and that he has won the fight to save the federal peanut price support program. He accuses Fowler of voting against the balanced-budget amendment and of excessive absenteeism in Congress.

‘Big Lie Campaign’

Fowler calls Mattingly’s advertising campaign the “big lie campaign” and says: “Sen. Mattingly has been absent for Georgia over and over again. He’s absent in the debates about our textile industry and our farm policies because he cannot persuade people.”

In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Sanford began airing TV commercials after Labor Day summarizing his career of public service, including his tenure from 1971 to 1975 as governor. While avoiding direct criticism of Reagan, he has blasted the Administration’s policies on trade and agriculture, particularly Reagan’s veto of a bill to restrict imports of textiles, an important but troubled North Carolina industry.

In South Carolina, where illegal drugs have emerged as an issue, Hollings has contended that his opponent, Henry D. McMaster, never prepared or tried a drug case in the four years he served as U.S. attorney in the state. Hollings branded McMaster as a “fraud” and a person lacking “credibility” for suggesting otherwise. McMaster rejects the charges and accuses Hollings, in turn, of not supporting drug enforcement measures before Congress and of missing several key votes on the Crime Control Act of 1984.

Democrats have a decided advantage in the gubernatorial contests in Arkansas and Georgia, Wymans said, while Republicans have a chance in Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas.

Few National Issues

But the absence of polarizing national issues, which have helped Republicans win elections in the South in the past, could mean trouble for the GOP this year in state and local contests. That in turn jeopardizes Republican hopes for carving a bigger foothold in local government--Democrats still dominate state legislative seats in the region by a ratio of more than 4 to 1--and laying claim to a realignment of the parties.

“I think the Republicans missed their opportunity to solidify the realignment from the White House to the courthouse,” said Larry Sabato, a professor of government at the University of Virginia and a specialist in Southern politics. “What we see in the South now is a continuation of the bifurcated system where Republicans do well at the federal level but not so well at other levels.”

“It’s been very difficult over the last several years to get a deep and wide ticket,” said Connors, Alabama’s GOP executive director. “We can have very populist and charismatic leaders at the top of the ticket, like Reagan and Denton. But further down we’ve been sparse, particularly at the local level.”

Token Candidate

This year, the state GOP made Denton’s reelection its No. 1 priority and fielded only a token candidate for governor, a position Republicans in this state have not held for more than a century. He is Guy Hunt, 53, a Cullman County cattleman and former county probate judge.

Hunt’s political fortunes suddenly shot up, however, when a still-unsettled dispute erupted in the Democratic Party over who should be its nominee to succeed Democratic Gov. George C. Wallace, who announced his retirement from politics earlier this year.

In the June 24 Democratic runoff, conservative Atty. Gen. Charles Graddick finished ahead of liberal Lt. Gov. Bill Baxley by a 8,756-vote margin out of nearly 1 million ballots cast. But Democratic Party officials gave the nomination to Baxley after a federal court ruled that Graddick’s victory margin resulted from cross-over voting by Republicans that he illegally encouraged.

Graddick’s appeal to the Supreme Court was turned down this week, and he vowed to press ahead with a write-in campaign. Polls show Hunt beating Baxley in a two-way race and running about even with Graddick and Baxley in a three-way race.

“I bet the Republicans could cut their throats for not having put up a more qualified candidate than Hunt,” said Wayne Greenhaw of Montgomery, author of “Elephants in the Cottonfields,” a study of the emerging GOP in the South. “Now that they have their first real shot at electing a governor since Reconstruction, they have a candidate who is not likely to add any sparkle to the crown if he wins.”

Elsewhere, Republicans often encounter a rejuvenated Democratic Party.

“The Democrats have responded well to the Republican challenge,” said Numan V. Bartley, a University of Georgia history professor and co-author of “Southern Politics and the Second Reconstruction.” Bartley added: “They are managing to change with the times. In the ‘50s and ‘60s, they were the party of negativism, backward looking, always defending the traditional Southern way of life, opposing any kind of progress.

‘Whole New Breed’

“Republicans, on the other hand, while not precisely on the cutting edge of progressivism, nevertheless represented a new force with an appeal to conservatives who felt the Old Guard Democrats weren’t stopping anything for all their bluster. But in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s, the Democrats came up with a whole new breed of candidates--people like Jimmy Carter in Georgia, Bumpers in Arkansas and Reuben Askew in Florida. And, bingo, all across the board, they started winning.”

In Arkansas, for instance, Democratic Gov. Bill Clinton lost a reelection bid in 1980 against Republican Frank White, a plain-spoken exponent of Ronald Reagan Republicanism. Two years later, however, he staged a comeback, apologizing to voters for trying to “lead without listening.” Moreover, Clinton’s wife--an attorney who had insisted on retaining her maiden name in a state where such practices have an alien ring--became “Mrs. Bill Clinton.”

Clinton returned to the governor’s mansion with a 56%-44% victory, was reelected in 1984 with 62% of the vote and is now seeking his first four-year term under a new law abolishing the traditional two-year term. The latest poll shows him ahead of his opponent--once again former GOP Gov. White--by 60% to 30%.

Republicans have also lost ground in some areas in part because of intraparty feuds.

In Virginia, the Republican Party has been plunged into turmoil as the result of widening differences between the conservative Christian wing and the “Richmond Establishment,” which has exercised considerable influence over GOP affairs in the past.

Six years ago, Virginia was one of the most Republican-dominated states in the Old South. Republicans held the governorship, one Senate seat and nine out of the 10 congressional seats. Since then, they have managed to capture the other Senate seat but have lost three of the congressional seats as well as the governorship.

Last year, the Democrats swept the top three statewide slots--governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

Hope for Dividends

Republicans hope that local party-building efforts will build unity and eventually pay dividends in the South. In Tennessee, for example, state GOP leaders have drawn up a blueprint for action known as the Four Star Program in which county organizations work their way up from one star to four through such steps as organizing an executive committee, identifying all known Republicans and Democrats who have voted Republican, holding an annual Lincoln Day dinner, running information booths at county fairs and forming Pachyderm Clubs, civic-oriented groups composed of both men and women to replace the old Republican Men’s Clubs.

“This is a kind of effort Republicans need to make more of,” said Claibourne H. Darden Jr., a prominent Atlanta-based pollster and political analyst. “I think they spend much too much time trying to work from the top down. You know, until you start seeing Republican stickers on old pickup trucks, you don’t have a two-party system in the South.”

Times researcher Diana Rector contributed to this story.

CAMPAIGN ’86 BATTLEGROUND: THE SOUTH AT STAKE IN THE REGION

Democrat Republican Total Governorships 6 1 7 U.S. Senate seats 3 4 7 Congressional seats 73 43 116

STATE-BY-STATE PROFILES Deomocrats vs. Republicans Alabama

Gov: Democratic nomination is still in dispute between Lt. Bov. Bill Baxley and Atty. Gen Charles Graddick. The GOP nominee is Guy Hunt. The incumbent is retiring Democratic Gov. George Wallace.

Senate: Incumbent Jeremiah Denton (R) vs. Rep Richard Shelby.

House: 5 Democrats, 2 Republicans. Arkansas

Gov: Incumbent Bill Clinton (D) vs. former Gov. Frank White.

Senate: Incumbent Dale Bumpers (D) vs. Ex-U.S. Atty Asa Hutchinson.

House: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican. Florida

Gov: State Rep. Steve Pajcic (D) vs. former Tampa Mayor Bob Martinez (no incumbent, was Democrat).

Senate: Incumbent Paula Hawkins (R) vs. Gov. Bob Graham.

House: 12 Democrats, 7 Republicans. Georgia

Gov: Incumbent Joe Frank Harris (D) vs. Guy Davis.

Senate: Incumbent mack Mattingly (R) vs. Rep. Wyche Fowler.

House: 8 Democrats, 2 Republicans. Louisiana

Senate: Rep. John Breaux (D) vs. Rep. W. Henson Moore (no incumbent, was Democrat).