Occasionally in Racing, There Is Such a Thing as a Sure Thing

The man who made a $150,000 show bet at Laurel last Saturday dazzled fellow horseplayers with his audacity, but few of them recognized the most extraordinary aspect of this wager.

It created, for other people at the track, an opportunity that arises a few times a year in racing and nowhere else in the world of gambling: a genuine “sure thing.” A bettor who understands parimutuel mathematics could have made show bets on the Laurel Futurity in a fashion that would guarantee a profit no matter what the result.

Under normal conditions, serious horseplayers rarely think about making show bets. But when a favorite looks absolutely unbeatable, a gambler might reasonably try to collect the minimum return of $2.10 for $2 (or, in some generous states, $2.20). If a bettor had the necessary temperament and a $100,000 bankroll, he might earn a decent living by looking for 10 solid show bets across the country during the course of a year.

He would want:

--A favorite who is a consistent, high-class stakes horse.

--A field with no more than five or six rivals who are totally outclassed, so that even if the favorite runs a sub-par race he will still finish in the money. (That’s what happened at Laurel; the favorite, Bet Twice, actually gave a lousy performance, but against his four mediocre rivals it didn’t matter.)

--Ideally, the race should be in a state that mandates a minimum payoff of $2.20. Simulcasting has increased the opportunities for such wagers. A bettor who wants to make a plunge on an odds-on favorite at Belmont might be advised to bet on the simulcast at Rockingham Park in New Hampshire, where he would collect $2.20 instead of $2.10.

Of course, the danger of this style of play is that one unforeseeable event--a disqualification, a jockey falling off, a horse breaking down--can wipe out a show bettor’s whole bankroll. That’s why these players are known as “bridge-jumpers” in racing lingo.

But when the plunger has made his bet, other less intrepid souls can take advantage of the situation and make money without risk. Sharpen your pencils and get out your notebooks, class; it’s time for a math lesson.

Last Saturday at Laurel, there was approximately $160,000 in the show pool, of which $154,000 had been wagered on Bet Twice. For the sake of simplicity, we will assume that the remaining $6,000 was bet equally on the other horses--$1,500 each on Grand Rol, Pledge Card, Drachma and A Firm Diamond.

If Bet Twice finished in the money (as he did), all the show payoffs would be $2.10, of course. But what if Bet Twice finished out of the money? What would the show payoffs be?

With $160,000 wagered, the state and track extract their standard 17% “take,” which leaves $132,800 to be distributed to the fans. This money is divided in three equal parts--$44,266 each--paid out to the holders of tickets on the three horses who finished in the money.

If $1,500 was bet on a horse to show, that is the equivalent of 750 $2 tickets. Divide 750 into $44,266 and the show payoff is supposed to be $59.02. The track takes the odd cents, so that if Bet Twice had finished out of the money in our hypothetical example, each of the top three finishers would pay a whopping $59 to show.

It would be possible for us to make our own sizable show bet on Bet Twice, but also to make small wagers on each of the other horses so that we would still make a profit if the favorite finished out of the money. After tinkering with the numbers for a few minutes, I came up with this investment: Bet $10,000 to show on the favorite, and $130 on each of the other four horses, for a total play of $10,520.

If Bet Twice finishes in the money, we collect on our $10,000 bet and two of our $130 bets. A 5% return on $10,260 yields $10,773. We have made a profit of $253.

If Bet Twice finishes out of the money, our wagers on the other horses would have altered the payoffs slightly, reducing the show prices to $57.80 on each of the horses. A $130 wager on a horse who pays $57.80 would yield $3,757, and we would collect three such payoffs--for a total of $11,271. This is a profit of $751.

A mathematically sophisticated bettor could surely program a pocket-sized computer to calculate the amount that should be wagered on each horse. In actual practice, of course, different amounts would have to be bet on each horse, and the calculations would have to be made a minute or two before post time. But the effort would be worthwhile. A bet of this type would typically yield a 3% profit. It would take half a year to generate that income with an investment in U.S. Treasury bills. At the track it takes only two minutes.