UCI Growth of 41% by Year 2000 Predicted

Student enrollment at UC Irvine, already causing crowding problems this year, is expected to swell by 41% by the turn of the century, according to a report presented to the University of California regents Thursday.

The number of UCI undergraduates, about 10,500 in 1985, will grow to 14,592, according to the report, which also predicts that the number of graduate students will grow from 1,427 last year to about 2,650 in the year 2000.

The report projects that statewide enrollment in the nine University of California campuses will grow by 21% by the turn of the century. It was presented at UC Irvine, where regents held their monthly meeting.

The report prompted one regent, Fresno attorney Leo S. Kolligian, to propose constructing a 10th campus--UC Fresno. He asked fellow regents to begin studying the feasibility of building a campus to serve the “neglected” Central Valley residents. The board took no action.

Regent’s Pet Project

“It’s time to get away from the Pacific Ocean and get into the valley, into Fresno,” Kolligian said.

UC President David P. Gardner, while not endorsing the idea, said after the meeting that a new campus “is not imminent but it’s not outside the range of present options.” If a new campus is to be built, he said, “I think the Central Valley would have a strong claim.”

The proposal--a pet project of Kolligian--was proposed during discussion of a report projecting an increase of 22,775 undergraduate students over the current UC system enrollment of 108,540. With undergraduates and graduates combined, the number is expected to increase from the current 129,279 to about 160,000, according to the report.

Gardner said the existing campuses will be able to accommodate the growing enrollment provided that the state finances the construction of new classrooms and other facilities. Although he had no figures, he said he would “be surprised” if building a new campus would cost less than expanding the existing ones.

UCI Chancellor Jack W. Peltason echoed Gardner, saying the Orange County campus should be able to handle its projected growth if new buildings and other facilities are constructed.

In comments to the regents, Peltason said the Irvine campus could grow to 20,000 students in the next 15 years--about 2,500 more students than projected by the UC report.

The Irvine campus originally was planned to accommodate about 27,000 students, he said. Despite the fact that growth has not kept up with the original predictions, the fact remains that UC Irvine has swelled from 1,500 students when it opened in 1965 to about 14,000 undergraduate and graduate students this year, he said.

“There are few examples (of campuses) that have come so far, so fast,” he told the regents.

UCI is overcrowded now because construction has not kept up with the influx of students, he said after the meeting.

Peltason said campus officials turned down about 2,000 or more applications for the current school year but were faced with an unexpected 7% hike in students anyway because the “take rate”--the percentage of accepted students who actually enroll--was higher than normal.

The UC future enrollment figures for the nine campuses were calculated based on population figures and other factors, according to the report.

Number Could Grow

Officials expect 7.5% of California high school graduates to continue to choose UC campuses for higher education. However, the number could grow as outreach programs for black and Latino high school students result in increasing numbers of minority students eligible for UC enrollment, according to the report.

In addition, improved transfer programs from community colleges, immigration into California from other states and increased demand for education among women contribute to the predicted swelling enrollment, the report states.

“Although these assumptions seem reasonable, they are far from certainties. Social or other changes which make a university education, or a University of California education, less desirable could result in a decline,” the report states.

Among the factors making UCI desirable, the report states, are the possibility of new academic programs, affirmative action programs, changing ethnic proportions, higher visibility of the expanded campus and changing career and employment opportunities for graduates.

In addition, the “dynamic economy” of the Orange County area will feed more students to the Irvine campus, as will the cap on enrollment at nearby UCLA, the report states.

UCLA, now at the limits of its capacity, is expected to maintain its enrollment at 22,000 through the years, it states. UC San Diego, which had 11,817 students last year, is predicted to grow to 17,500, according to the report.

The UC report projects that the Riverside campus will grow by 124% over the next 15 years, from the 3,833 undergraduate students enrolled last year to 8,600 in the year 2000.

One of Fastest-Growing Areas

The “Riverside-San Bernardino area is one of the fastest-growing areas of the state and is expected to continue to be so,” the report states.

Projecting the increase in graduate students is more uncertain, the report states, but it predicted the number at all campuses to grow from 24,794 last year to somewhere between 31,350 to 33,030 at the turn of the century. The number excludes medical students.

Graduate students now make up 19.2% of the UC enrollment, and their number is expected to swell to between 19.7% to 20.9% by 2000, according to the report.

At UCI, 1,427 graduate students made up 12.5% of the enrollment in 1985. In 2000, they are expected to number from 2,650 to 2,850, making up 15.1% to 16.1% of the students, the report states.

Kolligian, in attempting to sell the idea of a campus in Fresno, told fellow regents that the growth predictions could create congestion problems and reduce “aesthetics” at the existing campuses. Beside, he said, residents of the Fresno area are geographically discriminated against by the lack of a local UC campus.

According to Kolligian, only 3% of the Central Valley’s high school graduates go on to UC schools, compared to a statewide average of 7.5%.

He said California State University, Fresno has an enrollment of more than 17,000--larger than many UC campuses--because local families in the poorer, agricultural communities cannot afford to send their children away to college.