County Poll Shows Deukmejian’s Lead Wide, Zschau’s Narrow

A survey of Orange County voters conducted in September shows Republican Gov. George Deukmejian leading Democratic challenger Tom Bradley by nearly 2 to 1 and Republican Senate candidate Ed Zschau with an 11 percentage-point edge over U.S. Sen. Alan Cranston (D-Calif.).

Mark Baldassare, the UC Irvine professor who conducted the survey, released the results this week. He conceded Thursday that the pace of the statewide campaigns had quickened since his interviews.

But he said the poll still indicates that “Zschau is not in a strong position to win statewide” in view of the narrow margin Zschau had as recently as last month in the populous, predominantly Republican county.

Still, he cautioned, “the large number of undecided voters--equally prevalent among Democrats and Republicans (in the Orange County poll)--makes this a difficult race to call.”

Methods, Conclusions Criticized

Officials in the Zschau campaign vigorously disputed Baldassare’s conclusions, as well as his polling methodology.

Zschau press secretary Sandra Conlan argued that because Baldassare interviewed 865 registered voters over 17 days--from Sept. 2 to 19--instead of in one or two days, “the polling technique doesn’t satisfy the basic requirement of taking a snapshot in time. This is a docu-drama over 17 days.”

Pollster Gary Lawrence of Decision-Making Information in Santa Ana, which does polling for Zschau as well as for President Ronald Reagan, also argued that “political attitudes are so subject to change” that in just a few days, “everything could have gone up and back down and up and back down in between.” If Baldassare took a snapshot, it was a “blurred” one with the wrong f-stop, Lawrence said.

However, Mark DeCamillo, managing director of Mervin Field’s California Poll, said a poll taken over a 17-day period could be valid.

Baldassare argued that there might be a legitimate question about his poll if it had been taken “during a period of really intense activity. That wasn’t the case from Sept. 1 to 19.” He said his poll measured the “average response” of voters in the period.

December Publication

The poll was part of Baldassare’s 5-year-old Orange County Annual Survey, which examines local attitudes toward housing, transportation and social issues and is financed by about 30 corporations and foundations in the county. The full survey is to be published in December.

In addition to looking at county attitudes regarding the Senate and gubernatorial races, the poll showed that 57% of the respondents would have voted against confirmation of Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird. According to the poll, 43% of Democrats and 38% of self-described liberals would have voted against her.

In the Senate race, Baldassare showed Cranston getting 36% of all votes from his Orange County sample and Zschau getting 47%. Seventeen percent were undecided.

Explaining his poll, Baldassare wrote that Zschau “still falls short of majority support (in Orange County) and if these numbers hold up, probably lacks the backing here to overturn Cranston” statewide. Republican strategists in the statewide races have said that, to win, they are counting on a wide margin of victory from conservative Orange County. Republican votes here traditionally offset losses in Democratic areas in Northern California.

Baldassare’s poll also shows 62% of Orange County Democrats polled supporting Cranston, 22% of Orange County Democrats supporting Zschau and 16% of Democrats undecided. Meanwhile, the survey shows 19% of county Republicans polled favoring Cranston, 63% favoring Zschau and 18% undecided.

Cranston Aide Comments

In addition, the poll shows 59% of the conservatives supporting Zschau, 23% supporting Cranston and 18% of conservatives undecided. Moderates were split 36% for Cranston, 45% for Zschau and 19% undecided. And 66% of liberals favored Cranston, while 21% were for Zschau and 13% were undecided.

Kam Kuwata, press secretary for Cranston, said the numbers appear to be “similar to figures we’ve seen statewide” from other polls.

Kuwata said Zschau’s support appears “lackluster . . . Zschau still has problems defining himself. He’s not well known and not well liked by any group of people. And when he is in a Republican area of the state, you have to have a huge majority (to win statewide), and he’s not getting it.”

In the gubernatorial race, Baldassare said the governor drew “majority support” in nearly all demographic groups, with young people and senior citizens favoring Deukmejian along with political moderates and people of all income brackets.

The poll shows Deukmejian favored by 55% of those polled with Bradley receiving support from 31% and 14% of the voters undecided. It shows 26% of Democrats polled liked Deukmejian with 58% favoring Bradley and 16% undecided.

In addition, the poll shows conservatives favoring Deukmejian over Bradley 75% to 13% with 12% undecided. Of liberals polled, 26% favored Deukmejian, 62% favored Bradley and 12% were undecided. And 51% of political moderates favored Deukmejian as compared to 33% of moderates for Bradley and 16% undecided.

‘We Are Very Pleased’

Deukmejian campaign spokeswoman Donna Lipper called Baldassare’s findings “pretty consistent with what we’re seeing. . . . We don’t know the pollster, but obviously we are very pleased,” she said. She noted that their campaign polls for Orange County now show Deukmejian “with better than a 2-1 edge over Bradley and a low undecided.”

Asked about Baldassare’s findings, Bradley deputy press secretary Dee Dee Myers said: “We’re doing much better than that in statewide polls.” She said the campaign has not singled out Orange County in its own polling. But Myers said, “What’s significant in a very conservative county is that George Deukmejian has only 55% of the vote. Which means that even in Orange County, voters are taking a second look at George Deukmejian.”

On Chief Justice Bird, Baldassare’s poll shows that 27% of the voters favored her confirmation, 57% would vote to reject her and 16% were undecided. Although 40% of Democrats would vote to confirm her, the poll shows 43% would deny her confirmation and another 17% were undecided. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans polled favored Bird’s removal, 19% favored confirmation and 14% were undecided.

Also, 38% of political liberals in Orange County favored Bird’s removal, with 51% favoring confirmation and 11% undecided, the poll shows. Of moderates, 55% favored Bird’s removal, 29% favored confirmation and 16% were undecided. Seventy percent of conservatives favored removal; 13% of conservatives favored her confirmation, and 17% were undecided.