The Times Poll : Governor Up by 10% Despite Bradley Gains

Gov. George Deukmejian is coasting with a 10-point lead in his reelection bid as Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, capitalizing on the voters’ concern over toxic pollution, struggles to gain ground in the final days of their bitter race, according to The Times Poll.

Two big things the Republican governor has going for him in the voters’ view are factors that often help incumbent officeholders: leadership and experience.

Added to that in Deukmejian’s case are the political advantages he has been able to generate by strongly opposing unpopular California Chief Justice Rose Elizabeth Bird and also by becoming known to voters as a “law-and-order” governor who holds down state spending.

Among registered voters regarded by The Times Poll as likely to cast ballots on Nov. 4, Deukmejian leads Bradley by 51% to 41%, with 8% undecided. This represents a gain of five points for the Democratic challenger since a similar survey by The Times Poll in early September, when Deukmejian led 51% to 36%.

Most Likely to Vote

The latest poll was conducted over a six-day period ending last Thursday. In all, 1,594 registered voters were interviewed by telephone. Of these, I. A. Lewis, Times Poll director, selected 990 who seemed to be the most likely actually to vote, based on their answers to a series of questions concerning past voting habits and future intentions. The margin of error is 3% for all the registered voters and 4% for likely voters. When the race is measured on the basis of all registered voters, Deukmejian leads by eight points, 47% to 39% with 13% undecided and 1% split among three minor party candidates: Libertarian Joseph Fuhrig, American Independent Gary V. Miller and Maria Elizabeth Munoz of the Peace and Freedom Party. In the September poll, Deukmejian led by nine points among registered voters.

Clearly, Bradley’s best campaign issue is the one he has been using aggressively throughout the race, with heavy emphasis in television commercials: a charge that Deukmejian has mismanaged the cleanup of toxic dumps and even sometimes sided with toxic polluters who have contributed to his campaign. The governor has adamantly denied the accusations, which have left him and his advisers deeply embittered toward the mayor.

But the effectiveness of the toxics issue for Bradley was measured several ways by The Times Poll. For one thing, likely voters placed “toxic pollution” at the top of the list when asked to identify “the single most important issue” in the gubernatorial campaign. And people who regarded it as the most important issue favored Bradley by a 5-4 ratio.

Another indication of how Bradley has been able to attract support by denouncing Deukmejian’s record on chemical waste is that half the voters who favored the mayor regarded toxics as the most important issue. Only three in 10 of Deukmejian’s backers did. Also, when asked which candidate “would do the best job of handling toxic waste problems,” Bradley got the nod by a 4-3 ratio.

Has Little Else Going

Additionally, Bradley appears to have enhanced his political advantage on this issue by strongly supporting Proposition 65, the popular anti-toxics ballot initiative, which Deukmejian opposes.

But one has to look hard to find another campaign plus for Bradley. By a 3-2 ratio, voters thought Deukmejian “would be closest to the special interests,” presumably a negative connotation. But this ranked near the bottom of the list of most important issues.

The second most important issue in the voters’ eyes, behind toxics, was Chief Justice Bird--a big advantage for Deukmejian. Bradley has remained neutral on Bird’s uphill reconfirmation effort, while Deukmejian consistently has attacked her for overturning death penalty sentences. Among people who regarded Bird as the campaign’s most important issue, Deukmejian was favored by a whopping ratio of more than 2 to 1.

Among Deukmejian’s supporters, the most important issue by far was the chief justice. And when all likely voters were asked which candidate had “the best position” on Bird, Deukmejian was chosen by nearly a 2-1 ratio.

The governor, a former state attorney general and self-described fiscal conservative, also has carved himself out niches on law and order and state spending. They each rank in the mid-priority range of most important issues. And people mainly concerned about them favored Deukmejian by overwhelming ratios of better than 2 to 1.

The drug problem ranked third on the list of important issues. But neither candidate seemed to be able to capitalize politically on the voters’ concerns.

Leadership Factor

What the voters liked particularly about Deukmejian was his ability to “get things done” and his “leadership.” They placed these two similar attributes near or at the top of the list when asked to identify “the single most important quality” they considered in deciding which gubernatorial candidate to support. People mainly concerned about leadership qualities favored Deukmejian by a 5-3 ratio.

Likewise, voters who cited experience as the most important quality preferred the governor by about 3 to 2.

The Times survey showed that, hypothetically, there is a four-point advantage for a white candidate who runs against a black. Bradley is black.

This four-point racial factor was measured by asking two sets of voters to choose between two candidates named merely “Mr. A” and “Mr. B.” The candidates were described the same way to both voter sets, with one important difference: One set was told that “Mr. B” was black. When described as black, “Mr. B” ran four points worse than when he was not characterized racially.

Voters specifically also were asked whether “realistically speaking, do you think you would be somewhat more likely to vote for Tom Bradley because he is black, or somewhat less likely, or do you think Tom Bradley’s race would make very little difference?” The vast majority, 92%, replied “very little difference.” Among the rest, 4% answered they would be “less likely” to vote for him and 3% said they would be “more likely”--a racial factor of 1%. Another 1% said they were not sure.

Blacks said they would be somewhat more likely to vote for Bradley because he is black. To a lesser extent, Latinos also would be more likely. But whites, who make up roughly 80% of the electorate, tended--by a two-point spread--to be somewhat less likely to vote for the mayor because of his race. This was particularly true among ideological conservatives.

In the 1982 gubernatorial election, Deukmejian defeated Bradley by a razor-thin margin of 1.2 percentage points.

In this survey, whites supported Deukmejian by a 20-point margin. Blacks supported Bradley by 68 points and Latinos backed him by 29 points.

Also, there was a significant gender gap. The two candidates were tied among women, but Deukmejian enjoyed a 22-point lead among men.

Virtual Tie in L.A. County

Voters under age 30 were evenly divided between the two. The 30-44 age group favored Deukmejian slightly and people 45 and older liked the governor by 13 points.

In Los Angeles County, the candidates were virtually tied, but in the remainder of Southern California, Deukmejian held a 26-point lead.

The governor made gains during the last month in the San Francisco Bay Area, although it still is his challenger’s best region by far. Bradley led there by 11 points in the latest survey, after having held a bulging 21-point advantage among likely voters in early September. Deukmejian led by 18 points in the rest of Northern California.

Most people--three-fourths of them--thought Deukmejian would emerge the winner on Nov. 4. Even a majority of Bradley’s supporters conceded that they felt that way.

THE RACIAL FACTOR IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR WHICH HYPOTHETICAL CANDIDATE WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE AS GOVERNOR? Slightly different questions asked of two separate groups of respondents. ‘Don’t know’ responses not shown.

Description of candidates as read to group 1

Mr. A: He is about 55 years old, he was born and raised in Los Angeles, he is married and is a businessman . . . 38% Mr. B: He is about 60 years old, he was born and raised in San Francisco, he is married with one child and his career has been as an attorney . . 35% Mr. B loses by 3 percentage points

Description of candidates as read to group 2

Mr. A: He is about 55 years old, he was born and raised in Los Angeles, he is married with two children and is a businessman . . . 34% Mr. B: His is about 60 years old, he was born and raised in San Francisco, he is black, he is married with one child and his career has been as an attorney . . . 27% Mr. B loses by 7 percentage points when he is described as black

THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR

These Los Angeles Times Poll figures are from two telephone surveys of likely voters.

Deukmejian

Sept. 4-9 October 11-19 (971 voters) (990 voters) 51% 51%

Bradley

Sept. 4-9 October 11-19 (971 voters) (990 voters) 36% 41%