Soviet Bloc-West Trade Surpasses Predictions

East-West trade rebounded in the first half of this year, paced by exports of Soviet oil and natural gas to the West, a U.N. study said Friday.

Trade between Soviet-bloc nations and the West was greater than had been projected in early 1986, when observers predicted that the collapse in oil prices would threaten Soviet hard currency income, the study said.

About 80% of Soviet export earnings come from the export of oil and other fuels.

During January-June of 1986, a 30% rise in the volume of Soviet exports to the West was accompanied by a 16% cut in Soviet imports, the study said. In contrast, non-Soviet East European imports from both developing and Western industrialized countries showed a sharp rise.

Modest Expansion

But world economic trends point to only a modest expansion of East-West trade in the near future, the study said. It did not give a figure.

The study was prepared by the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, a 34-nation body grouping of European countries, the Soviet Union, the United States and Canada.

Soviet-bloc net foreign debt is expected to rise to $83 billion this year from $74 billion in 1985, mainly because the value of the dollar fell against most major currencies.

Some East European countries seeking to finance imports stepped up borrowing in the first half of this year.

ECE analysts said these included the Soviet Union, Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Bulgaria. Soviet gold sales also continued, the study said, but it did not elaborate.

The trade growth followed a year of falling exports by the Soviet bloc in 1985.

In the first half of this year, exports of Soviet oil and oil products to the West rose about 13% as supply problems were overcome and output began rising again, the study said.

The statistics indicated a “very rapid adjustment” by the Soviets to changes in world market conditions due to improved production performance and efficiency, the report said.

Output Rises

Soviet petroleum production, sliding since 1984, picked up this year, and coal and gas output also have been rising, it added.

But Moscow’s East European allies are having more trouble adapting to world economic trends, it said.

Their exports to the West, including primary products, chemicals and engineering equipment, rose about 5%. Imports rose 6%, led by food, consumer goods and engineering products.

The Soviet trade surplus with other East European countries more than tripled, partly due to higher imports by Poland and Romania, according to the report.