Commentary : A Troubling View of the Future

What do the next few years hold in store for Orange County? According to residents polled for the 1986 Orange County Annual Survey, the future will be a divided one.

Residents express nearly unbridled optimism about the health of their own pocketbooks and expect economic gains of the past to continue. But when the issue of life in their county is raised, the poll finds, a far dimmer outlook prevails. Nearly half of the 1,000 respondents think Orange County will become a worse place to live in the future.

The stimulus for these mixed views is Orange County’s evolution into a diverse, cosmopolitan metroplex. In their ambivalence, residents are both reaping the rewards and fearing the changes of a suburb in transition.

Economically, the past few years have been exceptionally good for Orange County residents. The number of households earning more than $50,000 a year has doubled since 1982.

One in three residents consider themselves above middle-class. Money worries are few and living standards are high compared with the nation. After half a decade of steady gains, the area’s residents have forgotten about economic troubles. In predicting their personal finances, they see only sunny skies ahead.

But when it comes to the future of Orange County, the forecast turns bleak.

The past year saw a leap in the numbers saying the quality of life here will decline. It appears Orange County is losing its appeal as a residential address.

What brings such gloom into a normally upbeat county? Two signs of change appear to be etching themselves into residents’ minds--growth and immigration. The number naming these topics as the county’s top problems nearly tripled since last year. Even though they are benefitting financially, residents are upset by changes in the county’s character. Their fear and resentment of these changes translate to pessimism about the county’s future.

Residents’ wants for the future are as divided as their views of the future. On the issue of development, they want restrictions in the cities they live in but not in the county as a whole. They think this would offer them the best of both worlds--an unchanging neighborhood and a strong regional economy. But obviously, if each city was to halt growth within its borders, such a goal would be unattainable.

Although anti-growth sentiment does not appear to have risen in the past five years, growing fear about the county’s future may be mobilizing attitudes into action. This fear already has materialized as no-growth initiatives and candidates.

The future can only bring more conflict over growth within cities and pit one municipality against another, as residents strive to sustain growth on the regional level while stifling it locally.

Meanwhile, traffic congestion continues to plague residents, with the plunge in satisfaction levels this year breaking last year’s record drop. The number of residents encountering a “great problem” during their commute has doubled since 1982. Support for the car-pool lane experiment on the 55 Freeway is strong. We’ve seen a growing opinion, especially in the South County, that new freeways are more essential than additional freeway lanes.

But when residents are asked to put their money where their mouths are and decide which traffic solutions they would actually like to see implemented, the longstanding opposition to freeway construction returns. In assigning priorities to various transportation policies, people still prefer to see their local streets improved and the freeways they currently use expanded before new freeways or car-pool lanes are built.

What residents really want are solutions to their personal commuting troubles, not a cure for the county as a whole.

Though housing this year barely registered among residents’ concerns, this topic should not be ignored. We saw several trends worth current noting and future analysis.

For one, we began the decade with two in three households occupying single-family homes, while this year, the number has shrunk to one in two. By next year, single-family homes will probably be in the minority, a clear departure from the ideal suburbia of the past. And both mortgages and rents increased faster than inflation and income, which means housing is claiming an ever-bigger portion of residents’ budgets.

Although most residents think Orange County will become a worse place to live, we see little evidence that they are trying to do something about it. This lack of action stems from the basic political philosophy here: high on civil liberties and low on civic obligations.

As in the past, this year’s survey again found tremendous support for individual rights. Despite their political conservatism, county residents outpace the nation in lenience toward homosexuality and adult pornography.

But we now know this social liberalism stems from a demand for privacy, not from a sense of social responsibility. When asked to name their civic duties, residents make a poor showing indeed. Fewer than half say they consider it important to help the poor, give time to community services or donate money to arts and culture.

Of all the trends we note, this disinterest in community needs is by far the most troubling. Community leaders must now begin restoring confidence in the county’s future and work to get residents involved. If not, and residents fail to live up to their civic obligations as wealthy and resourceful citizens, the pessimism about Orange County’s future will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.