Sandag Sees 3.2 Million County Residents by 2010

Buoyed by strong economic development, particularly in the northern sector, San Diego County is expected to be home to a large wave of migrants by the year 2010, resulting in a 48% increase from the 1985 population of 2.1 million to about 3.2 million.

The San Diego Assn. of Governments’ projections indicate that the county will experience an average population growth of 41,000 people each year. In a report released last month by Sandag, the agency said 1 out of every 10 people in California will live somewhere in San Diego County by the year 2010. In 1985, the figure was 1 out of 12.

To illustrate the county’s growth to 3.2 million residents, Sandag said: “This is the equivalent of adding another city with the population size of the City of San Diego to the region over the next 25 years.”

Analysts said they believe that the industrial and population growth will increase in North County and in various parts of the South Bay, areas where city officials and residents have already seen a steady rise in population and development expansion.

“North County is going to grow very rapidly,” Sandag economist Marney Cox said.

A 1984 Sandag report figured that about 2.7 million people would be living in San Diego County by the year 2000. The new study said the estimated increase to 3.2 million residents by 2010 was based on the following factors:

- Higher fertility rates.

- The number of uniformed military personnel will rise steadily.

- The flow of undocumented immigrants will continue to rise.

Carlsbad already has taken measures to try to stem the flow of development, including an initiative passed by voters in November that limits the number of residential dwelling units.

“How it will affect the rate of growth is unknown,” said Gary Wayne, senior planner for Carlsbad. “It will make it harder to develop.”

Patrick Alford, an associate planner for Oceanside, said: “Our growth has been continuous sometimes at a higher pace. People enjoy the San Diego quality of life. The only real issue is the quality of growth, and how do we manage it.”

Other areas where major potential growth is expected soon are in the South Bay, Cox said. He cited the Otay Mesa area, where land previously geared for agriculture is now ticketed for industrial use.

Cox added that another factor, not in the report, contributing to the large number of people coming into the area is the overall climate of Southern California.

“There’s no doubt that the quality of life is better,” Cox said. “The sunshine and the relatively good weather . . . for the metropolitan area in the United States, that’s what gets all the people interested in moving here in the first place.”

The forecasts were developed by the regional planning group to help the county’s 18 cities, unincorporated areas and other public agencies plan for the future by anticipating the impact of growth on such things as employment, development, housing, transportation and public facilities.