Troops Near Outskirts of Basra, Iran Claims : Diplomat Says Next 72 Hours Will Determine City’s Fate; Attacks Beaten Back, Iraq Reports

Iran claimed to have advanced its forces closer to the southern Iraqi port of Basra on Sunday in fierce fighting that Western diplomats in Baghdad described as one of the most fateful battles of the 6 1/2-year-old Persian Gulf War.

One veteran diplomatic observer predicted that the outcome of the battle for this nation’s second largest city and its sole remaining outlet to the sea will be determined within the next 72 hours.

Iraq reported more heavy fighting close to Basra but said that the Iranian attacks were beaten back.

Claim Capture of 2 Islands

The Iranians claimed to have captured two more small islands in the Shatt al Arab waterway southeast of Basra and to have advanced to within 500 yards of the city’s suburban outskirts.

While Western military experts here said this claim appeared to be a gross exaggeration, there were reports that the Iranians have pushed westward along the north bank of the Shatt to positions close to Abu al Khasib, a small town about nine miles southeast of Basra. If so, this would appear to indicate that the Iranians have further widened the bridgehead they established at Fish Lake, six miles east of Basra, at the start of their latest offensive 10 days ago.

Although an Iranian force positioned on a small island in a water barrier in back of the lake was actually closer to Basra, the forces reported to be inching west along the Shatt are in a better position to advance, analysts said.

Iraqi war communiques made no mention of the fighting on the southern front until late in the day, and then they said only that Iraqi forces had defeated new Iranian attacks “south of Fish Lake” overnight. They said that more cross-border attacks by the Iranians on the central war front northeast of Baghdad were also repelled overnight.

Iraqi television, which nightly shows film footage of dead Iranians on the battlefront, showed only pictures from the central front Sunday night.

Iraqi President Saddam Hussein summoned the nation’s top political leadership to a meeting Sunday night. The meeting, of the nine-member Revolutionary Command Council and the regional command of the ruling Arab Baath Socialist Party, followed an unusually long meeting of the armed forces general command, which conferred with Hussein on developments in the war for 10 hours on Saturday.

Although it was hard to assess from Baghdad the situation on the southern front, Western diplomats and military experts here said it appears that the Iranians have significantly widened their initial bridgehead and now pose a serious threat to Basra itself.

“This has turned into one of the most fateful battles of the war. The last few days have been extremely critical,” one Western diplomat said.

Hardly Under Control

“I think the Iraqis can still channel the situation, but I wouldn’t describe it as under control. I think that over the next 72 hours, we will see some decisive activities on the front lines,” another diplomat added.

Although hampered by heavy Iraqi artillery fire, the Iranians appear to have succeeded in building earthworks in support of Revolutionary Guards trying to advance against the Iraqi defense lines in “human wave” assaults.

While the Iranians do not appear to have gotten very far yet--formidable Iraqi defense lines surrounding Basra still lie ahead of them--the seriousness of the situation stems from the fact that they have been able to keep and consolidate the positions they have taken, Western analysts said.

‘A Sinking Feeling’

“I have a sinking feeling that this is going to be just like Al Faw,” one diplomat said, referring to the Iraqi town at the southeastern end of the Shatt that was captured by the Iranians last February.

In that offensive, the Iranians were able to convert a small foothold into a full-scale invasion after the Iraqis failed to act quickly.

The diplomat said he fears that “the Iraqis again have squandered too much time.”

If the Iranians have now established their second southern bridgehead, it could put them in a position “directly threatening” to Basra, analysts said.

Strategic Target

Basra, about 300 miles southeast of Baghdad, is believed to be the strategic target of Iran’s long-threatened “final offensive.” Although most diplomats, as recently as two weeks ago, had expressed doubts that Iran was capable of mounting such an offensive, some of them now think it could be launched at any time as a result of the new opportunity that has opened up for the Iranians in the south.

Theories about the “final offensive” hold that the Iranians will begin it with a diversionary assault in the central sector, along the frontier directly east of Baghdad, to force the Iraqis to divide their superior air power. Then from their bridgehead at Al Faw southeast of Basra and new positions east of it, they will move upward and westward toward the city in an effort to encircle it.

Over the past few days, the Iranians have been launching what Western military experts see as “probing attacks” along the central front to test Iraqi defenses and search for weak spots.

Basra itself came under more heavy Iranian artillery fire Sunday that killed eight people and injured 28, Iraqi military spokesmen said.