Looking Good

The latest Soviet offer on nuclear-arms reduction contains some blind curves that worry the European allies. But the Soviet Union does seem to have made the fundamental decision that now is the time to make a deal. Assuming that Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev sticks by what he has said, the most important arms-control agreements in postwar history may be within reach.

An agreement on medium-range, European-based missiles was practically ready for signing at the time of the Reykjavik summit meeting between Gorbachev and President Reagan. It fell through because Moscow demanded restraints on this country’s strategic missile defense program.

Last week Gorbachev made a major concession. He reaffirmed the tentative agreement reached months ago under which both major powers would remove all their medium-range missiles from Europe. Each side could retain 100 such missiles outside Europe. The Soviet leader, addressing the major stumbling block, agreed that such a deal would no longer be contingent on a parallel agreement restraining research and development on missile defenses.

The Reagan Administration’s response has been positive. Secretary of State George P. Shultz will journey to Moscow in mid-April, openly hopeful that in-depth discussions will produce progress not only on the Euromissile question but also on the whole range of arms-control issues. Soviet sources are speculating that a new Reagan-Gorbachev summit might be in the cards.

There is a distinct possibility that the Soviets see an opportunity to exploit Reagan’s domestic political problems stemming from the Iran- contra scandal. They may figure that, since the American President needs a diplomatic victory, they should get an agreement while the getting is good; they cannot be entirely sure that the atmosphere will be as promising if they wait for a new President.

Provided that Reagan is prudent, such a Soviet motive would not be cause for balking at an agreement. There are, however, some genuine problems that must be dealt with.

Problem No. 1 is European ambivalence. Most of the allied governments are politically committed to the negotiated removal of all U.S. and Soviet medium-range missiles from Europe. In fact, however, there is genuine concern within the national-security establishments in West Germany, France and Britain.

To begin with, Gorbachev’s proposal is vague on what would happen to short-range missiles, in which the Soviets have a commanding advantage. As nuclear weapons were removed, the Soviets’ large numerical edge on Western Europe in conventional, non-nuclear arms would become more important. Based on past performance, it is doubtful that the European allies are prepared to make any substantial increases in spending for conventional arms.

Problems also may arise over verification of the removal or destruction of medium-range missiles. This time around, the Soviets, far from resisting U.S. demands for intrusive inspections, are professing to favor on-site verification procedures even more stringent than those reportedly proposed by Washington. If this is just a gambit to appear tough to Soviet skeptics, well and good. But if the Soviets intend to use a missile pact as an excuse to peek into the “stealth” bomber plant or other military facilities beyond the scope of the agreement, it is mischievous and destructive.

Clearly this is a time for common-sense prudence and close coordination with the allies on matters directly affecting their security. But if it should turn out that the Europeans don’t really want the U.S.-made missiles withdrawn, they should say so. The United States cannot allow itself to be put into the position of raising objections in behalf of allied governments that won’t speak plainly themselves.

As of now, the allies say that they favor the acceptance of an agreement that would remove both U.S. and Soviet medium-range missiles from Europe--the so-called zero-zero package. If the Soviets are willing to make credible commitments toward negotiation of a balance in short-range missiles and conventional arms, the chances for agreement look very good indeed.