Senate Democrats Concede They Lack Votes to Stop Contra Aid

Despite the enormous political controversy generated by the Iran- contra scandal, Democratic leaders acknowledge that they cannot successfully halt military aid to the Nicaraguan rebels when it comes up for a vote in the Senate today.

As the Senate on Tuesday began debating a measure that would deprive the contras of the final $40-million payment of military assistance approved during the current fiscal year, Democratic leaders conceded that they are two votes short of the majority needed to block the controversial aid.

“I don’t think there’s any possibility the $40 million can be stopped,” Senate Majority Leader Robert C. Byrd (D-W.Va.) said.

The likelihood of defeat was particularly disappointing to liberal Democrats in the Senate, such as Alan Cranston (D-Calif.), who predicted after Democrats won control of the chamber in last November’s election that they would have enough votes to halt continued military assistance to the rebels fighting the leftist Sandinista government.

Death Changed Equation

Byrd noted that the margin would be narrower if the late Sen. Ed Zorinsky (D-Neb.), an opponent of aid to the contras who died less than two weeks ago, had not been replaced by a Republican, David Karnes, who supports contra aid.

Sources said the Senate Democratic leadership also is reluctant to engage in arm-twisting to win a narrow majority against contra aid because President Reagan has said he would veto the measure, and it would appear to be virtually impossible to get the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto.

Nevertheless, Senate Democrats still hope that the aid can be halted when Congress later this year considers Reagan’s request for $105 million for the rebels in fiscal 1988, which begins Oct. 1.

The House last week voted to impose a moratorium on contra aid until the Administration satisfactorily accounts for all the money the rebels have received so far. Democrats are not expected to bring the House-passed measure up for a vote in the Senate because of a threatened filibuster by conservative Republicans.

51-49 Vote Expected

Sen. Lowell P. Weicker Jr. (R-Conn.), a liberal Republican and strong opponent of contra aid, said that if the measure to halt military aid to the contras fails by a vote of 51 to 49--as now is expected--the Democrats will “forfeit their right to criticize” the President’s policy in Central America.

Weicker said he was surprised that many senators continue to support the program, even though it is apparent that the contra leadership is divided and there is evidence that the rebels actually received money diverted from the sale of U.S. arms to Iran or about $30 million that the White House solicited as a donation from Saudi Arabia.

“This is a sleazy policy, and it will always be attended by sleazy details,” he said.

Freshman Sen. Brock Adams (D-Wash.) said he was elected last November by voters who oppose the program of assistance to the Nicaraguan rebels. He said he can assume that recent disclosures have served only to increase the sentiment against the policy in his state.

Strategy Unchanged

But staunch defenders of contra aid argued that the Iran-contra affair did nothing to change the strategic reasons for the United States to support opponents of the Marxist-led regime in Nicaragua.

“If the flickering light of freedom goes out in Central America, in our front yard, it will have been blown out in Washington and in the Congress of the United States,” Sen. Jesse Helms (R-N.C.) said.

The measure under consideration would not entirely halt aid to the contras, but it would stipulate that none of the money could be used for the weaponry that the rebels claim they need to wage an effective battle.

Opponents of the measure, led by Sen. Alan Dixon (D-Ill.), argued that it would be unfair to terminate military assistance in the current fiscal year that was previously approved last year. Congress had approved $100 million of aid to the rebels for fiscal 1987, which began last Oct. 1, but only $60 million of that amount has been released.

“The credibility of the U.S. Congress is on the line,” Dixon said.

The Sandinistas hope to combat the black market with a chain of dollar stores. Page 9.